The official Coronavirus thread

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Well the morons have closed all the dining rooms and bars in Ohio but you can still order takeout or delivery. This will wreck many families on the edge of poverty
Gus

So would getting sick and dying. The difference is death is permanent.

I was suspicious when a few of the big box stores announced on Fri? they were reducing hours of operation "in order to restock".

Nobody is buying TV's CD's, pillows, weed killer, etc.

That doesn't hold water, they normally do it after rush hours when there are less then a handful of shoppers, I know, that's when I'm in the store.

I can't believe its a low skill staff shortage, a lot of people are idle, beginning now.

I believe there is a real supply chain shortage, which they are afraid to announce as it will just ramp up more panic buying, hoarding.

So WH has press conference today and the main message is oddly, with this WH, "buy less"?

With all the food restaurants closing, I would think one would need to "buy more" or is it tomorrow going to be "eat less"?

Sorry, I don't believe very much anymore from the above source.

They did it in IL also

Exactly. Besides, isn't there a relief package coming including paid leave for those who don't have it?

MGM just closed all their "resorts" in Las Vegas, too. I'm not worried about the bosses, they'll be raking it in soon enough. The staff will be hurting economically though.

We are doing the isolation thing. Wife and I are working from home. Kids are both doing school online. Schools seem to be on top of it, they have their lessons and schedules laid out including gym and special subjects which is good. Have to give them credit for that.

Had some things cancelled this weekend due to the virus that I was really looking forward to. Communicating a lot with friends through text, everyone is in the same boat just sitting at home doing nothing or at least most of them are. Some are in denial like it's no big deal and are just going about their business like usual.

My wife is kind of freaking out. Had a neighbor come over to use my drill press today, seemed like she didn't want him to be there. Garage doors wide open, no one has any symptoms. Seemed like he did not think it was a big deal, felt like a weird situation to be in, there was an uneasy tension. She went and bought tons of food last week which I guess was OK since it seems like going out into public is almost a non-option at this point.

Our 11 year old has a heart condition. He is doing about as well as we could hope health wise but his cardiologist called to say we should be prepared to keep him isolated for 8 weeks. 8 weeks. I'm not seeing how that's going to work.

Having no regular sports on TV is brutal. Hockey was going down the final stretch, baseball was about to start, no NCAA tourney...

At least it's been nice out here. Plenty of car and garage and house stuff to work on, maybe I can actually finish some something for once.

11 year old with heart condition, I'm with your wife.

Does she carry?

Ha, right.

You'd never know the kid has a heart condition. The suggestion of prolonged isolation for him is because he is (obviously) more susceptible to get an infection in one of his replaced valves. I'm not overly worried about it at the moment since everything is pretty much shut down around here, there's really nowhere to go. At some point he will have to go back out into the world and he will be fine.

What's amazing is that some of our kids friends' parents are asking about play dates.

Same in Pittsburgh as of midnight for at least two weeks

Nobody is buying TV's CD's, pillows, weed killer, etc.

I chuckled a little at this comment because we were out shopping for a TV today after our (7 year) old one bit the dust yesterday. There's some good deals out there right now.......


Back to virus................I worry a little about being a carrier and not realizing it being around my elderly Mother as much as I am. She's not out and about much regardless, but I'm around her on an almost daily basis. I have to work, I can't stay home. And I'm the one that helps my Mother with her daily chores, shopping, etc.

How do I pronounce this guys last name ? ? ? ANTHONY FAUCI ?

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Anthony_Fauci

Same for me with my mother - i am trying to be more proactive safety-wise


There are some good future travel deals too

NOW ! Ive heard it all ...........

https://www.coinworld.com/news/pape...ce=Lyris&utm_campaign=DigitalEdition

You do what you have to do to save lives. We're not doing enough, and what we are doing, we doing late. It is, however, better than doing nothing.

I know some businesses are going to close over this and that's a tragedy. We're close to a lockdown. My kids and I just stay home. Anything that gets delivered (Amazon, mail) gets put into a big box and zapped with the ozone generator.

We made a pact with our next door neighbors to isolate but still hang out with one another. That has helped a lot with the stir-crazy. The dad and I both agreed that if one family slips (meaning his wife, really), the deal is off.

My kids are young enough to be statistically safe. I'm 57 with sleep apnea and hypertension. I'd really prefer to avoid getting this. If I do, though, I don't want it to be in the middle of the first wave where hospitals are not yet overwhelmed with people are dying in the hallways.

It seems like an extreme over-reaction is in play. Just how lethal is this to an otherwise healthy person? Is Tom Hanks dead yet?
It was such a good thing, seeing so many enjoying the fruits of this great economy. This media induced panic could destroy it.

I've been sequestered at home with my wife because of her knee replacement in erly feb, and am glad I have.
I've finally talked sense to three of our adult children, while the other two (smokers) continue throw caution to the wind.
As I understand from reading and talking with two doctors is the virus effects ones lungs. Reduced lung capacity and scarring are the immediate effect and residual diminished lung capacity may likely be the toll on any individual. Effects seem to balance on the condition of ones lungs going into an infection.
Lets all be safe and considerate of others. Taking an attitude of "young enough" may cost one their life. I'll respect the experts and hope a majority of us get through this.
Let's also hope it was not created in some lab to be a super bug. Whatever it is, it appears to be widespread and well rooted in the populace. How the heck did that happe? Humanity has been forever changed, we will wake up tomorrow and this will be worse. It's real and frankly it's scary. I have not yet wrapped my head around economic effects and can only think dark thoughts on that.
I hope with additional tests there may be a way to corral hot spots to give science time to develop a vaccine. That is the best for now.

f (f)an, lea(f)
aʊ M(O)UTH, h(o)w
tʃ (C)hina, (c)atch
i HAPP(Y), med(i)ocre

I'd think it's prounced Fao-chee with a long o and accent on the chee

We're self isolating too at this point (and other than one engagement earlier today, have been for the last week too).

Keep in mind, self-isolating doesn't mean just sitting at home in the house. Going for a drive should be just fine. Going for walk or hike in a secluded area is just fine. Even if you pass the occasional other person on your walk it's probably fine, so long as you don't cough in each others mouths

The goal is to avoid other people, not just sit in the house and go stir-crazy.

As of 9 PM my wife was still sick with headache, sore throat and fever of 99.4F
I am headache, sore throat, chest pain and 99.2F fever. Not high enough to go for Covid-19 testing.

So not knowing what hit us Sunday morning we are quarantining in place.

That's the way I see it, too. Media-induced mass hysteria. Influenza took over 27,000 people last year. Corona Virus so far has taken 108. Apparently, only the elderly, and those with compromised immune systems and lung issues need seriously worry. But then, look at how many elderly pneumonia takes each year.

What really pisses me off is they've Cancelled the Portland Swap Meet this year!! Both the Expo and PIR are CANCELLED. I look forward to that every year as it's one of few times I get to escape back to civilization.

I suppose luckily for me, back in January, my retarded former employer decided all his problems would go away by firing me. He did have to pay me out nearly 20 large as I'd been at the store almost a decade. When he told me I wasn't going to get my bonus, I slugged the SOB. But that's a whole other story....

So, I've been at home for 2-months living happily off my windfall, catching up on projects and generally being way happier than I used to be. I wish winter were over, that's for sure. But not having to work in a public place anymore with this crazy bug going around.... the idiot did me a favor!

Probably not lethal to an otherwise healthy person. The problem is those healthy people pass it on to people that have underlying medical conditions and the elderly. Consider this, the virus was first identified in one province in China in late November. In less than 4 months it has spread around the entire earth. So when you say things like that what you are really saying is, so what? It's OK that the sick and elderly die.

The CDC, WHO, and every infectious disease expert on the planet seem to disagree with all of the people who have recently earned Facebook medical degrees, so I'll go with the views of the former.

Here's the story of how the virus spread in South Korea. 1 person. That's it. That's all it took.

https://graphics.reuters.com/CHINA-HEALTH-SOUTHKOREA-CLUSTERS/0100B5G33SB/index.html

shutting down large events is the right thing to do.

learn from history.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/us/i...-were-devestating/ar-BB11d77l?li=BBnb7Kz

We should face this with the courage our grandparents and greatgrandparents showed in 1918.

Follow the advice from Dr Fauci in order to free up the USA number of advanced hospital beds and ventilators.

After this is over
strongly urge the powers that be
to fund the Army and Navy to have field hospitals and hospital ships
with enough advanced beds to match what
South Korea has in their system.
The cost of this added equipment will be far less than 1% of the cost of slowing down our vast USA economy with “Social Distancing.”

Why do the South Koreans have this larger capacity of hospital beds?
Because of the constant threat of
surprise attack from North Korea
with Nuclear, Chemical and
BIOLOGICAL weapons.

Its hit bottom here They just closed the Casino up the road from us.Have to wonder how hard it was to get people out.Thats especially if they were on a winning machine.Rocky

Yep, It is called common sense. Some don`t have any.

It does seem a bit odd that they are closing everything ..

I went to town about 15 miles from me, small grocery store but always clean and tidy ..even the crazies had wiped that store out, she said they had came from as far as 100 miles to buy all the TP ..nuts

Guitar...

That is funny.

Did I hear correctly the being passed paid sick leave act exempts companies with over 500 workers?

looks like it: Bill <- Click Unless ammended

Re the 1918 Pandemic there was a lot of unintentional social distancing with few cars, few roads and thoroughfares, lots of farms and relatively small population compared with today.

what I want to know is, what is the difference between this virus and every other flu and pneumonia virus that is continually circulating, killing tens of thousands of people in our country every year? Why is this the one that has to have the major panic and over-reaction? Why not any of the others?

Did Tom Hanks die?

I think the Northern Italy private party open air balcony Opera serenades are quaint and make for good press on the nightly news.

But I'd be damned if I want to be on my balcony during a national pandemic quarantine with nearby neighbors of unknown COVID status singing their lungs out for their 15 minutes of fame.

Hope this doesn't catch on in our inner cities.

Just sayin.

The following is from a doctor friend of mine in NY - just got this this AM:

Eric,

That is so funny but true!

So in response to a few emails ago- yes remdesrivir may have activity against this virus- and I am certain it will be tried in sicker patients.

There are a few other drugs that may be effective as well- at least in mitigating some of the symptoms.

In addition- the first human test patient will be vaccinated today. This is unbelievable. Talk about red tape being eliminated. They went from isolating the protein structure of this to making a vaccine to be tested in under 4 months. It will be limited- but I imagine will be widespread by the late fall/early winter at this pace.


Stay safe!


