Washington States projection model is showing April 19th to be the peak for this area. Seems to me that can only be true for Seattle proper as that was the start, and is densely populated (relatively). Much of the rest of the state is VERY different and I would think it’s curve would differ quite a bit, time wise.
When this is all over with, and they either have a cure & vaccine... Or just decide to ignore everyone dying going forward, like they have with H1N1 after '09... There will need to be a study done comparing the US per/cap death rate, with Sweden, Brazil & Belarus. Apparently those countries have decided they will NOT go into lock down, and will let nature take it's course. They are detaining people coming into their countries... but not shutting down businesses & schools.
If the death rates in those countries don't end up being 10-20x per capita higher than the final US numbers... : (Remember the US predictions of 100k-200k if we shut down & 2.2Million Dead if we left everything open) Then the question will have to be asked... Was it really worth destroying the US economy over Covid-19? That is not a question that can currently be answered... so don't even try. We won't know the answer until the final analysis, 2 or 3 yrs down the road.
But remember SERS & Swine Flu ultimately never came close to the dire predictions. Even though swine flu (H1N1) infected 60million... it never killed anywhere near what was predicted in 2009 In fact H1N1 has killed more people this year, than it did in 2009... but no one cares anymore. Because there's a new kid on the block... One that's finally managed to shut down the country and put the printing presses in overdrive. A few years from now we will know whether or not it was worth the cost.
