If you go to

http://www.predictcovidrisk.com/

and click the circles for different ages, gender, skin color, diseases, etc
the answer you get is only the % increase in death risk compared to a 65 year old white female with no illnesses whatsoever.

Neither the website or the research paper tells what the fatality rate is for a 65 year old white female.

The research paper does tell that there were 54,669 patients
out of the 534,023 patients
who had no illnesses or obesity ( no co-morbidities)
and that 4.7% of these 54,669 still died of Covid-19

The average age of the whole group was 77 years old
so I am going to assume the 54,669 were 77 years old.
The whole group was 57% female and 43% male so I am going to assume the 54,669 were those % gender too.

Going to the website I found that 77 year old white females had 55.6% increased risk of death compared to 65 year old females without co-mobidities.

Going to the website I found that 77 year old white males had 185% increased risk of death compared to 65 year old females without co-morbidities.

Let us mathematically call X the unknown “all skin colors combined” female 65 year old fatality rate

We get an equation

{X times (1.556) x (.57) } + {X times (1+1.85) (.43)} = 0.047

Solving for X

X = 0.022

Which means a 2.2% fatality rate for “All Skin colors combined” 65 year old American females

( I think this simple estimate is somewhat higher than the absolute true percent of White females because an unknown fraction of non white females are still in the value X)

Now that this number for the “base” fatality rate is estimated you can use

www.predictcovidrisk.com

To guess-ti-mate fatality rate.

A 90 year old white female with several co-morbidities still has a 95% chance of surviving

On the other hand
an 85 year old Black male with obesity, high blood pressure, tobacco use, and sickle cell disease has a
73% chance of surviving

I decided to do a second rough calculation.
Since Males had a 1.88 greater chance of death from Covid I suspect men were a greater fraction of those who died and so increased the male % to 75% and female drops to 25%.
The paper does state that the average age of those that died was 80 years old, so I used 80 instead of 77 years.

(.25) (1.801) X + (.75) (3.287) X = 0.047
This solves to
X = 0.016
So these new assumptions drops the fatality rate for a 65 year old White Female from 2.2% to 1.6%
My gut tells me 1.6% is probably more accurate.

I re-did this calculation again,
now taking into account the higher risk of females who were Black, Hispanic and “Other” skin color,
and assumed like other news accounts have stated that
“Half of all hospital deaths due to Covid were Black or Hispanic”

This drops X to 0.0126
so the fatality rate for White 65 year old females might be 1.26 %

Last edited by 360view; 11/24/20 09:54 AM. Reason: New Assumptions