Jim

Fair question. Here is a comparison from the former director of the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention,

https://www.cnn.com/2020/03/14/heal...u-comparison-frieden-analysis/index.html

This SAME thing (symptoms of yours) went through my family the middle of Feb. My youngest daughter (25) got it first - low grade fevers for first 3 days, dry cough, generally feeling lousy all over. Then she started feeling better & was fine a week later. Then I started feeling it on Sunday 2/16. Felt LOUSY all the following week - low grade fevers all week, dry cough, sore lungs (something I've never felt before) for 3 weeks, a little bit of a sore throat & sore ears. I went to my doctor on Sat. 2/22. They did blood work, chest X-ray, urine sample, etc. Gave me a shot of Depomedrol & put me on an antibiotic just-in-case, & 36 hours later I was feeling a lot better. Now - feeling fine. Then my other daughter got it & my wife had symptoms - both had it mild. In my wife, the cough has held-on. We may have very well had this, before all the hype.

Typically, if I get something like this, it's usually in the dead of winter - Dec, Jan. VERY unusual for me to get something like this this time of year. You guys should be fine - just like getting over the flu. Keep us posted!

We're all in this together. Interesting read about Remdesrivir <-click
I think back to when I was first dx with leukemia. I was fortunate to have a family friend with a home 2 blocks from UCSF where I was treated. On their bookshelf was a 1950's version of a Merck Medical Manual. I read about treatments for leukemia. There was none, considered uncurable with 3 month survivability, it recommended trying anything. It mentioned agents like alcohol, chlorine, ammonia, or similar agents.
People are dying, will continue to die, to shrug shoulders is not in my personality.

You are citing an opinion article by an organization that has zero credibility who is using dubious information from an individual who will profit from an overreaction and who also has a political agenda. This is exactly the sort of thing that some of us believe is designed to induce panic.

I'm looking for real facts and real answers about this please.

THERE IS NO VACCINE FOR IT.

A large percentage of flu related deaths tend to be elderly people who are already health compromised and don't get a flu shot. The reason it does not kill as many people every year is because enough people get a flu shot. And even if you get the shot, you can still get the flu but generally symptoms will only be mild which allows your body to fight it off easier. No flu shot, you're on your own.

If you get it the COVID-19 virus it does not necessarily mean you are automatically going to die. Per the CDC/WHO info out there, 80% of people who get it will only experience mild fever cold/flu like symptoms and be over it within a shorter time. But, if you are elderly (60-older) and/or also have an underlying health condition, (name your disease/condition here) you are at a much higher risk of becoming severely ill from complications resulting from contracting the virus. This group of people are the ones who are feeling the brunt of the virus.

Like said already, if you are otherwise healthy, contracting the virus may not necessarily mean anything to you personally but if you somehow mange to contract the virus and continue to spread it through close contact, you are putting exponential numbers of people beyond your immediate family/friend circles at risk. It's not a political issue in any way shape or form, it's a regular-everyday people dying issue. This is why its important not to be cavalier about it and take it seriously.

People in the interior of the country are about a week behind those of us on the coasts which are where most of the points of entry into this country are. Maybe you will get lucky and not have as many cases/deaths as we have had here already. Locking down everything beyond essential services will theoretically slow the spread of the virus but we won't get a real read on it until we can do mass testing to see who actually has the virus.

In a way, our situation could wind up being worse than China's since the virus has been allowed to run unchecked through our population without any real mitigation. Good or bad, China has the ability to enforce these severe draconian lock down measures and also can build hospitals with 1,000s of beds in 10 days. We don't even have widely available testing yet so we really have no clue how many people may actually have it. We probably won't see the peak of cases for a little while. Hopefully the lock down will slow it a little.

I'm hearing through the grapevine Texas is going to join the early states in shutting down businesses and those who can will be working from home. Supposed to be announced @ 6:00 PM today, I can't find a documented source yet. This is making 1938 look like a cake walk.

Wow, did you really read any of the links posted in this thread? How about the one on how it exploded in South Korea by just one person? If you can't see how highly contagious this virus is and how lethal it is to the elderly and those with underlying medical conditions as compared to other viruses then I don't know what to tell you. Maybe you should try doing some research on your own since you don't trust anyone else. BTW, whether Tom Hanks lives or dies is really of no consequence to the situation.

in regards to the need for ventilators, where are they made ?
do we even make components for them ?

next 48-72 hours should be interesting in this area.

Lets see if I stay within the guardrails here. Heard today Individual #1 is tele-conferencing with 50 officials in every state.

I suspect that will be a nationwide roll out of more robust isolation measures, in that all responses to the pandemic seemed to be driven by the sinking dow jones.

How did I do?

I give you an A+.

Then why am I wearing the dunce cap?

depends on where you are positioned in the class.

if you are at the blackboard, could you be considered the "head of the class" ?

Here's how fast it will be spreading here. Not in this article but 40 year old DiCenso reported she was at women's day march,city council meeting, assoc. meeting,several restaurants then bar hopping and hugging everyone because it was her birthday. Without any symptoms she has infected an unknown amount of people. The elderly and sick that contacted her or people who had contact with her risk a chance of death. I would rather stay home for a couple of weeks if it even prevents 1 death. These old people are somebody's parents.

https://www.sj-r.com/news/20200315/springfield-park-board-member-confirms-she-has-covid-19

It's also not just solely old people with comorbidities that are having trouble with it.

https://www.nola.com/news/coronavirus/article_35531ff4-66d9-11ea-95b0-7797f71d169a.html

(Healthy 45 year old male on a ventilator with covid-19 and double pneumonia)

A, if you wrote: ".....in that the sinking dow jones seemed to have driven all responses to the pandemic" then A+

Maybe this article will be useful?

https://www.newsweek.com/newt-gingr...ica-must-act-now-act-big-opinion-1492270

wth does the 3rd from the last paragraph have to do with what is needed right now.

That was a rather sobering read. The way it starts out so relatively benign, and the way seemingly the fevers rise and fall over days and then it goes quickly downhill even when under a Dr's supervision.

It was 6 days ago...

It does not matter right now if what we have is Covid-19 or the common Flu going around. What matters is SOMEONE was sick and decided it was nothing and went out in public to spread the wealth. That person is one of the many that did not take precautions and the MAIN reason these Virus's become Pandemic's.
My wife and I are breaking the chain by NOT going out and staying in isolation.

So, the few on here that think this is a hoax, I hope (and pray) that you recover 100% from this virus WHEN it hits you. Its not IF if you do not take heed and protect yourself and your love ones. But it may skip you and hit your mother/sister/child because you though "Its nothing to worry about".

And as of this morning, Wife still same and running 100.2F. I am the same and running 100.8F. Still below the local guidelines for the Covid-19 testing. It is so far better for us to stay isolated. Our son and daughter call a few times a day so we have that lifeline.

You know it's deadly when isis who uses suicide bomber says not to enter Europe.

https://www.wsj.com/articles/notable-quotable-isis-on-the-coronavirus-11584314005

https://www.cdc.gov/

Can I have some pablum to go with that?

Ohio postponing tomorrow's election, closing additional businesses (gyms, rec centers, movie theaters, several others).

Just read this one - (the stat tables do not show here): Here's the link: https://www.americanthinker.com/blog/2020/03/covid19_the_numbers_tell_the_story.html

Covid-19: The numbers tell the story
By Marc Shepard


By merging datasets recently made available by the World Health Organization, the Centers for Disease Control and Johns Hopkins University, I’ve gathered some truly fascinating trend statistics on the global penetration of Covid-19 which I’m now prepared to share. There are 20 infected countries on page one of my analysis – and these are their stories.

Coronavirus (Covid-19) Global Penetration Statistics by Country as of 3/14/2020 08:00 GMT



Data Image Copyright © 2020 by Marc Sheppard

You’ll notice that this particular data-snapshot contains population, new cases reported, deaths and recoveries by country of exposure. I’ve added 5 columns for each metric: total, today, last 5 days, 6-10 days ago, and 11-15 days ago are calculated for each in order to spot trends.

I’ve also added percentages of cases per population, fatalities per caseload, and recoveries per caseload, by country and worldwide.

The 2020 populations came courtesy of a UN dataset which I joined to an ECDC dataset for daily new case and death details and a JHU-CSSE dataset for recovery details. The latter 2 are updated daily at 0800 GMT.

I was tempted to submit the result-set without comment, but perhaps I should get the conversation started.

Coronavirus (Covid-19) – By the Numbers

Note: When reading this section, please keep in mind that its analysis was penned based on older data (3/14/20). I’ve added an update including latest data table in the final section. Together, the 2 days’ data tell quite the fast-paced story. Hang on to your hat.

Now then, I’ve sorted the result-set descending by caseload, which, of course, puts the country where it all began, China, on top by a wide margin with 80,973 confirmed cases, 3,194 deaths and 64,196 patients recovered. Given a population of 1.44 Billion, that’s a 0.005626 % infection rate (that’s 1 in 19,011); a 3.94 % mortality rate and a 79.28 % recovery rate thus far.

Additionally, over the past 15 days, cases and deaths are both trending WAY down while recoveries trend up. A great sign of successful countermeasures policy.

A note on mortality rates – There’s high confidence that all are quite overstated in the case of Covid-19, due primarily to its tendency to manifest light or zero symptoms in over 80% of its hosts, who subsequently dismiss their illness as a common cold. As such, the denominator of its mortality calculations are heavily understated, causing the overstatement of the calculated percentage. As testing becomes more widespread, this problem should self-correct.

That said, to say that Italy is less encouraging than China would be quite the understatement. Italy places with 17,660 cases, 1,268 deaths and 1,439 recoveries. Italy has the highest mortality rate (in the top 20) at 7.18% and more than half its cases (10,285) were reported in the past 5 days (very bad). And of all nations with populations exceeding 500,000, Italy ranks #1 in infected rate at 0.029209 % (that’s 1 in every 3,424 people).

But it’s the past 15 days which concern me the most. 11-15 days ago, there were 1852 new cases. 6-10 days ago, 4873. And the 10,285 in the past 5 days represents 58% of the nation’s cases. Hmmmmm.

Italian fatalities in the past 15 days, in 5-day increments were 63, 286 and 902. In the latest data, they reported 252 Covid-19-related deaths.

Italian recoveries in the past 15 days, in 5-day increments were 440,440, and 817. The latest data reported 394 Covid-19 recoveries.

The show position goes to, of all places, Iran. 11,364 cases, 514 deaths and 2,959 recoveries. It has the 2nd highest mortality rate at 4.52 % and 42% of its cases (4,798) were reported in the past 5 days. Infection rate is a moderate 0.01353 % (1 in 7,390).

Cases reported in the past 15 days, in 5-day increments were 2,091, 4,230 and 4,798. The latest alone they reported 1289 Covid-19 cases.

Iranian fatalities in the past 15 days, in 5-day increments were 51, 117 and 320. In the latest data, they reported 85 Covid-19-related deaths.

Iranian recoveries in the past 15 days, in 5-day increments were 738, 1387, and 825. In the latest data, they reported NO Covid-19 recoveries.

