Is the P.1 lineage more transmissible compared to others?
Based on what is known so far, the researchers estimate the P.1 lineage is 1.4 to 2.2 times more transmissible. This might change over time.
Is the P.1 lineage better at escaping immunity compared to other lineages?
Partial immune escape is likely. It is not possible to provide an exact figure but it is estimated that P.1 evades between 25 and 61% of immunity conferred from prior infection with previously circulating strains. What this means is that 100 people previously infected with non-P.1 SARS-CoV-2 lineages that circulated in Manaus, between 25 to 61 of them could be re-infected if they are exposed to P.1 in Manaus.
Is the P.1 lineage more deadly compared to other lineages?
The study found P.1 is associated with a 1.1-1.8 times increase in risk of mortality compared to previously circulating variants in Manaus. However, the health system in Manaus collapsed during this second wave and so it is unclear whether the increased risk of mortality is due to P.1 or the strain on the health system imposed by the large second wave. Uncertainty surrounding this effect and how it generalises outside the context of Manaus is therefore considerable.
Will vaccines still protect us from infection with the P.1 lineage? Vaccines can protect from infection and protect from disease or death. This study shows evidence that the virus may cause more severe disease. However, this study only considered acquired immunity and did not study vaccine effectiveness. There is no evidence that the current vaccines are less effective against the P.1 lineage.