S Korea’s (#4) infection rate (0.015772 %) is similar to Iran’s. But check out the declining cases, flat fatalities, and rising recoveries over the past 15 days, while Spain (#5), France (#6) and Germany (#7) cases and fatalities have exploded in that time, although recoveries show a favorable trend.

Here at home (#8), as of 3/14/2020 datasets, there are only 2,174 confirmed cases in the USA. That’s a 0.000007 % rate (1 in 152,255). And, not to minimize these passings, but for all the hype -- There’ve been only 47 deaths attributed to the virus (mortality = 2.16 %) in America ever.

But US cases in the past 15 days, in 5-day increments were 65, 429 and 1620. In the latest data, they reported 511 new Covid-19 cases. And almost 75% of cases were reported in the past 5 days. Definitely on a steep rise.

And US fatalities reported in the past 15 days, in 5-day increments were 9, 12 and 26. In the latest data, they reported 6 Covid-19 deaths.

Pretty similar to Spain, France and Germany.

Except that US recoveries in the past 15 days, in 5-day increments were 0, 0, and 5. In the latest data, there were NO Covid-19 recoveries.

But remember, we’re just getting started here.

The hope, of course, is that the American path more closely follows that of China than Italy or Iran. But that road may be a rocky one, as China’s authoritarian government employed measures which either wouldn’t or couldn’t ever fly here in the States.

Well, most of them anyway. Seems we’re just beginning to test what will and won’t fly here when citizens are freaked. Aggressively forced “social distancing” measures, including cancellation of sports events and closing of theaters, seemed unthinkable just a week or two ago. Never happen here, right? Tell that to “March madness” fans or lovers of the Great White Way.

And where do you suppose the idea of extending school vacations began? If the query evoked images of Pandas and chopsticks, you’re getting warm.

Of course, obliging citizens to wear protective masks, enforced by tracking systems resident on their phones couldn’t happen here either, right? Or 50 million people on forced lock-down as was the city of Wuhan and nearby towns in Hubei province as they received mandatory quarantine?

And even if such draconian measures were adopted, they’d come with no guarantees. In Italy, a similar albeit less military shutdown effectively quarantined 100,000 people. Schools were suspended, travel restrictions were imposed, public swimming pools and parks remain closed. And yet – 252 people died there in the latest data.

And just imagine building not one, but two hospitals in as many weeks here. By the time you completed the paperwork, inspections, zoning abatements, environmental sign-offs, permits and myriad other “particulars” required before you even broke ground, the crisis would have ended, and not well, I dare say.

Now -- Let’s look at the latest data

Coronavirus (Covid-19) Global Penetration Statistics by Country as of 3/15/2020 08:00 GMT



Data Image Copyright © 2020 by Marc Sheppard

I just downloaded the latest datasets and reran my analysis code. Let’s take a look.

China still looking good – only 22 new cases and 9 new deaths, and 1464 new recoveries. Korea added 76 cases (compared to 107 yesterday) and only 3 deaths.

On the bleaker side, in the latest data, Spain added 1522, France 838 and Germany 733 cases, compared to 1227, 785 and 693, respectively. New deaths were 15, 12 and 3, respectively. Then again, Spain registered 324 recoveries today – that’s 62.66% of Spain’s recoveries, all in 1 day.

Iran added 1,365 cases and 97 deaths since yesterday.

But Italy only added 90 new cases today (compared to 2,547 yesterday) and 527 recoveries, but also 173 new deaths, bringing their mortality to 8.12 % and infection rate to .029357 % (1 in 3,406).

And the US? Up 777 cases to 2,951 and 10 deaths in the latest data. That still equates to nearly 75% of US cases being reported in the past 5 days. Infection rate has risen to 0.000892 % (that’s 1 in 112,108 Americans, still a VERY low number). Still only 5 recoveries in past 15 days, but that corresponds to the low age of the caseload here. US Mortality is a nominal 1.93%, but AGAIN, this figure is overblown as previously explained.

To recap – Europe could be in real trouble. While Spain, France and Germany are in the midst of surges in both cases and fatalities (notwithstanding the latter dropping off a bit today), they’re in relatively good shape compared to Italy. With 58% of its 17,660 new cases and 71% of its 1268 deaths occurring in the past 5 days (as of yesterday), and 48 % of its 17,750 new cases and 67.80 % of its 1,441 deaths occurring in the past 5 days (as of today) the numbers don’t tell a promising story for Italy, notwithstanding today’s “better” results.

Asia appears to be in much better shape, with numbers for high case-counts China and South Korea apparently on track for a happy ending.

The fact that neither Africa nor South America appear to be infected (yet) is telling. Or is it?

And what does it all mean for America, whose numbers suggest a story told with a decidedly European accent?

I hear a lot of talk of the need to “flatten the curve” of new cases. As a data analyst rather than physician or epidemiologist, it seems to me that the recovery and mortality rates are comorbid indicators, of equal if not greater significance to the case-count as together they measure the severity of the disease rather than its proliferation. And that, my friends, may very well determine just how this story ends.

Graphic credit: Pickpik

Marc Sheppard is a data analyst, software engineer, and writer. He’s been a frequent contributor to American Thinker and welcomes your mshep@optonline.com.

One of the fastest and already proven treatments that could help....

https://medicalxpress.com/news/2020-03-antibodies-covid-survivors-patients.html

Sample quote

With a vaccine for COVID-19 still a long way from being realized, Johns Hopkins immunologist Arturo Casadevall is working to revive a century-old blood-derived treatment for use in the United States in hopes of slowing the spread of the disease.

With the right pieces in place, the treatment could be set up at Johns Hopkins University in Baltimore within a matter of weeks, Casadevall says.

The technique uses antibodies from the blood plasma or serum of people who have recovered from COVID-19 infection to boost the immunity of newly infected patients and those at risk of contracting the disease. These antibodies contained in the blood's serum have the ability to bind to and neutralize SARS-CoV-2, the virus that causes COVID-19. Casadevall—a Bloomberg Distinguished Professor of molecular microbiology and immunology and infectious diseases at the Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health and School of Medicine—published a paper on the proposal today in The Journal of Clinical Investigation.

"Deployment of this option requires no research or development," he says. "It could be deployed within a couple of weeks since it relies on standard blood-banking practices."

In this case, physicians would ask patients who recover from COVID-19 to donate their blood, from which sera would be isolated. After processing the serum and removing other toxins or trace illnesses, it can be injected into sick patients and those at risk of contracting the disease. The procedure for isolating serum or plasma is a long-established technology that can be performed using equipment normally found in hospitals and blood-banking facilities, and recent advances make it as safe as a blood transfusion, Casadevall says.

End quote

https://medicalxpress.com/news/2020-03-simple-calm-coronavirus-uncertainty.html

Sample quote

"The human mind is automatically attracted to the worst possible case, often very inaccurately," says Martin Seligman, who founded the field of Positive Psychology and runs Penn's Positive Psychology Center. "Catastrophizing is an evolutionarily adaptive frame of mind, but it is usually unrealistically negative."

To refocus the mind, Seligman suggests a simple exercise called "Put It in Perspective," which starts by conjuring the worst-case scenario, which our minds tend to do first, then moves to best-case scenario, and finishes with the most likely scenario. The idea is to redirect your thoughts from irrational to rational.

End quote

In a 'movie' about rushing a vaccine out for a minor virus. While not based on true facts, they did enough research of the worlds medical records to write the script.

Movie I AM LEGEND

https://medicalxpress.com/news/2020-03-coronavirus-vaccine-volunteer-1st-shot.html

OMEGA MAN - Heston 1970s... among other virus movies...

Someone mentioned the US Navy having Hospital ships to house these quarateened people. That I know they have only 2 and I do not know the status of them. You can read about them here http://www.navalorder.org/articles/2016/8/28/an-overview-of-hospital-ships

Most of the WW2 Hospital ships were AH- and were US Army Hospital (AH) ships piloted by US NAVY crews. I had a few family members serve on board these ships in WW2.
AH-6 USS Comfort was decommissioned is used as a training ship.
AH-7 USS Hope was scrapped in 1978.
AH-8 USS Mercy was scrapped in 1970.

TODAY’S HOSPITAL SHIPS
USNS MERCY
Today, the Navy operates two dedicated hospital ships, the USNS Mercy (T-AH-19). and the USNS Comfort (T-AH-20). Both ships were converted from San Clemente-class supertankers. Mercy was on line in 1986 and Comfort launched in 1987. They are huge, equivalent to the height of a 10-story building and the length of three football fields. Both serve as 70,000-metric-ton symbols of how much America cares as a nation and as a people. If a tanker can be transformed into a symbol of hope, consider how the Mercy and Comfort transform the health-care professionals aboard.

Six Bay Area counties just issued a stay in place order.

That was here. I am in North Kenner and the hospital is the one I had chemo in.
We also have a large undocumented amount of persons here.

NSAIDS and COVID19

https://www.snopes.com/fact-check/covid-19-nsaids-ibuprofen/

Although Snopes declares “unproven”
the majority of the MD ask by Snopes seem to say it is good advice regardless because of NSAID induced Liver damage and immune system suppression.

Snopes? Really? Yeah I'm taking their advice. Pretty much everything is unproven at this point since it is so new.

Hospital ships of the past were basically floating ambulances with staff to support injured.
IIt would be nice if the thousands of storage containers could be modified, insulated and made washable/sanitizable and pressed into service?

https://medicalxpress.com/news/2020-03-coronavirus-drugs.html

To be blunt, the ONLY places to rely on for DEFINITIVE information about the COVID-19 virus are the US CDC and The World Health Organization. Anything else is nonsense. Period.

CDC COVID-19

WHO COVID-19

If everyone took a minute to comprehend the gravity of the situation and willingly follows the guidelines recommended by the CDC and WHO to prevent the spread of the virus, we will beat it in short order. If people continue to mistrust that information and ignore the warnings, we will be in for a long, uphill battle.

I for one am not looking forward to being holed up in my house for the next two months.

Isn't there a concept tossed around that Viruses like this, as they flush thru society, they become, less lethal, in that the most robust virus strains kills off the (ie self limiting) host, and the weaker versions last longer, and therefore can spread farther?
A lot would depend on how fast it mutates.

All to mean, if you caught COVID from a person who succumbs, you might be at greater risk then from some one who recovers?

1 person is all it ever takes, flu, chicken pox, common cold etc.

These "experts" never seem to compare stats to other outbreaks like H1N1 Swine Flu. How many cases how fast, vs how many fatalities over the same time frame.

The Spanish Flu which was an H1N1 virus, spread across the globe like wildfire and killed millions and I think all you had to do to be in the risk of dying group was to be still breathing. Everybody was at risk because apparently when that virus sprang to life there was very little natural Human immunity to it. I read somewhere that that's the same reason this Corona Virus is claimed to be so dangerous, very little natural Human immunity and yet the serious risk group is actually quite limited given its pandemic status.

If we were this deep into "just the flu" season, everybody on this board would know somebody with the flu if they didn't already have it themselves. I'm just not seeing that kind of contagious spread.

While I don't deny there is serious risk to some by ignoring the whole thing, this mass hysteria reaction just defies logic and people that stand to make a lot of money off the fear of the virus or stand to loose a lot of money from it seem to be pouring gas on the fire either from their actions or lack thereof.

Kevin

Wow, so you are saying should we have another outbreak like the first H1N1, Spanish flu it's OK because the serious risk group is small? You know, the elderly and the medically compromised? Don't worry kids, it's just the old people, go out and have a good time!

Have you read anything on what is going on Italy? Their health care system is overrun, Because of the lack of available hospital beds and equipment like respirators they are having to make decisions on who gets treatments. The more likely to succumb to the virus you are the less likely you will be treated. You are also saying China and South Korea over reacted? Even when they have the capability to address large scale needs? The whole reason for the actions is so we don't have a repeat of the original H1N1 outbreak. This is not "just the flu" for many people. Besides there are flu shots every year which although not totally effective, they do keep the number of cases down. There are also therapeutic treatments for the flu. If I got the flu I would be concerned about getting pneumonia and would seek treatment immediately. If I get Covid-19 there probably wouldn't be a treatment in the world that would save me from getting pneumonia, and getting pneumonia again would, in all probability kill me.

But I guess in your mind it's OK since I'm 63.

The ill are not bound to old age. I'm surprised that Nevada is reporting:
A male in his 20s who is isolating at home and is a close contact of a confirmed case.
A female in her 40s who is hospitalized in good condition.
A female in her 50s who is hospitalized in stable condition.
A male in his 30s who is isolated at home.
A female in her 30s. No additional details are available at this time.
A female in her 70s. No additional details are available at this time
A male in his 50s. No additional details are available at this time.
A male in his 30s who is isolating at home.
Previously Reported Case Updates
A male in his 40s who is isolating at home.
A male in his 60s who is isolating at home.
A male in his 60s who is in serious condition.
A female in her 70s who is isolating at home and is a close contact of a previously reported case.
A male in his 60s who is isolating at home and is a close contact of a previously reported case.
A female in her 40s who was hospitalized on March 8. She is isolated and in stable condition. This individual is a visitor from New York. She arrived in Las Vegas on March 5, and attended the Women of Power Summit at The Mirage.
A female in her 70s with underlying medical conditions with in-state travel history to Reno, Nev., and no out-of-state or international travel history. The patient was asymptomatic while traveling. The patient remains hospitalized in serious condition.
A male in his 50s with a travel history to Washington state. The patient remains hospitalized in serious condition.
This partially supports what you write GJ and begs the question as to why precious hospital beds are occupied by youngish and perhaps carefree adults.
As I get ready to turn in for the day I listened to the news, knowing that tomorrow the sun will rise and more tests will be reported and the numbers of ill and deceased will have increased. It will be a great day when the numbers growth slows and with hope stop.
Only after we lay the unfortunate to rest will we realize the toll our world has borne. This will test the resolve and stability of nations and there will be puddles of tears at feet of lady liberty.

Not what I'm saying at all and if I was you I would be VERY concerned.

All I was trying to say was that if this virus doesn't have any natural Human immunity to deal with as I've heard claimed, it should be blazing through the population much like the first H1N1 did, not by the dozens here and there. I know that's an over simplification but if I'm in your shoes I'm not putting a lot of faith in any "measures", I'm doing what you have done, headed for the hills and avoid all contact with the outside world as is possible. Unavoidable contact would be made on my conditions from a safe distance.

Oh and I'm 62 for a few months yet and I've done the heart attack and triple bypass too. I'm not aware of anything related to those 2 events that put me at much more risk than average, certainly not to the extent that you are dealing with.

I guess I'm just old and paranoid enough to think that maybe that old saw about if a politician doesn't have a crisis to take advantage of, they should invent one is more than a little at play here.

It's certainly working out for the toilet paper and hand sanitizer business.

I wish you well.

Kevin

Twostick, it is blazing through the population, we just don't know it because we're a month behind on the testing that we should be doing. South Korea can test 10k+ per day. I'm not sure if we've tested that many total since January.

It's like we know it's snowing outside, but we haven't looked out to see how deep it is. It could be half an inch, or it could be 3 feet. Without accurate measuring/testing, we're going to open the door and learn we weren't ready for the 4 feet that came down.

Sample quote

But researchers now suggest that humidity, more than heat, may prove effective at choking off the person-to-person transmissions that make the disease’s spread so dangerous.

Still, it’s far from settled science.

Dr. Alan Evangelista, a microbiology and virology professor at St. Christopher’s Hospital for Children in Philadelphia, has studied common coronaviruses and influenza particles for eight years.

He says his research indicates that “the size and overall composition of [the novel coronavirus] particle is similar to other coronaviruses we have tested” -- meaning his findings may shed light on how the coronavirus spreads, and possibly how it dies out.

Those findings show that “transmission is highly efficient under drier and colder conditions,” but far less so in a humid environment.

According to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, the novel coronavirus is thought to spread mainly from person-to-person through respiratory droplets when an infected person coughs or sneezes. Those droplets can be inhaled into the lungs or land in the mouths or noses of people nearby. The droplets are also believed to linger on hard surfaces, which other people might later touch.

“As humidity increases, the viral droplet size is larger and settles out of the air rapidly,” Evangelista found, according to a statement he provided to ABC News on his research.

“In contrast, in low humidity, there is rapid evaporation of respiratory droplets,” he continued. “They remain airborne for prolonged periods, increasing the time and distance over which transmission can occur.”

Evangelista argues that while “there are obviously no guarantees that COVID-19 will behave exactly like the known coronaviruses … the laws of physics should apply.”

End quote

https://abcnews.go.com/Health/humid...rly-specialist-hopeful/story?id=69624343

While this is a bit of hope, and SARS virus decreased in summer, remember that Polio virus used to increase in summer.

The USA is not testing enough due to CDC gov employee ineptitude compared to Korea’s private company approach, but networks originally set up years ago to monitor influenza may be hinting at the % COVID19 in USA:

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/arti...re-with-fever-and-cough-but-it-s-not-flu

Part of the earlier 2003 SARS disease deaths were due to an over reaction by the human being’s immune system called a Cytokine Storm.

This may be happening in COVID-19 too
and would explain why babies get mild symptoms but +60 year olds die.

https://medicalxpress.com/news/2020-03-covid-host-disease.html

Sample quote

Q. Are there ways to measure CSS, and are those measurements being done?

A. An elevated serum ferritin test—which is cheap, readily available and quick—is a good first step for screening for CSS. There are a variety of other tests that can then help confirm or deny the presence of a cytokine storm syndrome.
End quote

The Koreans say 0.65% death rate
WHO says 2.4% death rate.

Good article about why the difference...

https://medicalxpress.com/news/2020-03-coronavirus-deadly-aflu.html

An expert suggests 9 things you should do in everyday life

https://medicalxpress.com/news/2020-03-day-limit-exposure-coronavirus.html

Sample quote

1. Wash your hands at every opportunity with soap and warm water for the recommended 20 seconds. I have observed that most people simply rinse their hands for a few seconds in restrooms, which is not effective in removing viruses. Twenty seconds is the minimum.

2. Avoid handling money. That dollar bill that you get for change could have been in the hands of an infected person just moments before it is placed in your hand. I use credit cards for everything possible, even a cup of coffee.

3. When a signature is required, I carry my own pen and never use the same pen that others have already used. I use only the back of my fingernail to scribble a signature on a pad.

4. Use your left hand (if right handed) to open doors and avoid using door knobs entirely whenever possible.

5. Use only a knuckle to push an elevator button and other common push devices. Your little finger knuckle is least likely to be used on your face.

6. Avoid using hand rails unless you are falling. It is common to see people sliding their hand along the rail as they use the steps. Think about how many people have coughed or sneezed before using that same railing.

7. Carry and use a hand sanitizer liberally when in meetings and public places, avoid sharing papers and objects that others have touched.

8. Hold your breath immediately if someone around you sneezes or coughs and then distance yourself by 6 feet.

9. If someone behind you in a line sneezes or coughs, let them in front of you.

its been around since December
I got it in Jan went to Doc
was told it was a bacterial infection and not the Flu,
hit my lungs hard but I quit smoking years ago or it would of been worse if I smoked
a man made virus being reported on by unreliable sources
even the CDC numbers are voodoo..

the fearmongering is out of control..
if the sick and weak are the most vulnerable
why aren't they being isolated instead of disrupting everyone's lives???

This is basically a cold virus which might have been around for months before it was officially named. It has caused a certain number of deaths as all viruses do, but it is an enormous stretch to call this one “a pandemic” because most of the time you just sneeze and have a runny nose for a few days.
We don’t know its lethality percentage because normally we do not “test for” a cold. We do not have “confirmed cases” because we do not bother to “confirm” them. Because nearly always you just get over it.
To say that it “leads to viral pneumonia” is factually true but not inevitable. Likewise, to that it “spreads exponentially” is true of all viral and bacterial infections. So, what the public is being sold is factually true in all cases, but not contextual. “Thousands of more people might test positive” simply because “now we are testing.” But, in general, “virus tests” are not targeted to identify a particular strain – they’re targeted to predict whether a particular medication might work. And we are already seeing that while “rhinoviruses” and “coronaviruses” (achoo!!) are as common as ever they were, we have vastly and wrongly over-reacted here.
The actual science does not support what we did, nor does it support the hypothesis that “within 14 days it will all be over.” The government has vast powers to enforce public health controls, but it had no true justification to get “trigger-happy” now.

♦ FACT: 98 to 99% of the American people tested, who have symptoms (similar to flu), test negative for the Wuhan novel coronavirus (COVID-19). We are spending hundreds of billions, and disrupting all facets of life and liberty, to avoid a virus almost no-one carries.
If they can’t get math right, why are we trusting their biology?

If Dr. Fauci’s magic theories are correct, then by THIS Friday there should be tens of thousands of people testing positive for Coronavirus. If not….
we’ve destroyed the U.S. economy , and we’ve wiped out tens of trillions in U.S. wealth. for no legit reason..

well except for one I'm not allowed to mention here...

And then

No amount of information from people with knowledge, education, and actual experience is enough to convince the willfully ignorant. That's my polite version of Ron White's famous quote.

This is from the Toronto Globe and Mail, written by the retired Chief Medical Officer for The Province of Ontario, who was also Chief of Staff at a major Toronto hospital during the SARS epidemic.

I think he checks all 3 of your boxes and I agree with his assessment.

https://www.theglobeandmail.com/opi...coronavirus-does-not-register-as-a-dire/

Kevin

Part of the problem is the unknown, we simply don't know enough about this particular virus or the eventual outcome. Have any of you ever heard the phrase "Better safe than sorry"? We may never truly know just how bad it may have been but, if history shows we over reacted rather than under reacted I'm fine with that.

So Flypaper was the first case of CV in the USA. Moparts is AMAZING!

[quote=not_a_charger]

No amount of information from people with knowledge, education, and actual experience is enough to convince the willfully ignorant. That's my polite version of Ron White's famous quote. [/quote

Let me expand the info many seem to willfully chose to ignore:

"Subject: Posted by an ER doc I know at Hartford Hospital!

This is a long post addressing two underlying issues with the current response to the pandemic that leave me concerned. It’s the longest post I’ve ever written.

For those of you not taking action, or believing the pandemic to be “over hyped”, you can make fun of me as much as you want now or when this is over. You can make me the subject of memes and post it everywhere. I will pose for the picture. I am not trying to convince you, but I do feel compelled to share information that I deem critical to all of us, which is why I am posting this at all.

WHY YOU SHOULD TAKE 5 MINUTES TO READ AND CONSIDER THE INFORMATION I AM SHARING:

For those of you who don’t know me well, I am analytical and metered. I don’t freak out nor do I respond emotionally. I also don’t post a bunch of [censored] or political or controversial stuff on Facebook. I founded and am CEO of a successful software company that provides SaaS based data, analytics, and dashboards to recruiting departments at companies we all know. As you would expect, I am data driven and fact based. Before founding my company I held executive roles leading very large recruiting teams at some of the world's fastest growing companies such as Starbucks and Google. At Google I was fortunate enough to report to Sheryl Sandberg before she took the Facebook COO role. I was a Chemical Engineering major in college and have a business degree from a top undergraduate business school. I am not one for hyperbole or histrionics. My [censored] factor is close to zero.

I share all this personal information only to help solidify that this post may be worth reading and sharing with others. I would encourage you to forward or share this post at your discretion. Many people do not understand what is happening with the pandemic to the degree required which is why I took the time to write this and share this on Facebook.

Now that I've gotten the introduction out of the way, here are two issues I want to bring to everyone’s attention.

ISSUE ONE: SOCIAL NORMS ARE POWERFUL MOTIVATORS AND GETTING IN THE WAY OF PEOPLE TAKING THE RIGHT STEPS IN RESPONSE TO THE PANDEMIC:

One of the current problems with addressing the pandemic is the social pressures of taking action today. It's awkward, and feels like an over-reaction. The reason it feels like an overreaction is that most people OVERWEIGHT the currently reported cases and inherently UNDERWEIGHT the mathematics of how the virus is spreading and what will happen in about 30 days time. This is because our brains tend to think linearly as opposed to logarithmically. It’s the same reason many people don’t save for retirement or understand compound interest.

To create a new social norm, human beings like to see behavior modeled. This serves as a signal that says, “oh, someone else is doing it so I should do it also.”

SO HERE IS A SOCIAL BENCHMARK FOR REFERENCE - THIS IS WHAT I’VE DONE FOR MY FAMILY TO DATE:

I have already isolated my family. We have canceled EVERYTHING. We have canceled previously scheduled doctor visits. Social get togethers. Normal routine meetings. Everything has been canceled. It's difficult and socially awkward. Some of you think I’m crazy, but I’m doing it not because I am afraid, but because I am good at math (more on that in part 2). I had to have my 16 year old daughter quit her job coaching junior gymnasts at the local gym, with one day’s notice and also tell my kids they can't attend youth group at church. Both of those were tough discussions. I told a very close friend he shouldn’t stay at my house this weekend even though he was planning to and had booked his flight from the Bay Area. I canceled another dear friend’s visit for later this month to go snowboarding on Mt Bachelor.

We are not eating out. Our kids are already doing online school so we don’t have to make changes there. I would not send my kids to school even if they were in public or private school. We have eliminated all non-essential contact with other people. We will only venture out to grocery shop when required. We will still go outside to parks, go mountain biking, hiking, and recreate to keep ourselves sane and do other things as a family, just not with other people. We have stocked up on food and have a supply for ~2 months. We have stocked up on other goods that if depleted would create hardship, like medicines and feminine hygiene products. We have planned for shortages of essential items.

THE REASON I HAVE CHOSEN THIS ROUTE FOR MY FAMILY IS MULTI FACETED:

1. Although my family is considered low risk (I’m 49 in good health, Angi is 46 and in good health, and our kids are 14 and 16), we must assume that the healthcare system cannot help us, because the hospitals will become overwhelmed very quickly. Most American hospitals will become overwhelmed in approximately 30 days unless something changes. More on this in part 2 below. So although we are in great health and unlikely to become gravely ill, the risk is greater if you do not have access to the medical care that you need. This is something for everyone to consider. As a society we are accustomed to having access to the best medical care available. Our medical system will be overwhelmed unless we practice social distancing at scale. That said, the medical teams in Italy are seeing an alarming number of cases from people in their 40s and 50s.

2. It’s not a matter of if social distancing will take place, it’s a matter of when. This is because social distancing is the only way to stop the virus today. As I will explain in part 2 below, starting now is FAR more effective than starting even 2 days from now or tomorrow. This has been proven by Italy and China (and soon to be France and other European countries who have been slow to respond.). Wuhan went on lockdown after roughly 400 cases were identified (and they had access to testing that America has systematically failed to do well to date). The US already has more than 4 times this number of known infected cases as Wuhan did when it was shut down, and our citizens are far more mobile and therefore spreading the virus more broadly when compared to Wuhan. Yet our response is tepid at best.

If hand washing and “being smart” were sufficient Italy would not be in crisis. So I pray the draconian measures are coming from our government, because they are required to stop the spread of the virus. It’s better to start sooner than later as the cost is actually far greater if we wait. I pray they close all schools and non-essential services the way that Italy and China have done.

3. Spreading the virus puts those in the high-risk category at much greater risk. This is the moral argument. It’s a strong argument because there are only two ways, as of today, that the virus can be stopped: let it run its course and infect 100s of millions of people, or social distancing. There is no other way today. If you don’t practice social distancing, people downstream from you that you transmit the virus to will die, and many will suffer.

4. The risk of infection is increasing exponentially, because the quantity of infected people, most who will not show symptoms, is doubling every three days. So the longer you wait to self-isolate, the greater the chance of you or someone you love becoming infected and then you infecting others because more of the population is becoming infected. There are twice as many infected people today as there was on Tuesday.

5. The virus is already in your town. It’s everywhere. Cases are typically only discovered when someone gets sick enough to seek medical attention. This is important as it typically takes ~5 days to START showing ANY symptoms. Here’s the math: For every known case there are approximately 50 unknown cases. This is because if I become sick, I infect several people today, and they infect a few people each tomorrow (as do I), and the total count of infected people doubles every 3 days until I get so sick I get hospitalized or get tested and become a “known case”. But in the time it takes me to figure out I am sick 50 others downline from me now have the virus. So every third day the infection rate doubles until I get so sick that I realize I have the virus an am hospitalized or otherwise tested. Harvard and Massachusetts General Hospital estimate that there are 50x more infections than known infections as reported (citation below). The implication of this is that the virus is already “everywhere” and spreading regardless if your city has zero, few or many reported cases. So instead of the 1573 reported known cases today there are likely 78,650 cases, at least, in the United States. Which will double to 157,300 by this Sunday. And this will double to 314,600 cases by this coming Wednesday. So in less than 1 week the number of total infected in the United States will quadruple. This is the nature of exponential math. It’s actually unfortunate that we are publishing the figures for known cases as it diverts attention away from more important numbers (like the range of estimated actual cases).

6. Some people cannot, or will not, practice social distancing for a variety of reasons and will continue to spread the virus to many people. So everyone else must start today.

The reasons above are why I have begun to practice social distancing. It’s not easy. But you should do it too.

The hospitals will be at capacity and there are not enough ventilators. You will hear a lot about this issue in the coming few weeks... the shortage of ventilators.

ISSUE TWO: MANY PEOPLE ARE FOCUSED ON THE WRONG NUMBERS:

Yes, the virus only kills a small percentage of those afflicted. Yes, the flu kills 10s of thousands of people annually. Yes, 80% of people will experience lightweight symptoms with COVID19. Yes the mortality rate of COVID19 is relatively low (1-2%). All of this true, but is immaterial. They are the wrong numbers to focus on...

The nature of exponential math is that the infection rates start slowly, and then goes off like a bomb and overwhelms the hospitals. You will understand this math clearly in the next section if you do the short math exercise. Evergreen hospital in Seattle is already in triage. I have heard credible reports from people on the ground that they are already becoming overwhelmed. And the bomb won't really go off for a few more days. Probably by Wednesday, March 18th (next week). In just a few days from now we will hear grave reports from Seattle hospitals.

You should assume the virus is everywhere at this point, even if you have no confirmed cases in your area.

YOU SHOULD DO THIS SIMPLE 2 MINUTE MATH EXERCISE (NO REALLY TAKE TWO MINUTES AND DO IT):

To further understand exponential growth, take the number of confirmed cases in your area and multiply by 10 (or 50 if you believe Harvard and Massachusetts General estimations) to account for the cases that are not yet confirmed. If you have no confirmed cases choose a small number. I’d suggest 10 cases in your city, if no cases are yet reported. But you can use whatever number you like. This number of infected people doubles every ~3 days as the infection spreads. So literally take your number, and multiply by 2. Then do it again. Then do it again. Then do it again. Do this multiplication exercise 10 times in total.

2 x 2 x 2 x 2 x 2 x 2 x 2 x 2 x 2 x 2 x (the number of estimated infections in your city today (not just the reported cases)).

This result is the estimate for the actual cases in your area 30 days from now. The math will take 30 seconds to complete with a calculator and it’s worth doing the math to see how it grows. This end number is the number of cases in your city 30 days from today if a large percentage of the population do not practice social distancing.

2 to the 10th power is 1024. When something doubles 10 times, it's the same as multiplying by 1024. The infection rate of the virus doubles every 3 days. In thirty days there will be 1,024 times the number of infected people in your area as there is today if your community does not immediately put social distancing into practice. One thousand and twenty four times as many infected people as there is today, in just 30 days.

Next, divide the final number (the scary big one) you just calculated by the current population of your city and you will be able to get the percentage of people THAT YOU KNOW PERSONALLY who will be infected 30 days from now.

Next take 15% (multiply by 0.15) of that final 30 day number of total infected people. This will provide an estimate of the serious cases which will require acute medical care, and compare it to the number of beds and ventilators available at your local hospital. Google the "number of beds" and the name of your local hospital now. It takes 2 seconds and the number of beds is easy to find. 65% of beds are already occupied by patients unrelated to the coronavirus. St Charles in Bend, Oregon where I live, has 226 beds and the town is roughly 100,000 people. Most hospitals have on average, 40 or fewer ventilators.

These numbers you just calculated are the problem: Too many patients, not enough beds, and a serious shortage of ventilators (the biggest problem) if we don't immediately begint social distancing. More on this biggest problem related to the insufficient quantity of ventilators is below.

COUNTRIES THAT GET OVERWHELMED WILL HAVE A MUCH GREATER MORTALITY RATE BECAUSE THEY WON’T BE ABLE TO ADEQUATELY CARE FOR THE SICK.

And by sick I mean not just coronavirus patients. Your son or daughter that needs acute care surgery this May for his badly broken leg will be attended to by an orthopedic doctor that has been working at maximum capacity and working 18 hour shifts for 7 days every week for 6 weeks because it was required to care for all the coronavirus patients at her hospital. Or the orthopedic surgeon will be sick with the virus and your son or daughter will be operated on by a non-expert or a member of the National Guard. Your elderly Mom that has diabetes and goes into acute distress next month may not receive ANY care because the doctors are consumed and have to prioritize patients based on triage handbooks filled with success rate probabilities. Your sibling’s family that are all injured in a terrible car crash in June will have diminished care. If one of them needs a ventilator there will be none available because all of them will be in use by critical coronavirus patients. Your young friend with cancer and a compromised immune system from treatment will succumb even though the cancer was curable and the treatment was working, because their body was too fragile to combat the coronavirus due to the chemotherapy and they couldn't receive the customized, acute care required due to the hospital being overwhelmed. All of the above is currently happening in Italy, who had the same number of infections we have today just 2 weeks ago. You must start today.

The count of actual virus infections doubles every ~3 days. The news and government agencies are lagging in their response. So we hear that the US only has 1573 cases today (3/12/20), ( see https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/) and it doesn't seem like a lot. It would be better to report the estimated actual cases, since reported cases don’t tell us much. However, we know from China that the actual number of cases are at least an order of magnitude greater than the reported cases, because people get infected and do not display symptoms. In math, an "order of magnitude" means ten times difference, or put another way, a factor of 10. 100 is 10 times greater than 10, so it's an order of magnitude greater.

Harvard Medical School / Massachusetts General Hospital just released their estimate (recording is here: https://externalmediasite.partners.org/…/53a4003de5ab4b4da5…) that the actual cases are 50x greater than the reported cases. So we likely have 75,000 cases in the United States already. The number of reported cases is not that important.

But let’s assume the current number of cases is only 10,000 ACTUAL cases in the United States just to be conservative and model out what will happen:

If we don’t stop the virus from spreading, in 30 days we will have 2 to the 10th power more cases of infected people because the infection count doubles every 3 days (the virus doubles every 3 days and there are 10, 3 day periods in 30 days).

The math: 2 to the 10th power means 1,024 times as many cases as we have today (2 times 2 repeated 10 times).

This number is a catastrophically big problem for all of us: We will have 10 million+ actual cases (10,000 actual cases today x 1,024) in the United States in just 30 days’ time if we continue without extreme social distancing. 10 million people with the virus. And it will keep doubling every 3 days unless we practice social distancing.

15% of cases require significant medical attention, which means that 1.5 million people will require significant medical attention if 10 million people get infected (15% of 10 Million total infections = 1.5 million people requiring hospitalization).

1.5 million hospitalizations is about 50% more than we have beds for at hospitals in the United States. And 65% of all beds are already occupied in our hospitals. But patients with the virus need ICU beds, not just any old hospital bed. Only about 10% of hospital beds are considered intensive care. So we will have a huge bed shortage, but that is not the biggest problem, as we can erect temporary ICU shelters and bring in more temporary beds, as Italy has already done, and California and Washington hospitals have already done. Evergreen Hospital in Seattle has already erected temporary triage tents in the parking lot as of 3/13/20. All regular beds are full at Evergreen Hospital as of yesterday.

Once the government of China, Norway, and Italy came to understand this math, they reacted accordingly and shut EVERYTHING down. Extreme social distancing is the only response available to stop the virus today. The United States is not responding well nor are other countries like France or the UK. Countries that do not respond well will pay a much larger, catastrophic price.

But hospital beds are not the big problem. The lack of ventilators is the big problem. Most estimates peg the ventilators in the United States at roughly 100,000 to 150,000 units. See https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/21149215 (admittedly dated) and https://theweek.com/…/doesnt-have-enough-icu-beds-ventilato…

The primary and most serious comorbid (comorbid is a medical term that means co-existing or happening at the same time) condition brought on by the Coronavirus is something called bilateral interstitial pneumonia which requires ventilators for treatment of seriously ill patients. So if 1.5M people of the 10 million infected 30 days from now require acute care (15% of the 10M estimated total infections), 1.3M may not get the care that they need because we don’t have enough ventilators in the United States. And remember, this is only if ALL OF US EFFECTIVELY start social distancing by April 11th (30 days from today).

BUT IF WE START EXTREME SOCIAL DISTANCING BY MARCH 23 (12 days from this writing), WE AVOID OVER 1.4 MILLION PEOPLE GETTING CRITICALLY ILL AND OVERWHELMING THE HOSPITALS:

If everyone takes extreme measures to social distance, and the United States can dramatically reduce the spread of the virus 12 days from now, the math is very different, as the exponential growth will only be 2 to the 4th power (12 days divided by the doubling rate of every 3 days equals the exponent of 4):

2 x 2 x 2 x 2 = 16

So instead of 10 Million cases in the United States if we wait 30 days, if we act 18 days sooner, we will have only 160,000 cases (16 times the estimated 10,000 actual cases as of today), of which 15% are likely to require critical care. This is 24,000 critical patients (a huge difference compared to 1.5 million acute patients). The difference between taking extreme measures now, versus waiting even a few days, is very large due to how exponents work in math.

THE OUTCOME IS EVEN BETTER IF WE TAKE ACTION IN THE NEXT 6 DAYS: If the vast majority of the population self isolates and implements social distancing in only 6 days from now the exponential math is 2 to the 2nd power (6 days divided by the 3 days it takes the virus to double means the exponent is only 2). In math this is "two squared".

2 x 2 = 4

Multiplied by the estimated 10,000 ACTUAL cases as of today (3/12/20) that means only 40,000 total cases will develop, 15% of which may be critical which is 6,000 critical patients.

This is why you should share this post broadly. If people begin social distancing in the next 6 days it will greatly reduce the impact on all of us. It's why they say a "post goes viral".

SOCIAL DISTANCING WILL REDUCE THE FINANCIAL IMPACT TO YOU AND YOUR FAMILY:

Finally, the longer everyone waits to practice significant social distancing the greater the economic hardship will be on all of us. Lost jobs. Mortgage defaults. Closed businesses. Bankruptcies. All will be minimized if you start social distancing today.

Some of the reasons the economic impacts will be reduced are worth mentioning: If we stop the virus now the overall duration of the outbreak will be far shorter. The stock market will normalize more quickly and recover more quickly. Businesses and people will be able to survive a shorter duration outbreak vs a longer duration outbreak. More companies will avoid bankruptcy if we begin to practice social distancing now.

This is a big financial reason to begin social distancing if you are employed by any company: if companies see that the virus is being slowed, they will be less likely to conduct layoffs. You will be more likely to be laid off or experience a job-related event if we don’t practice social distancing immediately. As an HR executive, I’ve been involved in many, many layoffs. It’s the last thing companies want to do. But if they see that the pandemic will be shorter lived vs long and drawn out, they are less likely to make the permanent decision of laying off staff.

The overall economic impact that hits your bank account will be greater if you wait or you don’t practice social distancing. This is why Norway acted now, because it’s less economic impact to take drastic measures early than to do them later, and it saves a lot of lives and suffering by doing so. And Norway has only one confirmed death as of this writing.

START TODAY. I CAN’T STRESS THIS ENOUGH. YOU MUST START TODAY.

Finally, the article that I posted yesterday written by Tomas Pueyo has been read 7M times in the last 24 hours and has been updated with new information. It’s worth reading again.

Here’s that link.

https://medium.com/…/coronavirus-act-today-or-people-will-d…

Other up to date data I frequently consult regarding the pandemic is here:

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

I hope this is helpful and useful. My brain focuses on the math and I try and be fact based in my analysis and interpretation of how I should respond.

THERE IS MORE INFORMATION IN THE COMMENTS BELOW WORTH READING AND I WILL BE UPDATING THIS POST, AND THE COMMENTS, WITH MORE INFORMATION, (AS OPPOSED TO CREATING NEW POSTS).

MY FINAL PARTING THOUGHT: Please share or forward this post at your discretion. If everyone shares this post and two of your friends share this post and so on, we use the power of exponential math to work in our favor, which seems appropriate given the virus is using that same exponential math against us.

HOW YOU CAN REALLY HELP: If you know people who have large numbers of followers, or people in the media, please leverage your personal relationship with them and ask them to amplify this post by sharing it.

For people not on Facebook you can email or text the link. If you know people in government this fact-based post may help inform them to make the best decisions.

It's time for us humans to go on the offensive against the virus. We must fight back.

There is only one way to do so: Social Distancing.

Do it today.

NOTE: Anyone, including the media, is free to use this post, any related content, in all or in part, for any purpose, in any format, with no attribution required. Please direct message me if you have other ideas for how to raise awareness.

There are plenty of other experts who vehemently disagree with him, but he's certainly qualified as an expert, and his opinion is still rational and well expressed, as opposed to the "OMG THIS IS THE FLU WASH YOUR HANDS THE ILLUMINATI CREATED THIS AS A DISTRACTION" tin foil hat crowd. Those are the willfully ignorant.

Ain’t nobody got time for dat!

It's coming. It's coming because we waited too long and didn't take it seriously.

Forgot, attention span is limited to 280 characters.

My deepest apologies if I overtaxed anyone.

Get back to me in 15 days.

Actually, at the moment, there are plenty of people who got time for dat.

Summit just lowered their graduated discount points I suspect because of a downturn of sales caused by COVID?

Well, my tin foil hat still fits with my face mask on.

Keep us updated on your condition please. Wish you and your family the best.

100%. Best to you both, and GJ, best to you that you avoid this completely.

So I went to my doctor today to pick up my letter for my employer and everyone in the office was wearing a mask. Hmm. Coincidence? I don't think so.

I would have demanded the doctor Fax or Email that letter. My doctor wants me to come in and talk about my health issues. I said heII no.

I asked for him to renew my Staten prescription. That is what triggered the "I must see you first and talk"

Thank you for the well wishes. Over all, in the 48+ hours from the onsit we are doing much better. Not over it but 40-50% better. Lots of herbal teas, fresh soups and vegies. Humidifier running hard. Nasal and chest decongestants. Melatonin for sleep. Lavender and Eucalyptus scents for peace of mind.

"Kumbaya my lord, kumbaya" Come on everone, sing it....

My nephew that works at Becton Dickinson just texted me that their 2 hour COVID-19 test is out now that will run on existing BD Flu test machines, and their 20 minute test that runs on hand held machines will be out soon.

I asked them to email it but their internet wasn't working, said they have been in touch with their provider about it but still not working. There was only one person in the waiting room and I wore gloves.

OK, you've been told time and again to wash your hands. But do you really know the down and dirty of why? What happens when you sing "Happy Birthday" twice while scrubbing?

If you can spend 6 minuets, PLEASE watch this Y-Tube Vid. Share it to friends. These 6 minuets may save someones life.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fRqJaZO5yW8

that life may be your own!
Our son in law was an airforce medic and says most hand washing instruction fails to show correct washing of the heel of the hand. This vid quickly shows it. Make sure to wash from the "Karate Chop" area and up to at least the "knob" of the wrist. Almost everyone fails to wash that portion of hands/forearms.

It’s starting to hit close to home for me. My mom called yesterday and told me a patient in another wing of the assisted living place she lives in just got diagnosed.
And this morning a coworker whose cubicle is about 8’ feet from mine stood up shortly after I got in, and said he had to leave because his fiancé just called and said someone she works with just got diagnosed, so he left to self quarantine.
Meantime they are letting everyone work from home but I’m trapped because I’m one of the few who hadn’t been upgraded to a laptop yet. Ironically a coworkers last day was a week ago Friday and his laptop is still there. However, the bureaucracy of the IT department means you can’t just assign it to someone else. They are supposed to pick it up and then assign to another employee.
I’ll pretty much have the place to myself tomorrow so that is social distancing I guess....

In the "6 Degrees of Separation" rules that within 6 degrees you know someone that I know....

This Virus will hit someone you know. It may be tomorrow or 6 weeks down the road.

But if we can make the care-free ("I dont give a shiet" or "Its a Hoax") folks understand that it may not be them that get hit but someone dear to them because of their uncaring practices then half this battle is won.
Really, if you isolate your self to a mountain top and never go shopping or visiting you most likely will never get this virus.

My mom was recovering at home from Non-Hopkins Lymphoma treatments. She was doing fine until my stupid homeless drugie younger sister went in to visit her. My mom got SAR's and pneumonia killed her. But my sister is fine and does not care that she was most likely the cause.

https://www.sciencealert.com/who-recommends-to-avoid-taking-ibuprofen-for-covid-19-symptoms

Best to avoid NSAID drugs or any drug that has the side effect that it increases ACE2 receptors on human cells.

In my reading I am getting conflicting reports as to whether
Tamiflu ( generic Oseltamivir )
is also helpful for this different virus family of Wuhan coronavirus/COVID-19 or not.

Same for the newer Japanese invented, one dose pill Xofluza

https://www.scientificamerican.com/...flu-drug-that-is-taken-in-a-single-dose/

The Chinese seem to believe that at least some of the herbs of “traditional chinese medicine” are helpful, but I have not seen specific named herbs.

https://www.sciencenews.org/article/coronavirus-covid19-repurposed-treatments-drugs

https://www.standard.co.uk/news/hea...-aged-100-recovers-disease-a4383741.html

Since the Corona viruses are basically common cold type viruses I wonder if some people may have an increased resistance to it. Some people don't get colds, I am one of them.

I reside in a rural small 1 traffic light town. I don't share many views but a lot of the values of the locals. I have become good friends with a similar age new owner of a after 8? years a very successful family owned pizza restaurant. I might be their best customer over the years. I spend a lot of time off hours chatting with the owner. He has over 25 employees, and they are for the most a younger group, but hard workers, and seem to be of good stock. The owner and I have nearly opposite views, but we also have similar values, listen to and respect each other, and socialize outside the restaurant. I also have been a business owner my entire life and understand the ups and downs of running your own business.

I decided since 3/1? I would limit my exposure to others as best I could during this COVID event. I have not been to his restaurant since, but talk on the phone. The restaurant has been steadily setting new sales records since opening, even as two weekends ago. I suspect in this small town, and the business they do, within 48 hrs everyone in town has only one degree of separation from someone who has eaten at the Pizza parlor. His client base has a heavy snow bird group to all the way to grade school baseball teams. He really is hands on and does a great job.

5? Days ago on the phone I asked him (suggestively) if he had considered going to take out/delivery only. He said had thought about it.

Yesterday around 4:30pm I again spoke to him and used all my best efforts to convince him to consider that he should be in front of this instead of waiting for the gov to direct, which yesterday Florida directed restaurants to limit to 50% capacity, which I commented means, they really just lack the political gonads to do the right thing. One point I shared was, he did not want to be Ms O Leary's cow in our small town, with effectively no real heath care within 30? miles.

Ironically, he is in the highest risk group of the entire staff.

I'm crossing my fingers today he will see light.

You gotta see this. MIT molecular and systems biologist really lays it out. Don’t miss. Spread it far and wide.
https://techstartups.com/2020/03/14/real-truth-coronavirus-according-mit-molecular-biologist/


Yes, to say this is overblown is the understatement of the century. Every winter 20,000 to 69,000 Americans die from the flu which almost always comes from China and we never heard a word of panic from the news media. Remember the term Super-Bug? Those were for the year the flu virus was especially virulent! We are watching the economy of the United States being destroyed day by day for a super-bug that in a months time killed maybe 100 Americans when over 18,000 have died from the common flu.

you spied a cluster of morons
as a mask doesn't do squat to stop spreading it
unless you already have it..

A load of BS. FP.

what? the mask or the fraud pandemic??

Speaking of morons then, only a moron thinks a "95" mask with a valve, prevents the spreading of COVOID to any degree if the wearer is infected.

My mom emailed me yesterday that they were informed that there is a second COVID-19 case at her assisted living home. She forwarded a letter last night from the CEO of the place informing the residents of the news and also expressing frustration that the state agencies did not show any interest in testing staff and the other residents because it didn't meet some criteria or something.
It's been on the news for days that a nursing home in the southwest suburbs here had a case over the weekend, and now is up to a couple dozen residents and staff members testing positive. I find it very odd they don't consider an outbreak of this starting in a senior living community to be of major concern. Nothing even in the media yet about her facility, and the first case was reported to them Monday.

Do you have a good supply on hand? The tone of your posts suggests you may be at high risk of exposure and should you contract the virus it would be wise to limit the others around you may expose/infect.
Everyone should strive to protect themselves by limiting exposure and respect others by not being a carrier.

You need to get ready to understand the nursing homes are the new cruise ships, unfortunately.

And I am not buying the line the grocery stores need to reduce hours to "restock", they don't have the stock to begin with.

Case in point as to a contributing factor:

https://transportationnation.com/fm...open-24-hours-per-day-to-serve-truckers/

not worried about a cold that most likely I already had...
so much, i'm going out and supporting a local restaurant tonight
before the curfew Nazi's come to shut it down..

Make sure you give all your relatives your dogie bag and a big kiss when you get home on behalf all of us here, they might appreciate it in 8 days.


Posts like this remind me of the Mom's against Drunk Driving Nazi's, where the drunk always seems to survive and the innocents perish.

please stay home in your bubble and live in fear from the boogieman
your mental health obviously needs it
not me!

can anyone here tell me the origin of the Coronavirus???

Just when you thought he disappeared . He`s back again. Kinda like a virus. LOL

I try not to judge other's mental health.

But those that do and base their opposing decisions on blatant bravado, does little to waver my deliberate position.

Which one...

Wuhan Flu would be the correct term for the current strand the PC MSM wants to call Covid-19...

Might be best rather then just deflecting away from other worthless previous deflections, you state clearly first what real merit and potential discovery for our collective enlightenment that is to be sought by discussing this tangential thought.

Might be best to drop the whole topic, as it matters little to those sick.

this particular strain did not originate there..

.

if I was sick I would be more concerned about the regular flu!
that kills 60,000 a year
this has killed a hundred people when it is told it is 10xs more deadly
wake me up when we have a half a million dead
the bodies should be stacking up already... thousands at least
the numbers say this is vastly over hyped
i'm a numbers kind of guy..
the numbers support my statements
your fears are supported by what???

and the ironic thing is
you don't even know what you are so scared of comes from??

I don't know what you want...

I tried to reach out to eight doctors in China who originally reported on this but they're mysteriously are not available for comment...

Something about a lab in Canada and then poof...gone...

Fly and jcc...Take your fight elsewhere...Some of us are interested in this thread and your fighting and bickering does not belong here.

it actually started in the Neatherlands then went to Canada
you would figure these fear mongering experts here would know this
oh that's right they get all their information from the reliable MSM lmao

https://gizadeathstar.com/2020/01/questions-emerge-about-coronavirus/

I will leave him alone
he isn't very educated on the subject, I just tried to help..

Hi flyP. ... wasssupy ? ....

And watch out for that from MERRYland !

But fP does have a good point about the fatalities so far....

Be careful comparing beginning numbers to ending numbers. The next few weeks will tell the story.

Why are people worried?

Worst case, 2/3rds are infected, call it 200 million. 3.4% die (china initial rate) -> 6.8 million dead

good case? 100 million infected, death rate of 0.6% (from south korea) -> 600,000 dead

An absolute best case would be matching the yearly flu totals.

Who is taking vitamin C ... or maybe even an extra dose ?

Good for the immune system

Seems some want to ignore Italy's current problem of where to put the dead until they can do cremations. Yes the bodies are stacking up. This in its self is going to add another huge outbreak.

But then again, some members just like to be trolls and post nothing good in posts, just endless worthless banter.

QED

I never understand how in these here parts, anyone is allowed to throw out stupid unsuported crap and personal insults, and then there is a reasoned response ( that allowed?), and is called bickering and fighting?

If one doesn't want reasoned responses, which might be a from a different viewpoint, stop posting stupid crap and insults in the first place.


And BTW, my Pizza parlor friend called me 15 mins ago, he today has closed the seating area 100% and is now just take out and PU, cut the staff weekly hours to 30 hrs, and everyone seems to be OK with that.

He will never know how many lives he might have saved, and will never have to answer to his maker why he didn't at least try.

jcc...I did not post stupid crap..And just an fyi...all of our bars and restaurants are closed in our small town

&

My beef is when "unsupported". If one can support their POV, everyone reading can make their own decision, when not supported, its just bait and it's intent often is suspect IMO.

While you are entitled to your opinion and are free to post whatever you want, this is the kind of "information" that will only keep the virus going longer. The "mainstream media" is not the problem here. I mean seriously, a bio warfare lab? I can't believe I wasted the time it took me to read that article to that point. And regardless of where the stupid virus came from, it's here now and we have to deal with it.

Everyone needs to understand that this is in fact a dire public health crisis that is directly affecting everyone in this country on some level. Frankly there is no time for games or trying to prove that its not as bad as it actually is. Thinly-veiled politicized information and/or "alternative facts" have no value in the fight to stop its spread.

Again, regardless of your political affiliation, religious beliefs, beer preference, etc, the ONLY places that you should rely on for DEFINITIVE information about COVID-19 are the CDC and WHO. That's it. Not the Giza Death Star blog.

Carry on.

At about 72 hours from my wife and my on set Sunday morning, I am still suffering but about 50% better....My lung capacity is really my limiting factor. Left lung is still congested bad.
Wife is at hospital right now. They did not want me to go with her. Her temperature has swung the other way. She went from running low 100ish to now running 94.2F which means her system is not controlling her body temp.

They will not test anyone unless your temp is above 101F. Ours has stayed below that.
We do not get common colds and we do get the flu shots every year. We both has slight Hay Fever issues but usually in the Fall when the Cottonwoods and Scotchblum bushs blume.

Went out in the garage and found my box of N95 dust masks. These are the non vented ones that you need to stop the exhale breath from bypassing. Some N95 masks have a 1 way valve that lets you exhale easier, filtered air in but unfiltered out. I also found a box of 50 cheap dust masks, without the metal nose bar.

So, YES this Covid-19 cold virus does have me worried. It should have you worried too. It is kind of a mutated version of that SAR's virus that killed my mother in 2003. She was just 73 years old, I am 64 years old.
Those that are making light or jokes about protecting yourself or others, I hope it does not hit you or someone important to you. Take your jokes over to FaceBook for all the other trolls to have fun with.

Picture of my mom at 71 years old on tour in Germany. She died 8 months later.

Yeah ? Where is that ?
Why do people hide their location ?

Last I looked, in Auburn WA there were 2,000 David J's so its a bit hard to find me. We are not published in the locak phone directroy. The Property tax records are a bit hard to search by name. The only member that knew where I live is 340Shorty but I was told he has passed on so he can not tell anyone.

Ford GM Chrysler and Nissan is halting production until at least March 30

Another 475 dead overnight in Italy is that enough to convince people that this is a big deal?

Convinces me government run healthcare is a killer.

Ahh, yes. If a medic on a battlefield with limited resources has to do triage to save the soldiers he can, instead, they all could have been be saved by changing who pays the medic's wages. Got it.


Or, it's what happens when the system buckles under the weight of something no one could have planned for, because the public didn't take the threat seriously enough and isolate soon enough.

We'll be there soon enough ourselves.

The Wuhan coronovirus that causes COVID-19 has been determined to be of natural origin, and not man-made in a lab.

https://medicalxpress.com/news/2020-03-covid-coronavirus-epidemic-natural-scientists.html

Sample quote

Evidence for natural evolution

The scientists found that the RBD portion of the SARS-CoV-2 spike proteins had evolved to effectively target a molecular feature on the outside of human cells called ACE2, a receptor involved in regulating blood pressure. The SARS-CoV-2 spike protein was so effective at binding the human cells, in fact, that the scientists concluded it was the result of natural selection and not the product of genetic engineering.

This evidence for natural evolution was supported by data on SARS-CoV-2's backbone—its overall molecular structure. If someone were seeking to engineer a new coronavirus as a pathogen, they would have constructed it from the backbone of a virus known to cause illness. But the scientists found that the SARS-CoV-2 backbone differed substantially from those of already known coronaviruses and mostly resembled related viruses found in bats and pangolins.

"These two features of the virus, the mutations in the RBD portion of the spike protein and its distinct backbone, rules out laboratory manipulation as a potential origin for SARS-CoV-2" said Andersen.

Josie Golding, Ph.D., epidemics lead at UK-based Wellcome Trust, said the findings by Andersen and his colleagues are "crucially important to bring an evidence-based view to the rumors that have been circulating about the origins of the virus (SARS-CoV-2) causing COVID-19."

"They conclude that the virus is the product of natural evolution," Goulding adds, "ending any speculation about deliberate genetic engineering."

Possible origins of the virus

Based on their genomic sequencing analysis, Andersen and his collaborators concluded that the most likely origins for SARS-CoV-2 followed one of two possible scenarios.

In one scenario, the virus evolved to its current pathogenic state through natural selection in a non-human host and then jumped to humans. This is how previous coronavirus outbreaks have emerged, with humans contracting the virus after direct exposure to civets (SARS) and camels (MERS). The researchers proposed bats as the most likely reservoir for SARS-CoV-2 as it is very similar to a bat coronavirus. There are no documented cases of direct bat-human transmission, however, suggesting that an intermediate host was likely involved between bats and humans.

In this scenario, both of the distinctive features of SARS-CoV-2's spike protein—the RBD portion that binds to cells and the cleavage site that opens the virus up—would have evolved to their current state prior to entering humans. In this case, the current epidemic would probably have emerged rapidly as soon as humans were infected, as the virus would have already evolved the features that make it pathogenic and able to spread between people.

In the other proposed scenario, a non-pathogenic version of the virus jumped from an animal host into humans and then evolved to its current pathogenic state within the human population. For instance, some coronaviruses from pangolins, armadillo-like mammals found in Asia and Africa, have an RBD structure very similar to that of SARS-CoV-2. A coronavirus from a pangolin could possibly have been transmitted to a human, either directly or through an intermediary host such as civets or ferrets.

Then the other distinct spike protein characteristic of SARS-CoV-2, the cleavage site, could have evolved within a human host, possibly via limited undetected circulation in the human population prior to the beginning of the epidemic. The researchers found that the SARS-CoV-2 cleavage site, appears similar to the cleavage sites of strains of bird flu that has been shown to transmit easily between people. SARS-CoV-2 could have evolved such a virulent cleavage site in human cells and soon kicked off the current epidemic, as the coronavirus would possibly have become far more capable of spreading between people.

End quote

US Army Corps of Engineers to be called to supplement hospitals in worst hit areas:

https://www.military.com/daily-news...ild-tent-hospitals-white-house-says.html

https://thehill.com/policy/defense/...respirator-masks-2000-ventilators-to-hhs

Well I see the leader of the tinfoil hat army has showed up. Did you know that the entire state of NJ is basically a dumping ground for C8? You boys can fight it out among yourselves, I'm heading for the mountains. Hopefully I'll see you all on the other side of this.

It is the same crap that was being put out there back then. Why does Moparts put up with it??

Nice strawman. Apparently you do not get it.

No one mentioned who paid the wages, it's who runs it and if you think government run healthcare is a solution I give you the VA to consider.

The people who pay the wages, in either scenario, are you and me. At least with the current setup if I don't like the care I can pay someone else to provide it.

Sorry, you don't understand the proposed systems. No one is pushing for a VA-style system (where .gov pays for procedures, and runs the day-to-day operations of hospitals). Just changing from health insurance companies paying for procedures, to Medicare paying for them.

Regardless, we'll probably have the same problem with our system over the next several weeks.

Might be the same basic reason I don't need to explain.

Deal with it..

Sorry.

My immune suppressed 40 year old son in law on the east coast of Florida has the symptoms, and got the test Monday. They say 3-5 days before results, which they will contact him if positive, and he can find on his own if negative online I am told.

Because of his long term medical condition, I had elected to stay away until this virus runs it course. He has been working from home, not sure if positive what might have been his exposure vector. He reports its a very uncomfortable test FWIW.

John Hopkins maintains a site that tracks worldwide statistics on the outbreak. Anyone viewing it can clearly see the ill and casualties are piling up. As test results come in will the derelicts finally heed this is real and finally heed directives to be smart?
I'm not a lemming, nor descendant of lemmings. I do have compassion and a desire to see more birthdays and see the world whole and complete again.
A few questions:
Why is Russia not reporting cases?
Where did 30% of stock market value go?
Will the young see our country debt free?

1. Why would you trust any answer they gave anyway?
2. It was paper money in the first place, easy come, easy go
3. No

Something I heard about the apparent spike in Italy compared to other countries that I haven't had time to fact check one way or the other is that their population has the highest concentration of seniors of all the reporting countries.

If that is true it might explain why the death toll appears higher there as seniors and the health issues that go with them put them at the top of the risk heap.

Kevin

Stop and think about this is a conspiracy created by toilet paper manufacturers.

They are also a much closer society than most other countries, nothing near "social distancing". And families tend to live together more often multigenerationally, so you'll have teenagers and young adults often living together with parents and grandparents instead of rushing away to college or living with room mates when they get into their late teens and 20s.
I'm sure that has contributed to their higher incidence and death rate.

Thanks, I needed that

and another big factor for the 80+ deaths being higher is.
there was a limited number of hospital beds and proper equipment, more sick than beds available. so the doctors chose to treat the younger patients with the available ventilators, and the elderly got the nothing. because of this the elderly had a higher death rate than it should have been.

https://www.snopes.com/fact-check/italy-elderly-coronavirus/

And thus: The younger less cautious, less apt to abide by social distancing get the beds, equipment and attention needed to survive.

p.s. see my post above with the tally of the sick in nevada.

Your writing is sometimes cryptic. I'm not sure what the sentence above means.
Are the people that leave their location a "mystery" trying to hide or are they trying to be clever by using euphemisms ?
This is just a curious thing for me, not a KGB inquiry.

It is cryptic often by choice, good observation.

Let me partially decode this particular subject,

I chose not to explain/answer the previous questions further, nor explain why.

I heard on the newstoday regarding Italy, per capita they have a larger quantity of beds and equipment then the US.

I have no way to confirm.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_hospital_beds

Then I saw a comment that we have more ICU beds per capita, but I can't confirm that easily.

Edit: https://www.forbes.com/sites/niallm...eds-per-capita-infographic/#5a74da097f86

So, I came home to this today. Every now and then the ex gets a good idea (I think its good anyway....)

Linky >>> End the toilet paper blues

Would one be remiss to think that in this country of very expensive healthcare cost there is little reinvestment in infrastructure and inventory of supplies?

The benefits of having more beds per capita then ICU beds is likely beyond our expertise/understanding, in that I suspect most patients are not admitted straight to ICU, although they will if treatment in a regular bed is not longer adequate, and if there is not a regular bed available for a covid patient, I suspect they might deteriorate health wise pretty quick to then needing the ICU bed.

I don't see a clear "winner" here on per capita bed counts between Italy/US.

It's the shortage of respirators that's the big problem.

Yes they are a major part, but there must be trained healthy operators, and I suspect they need to be operated in a room fitted out for their use that includes O2 gas supplies, filtered/isolated power, maybe some network connection, etc, in that its just not the machine, its an dedicated entire system, not sure if every regular room has all the needed support, but this is all above my pay grade.

In any profit-driven industry, spending capital (money) on capacity you're not likely to ever use can be considered a waste of money.

Why build a factory capable of cranking out millions of widgets a year, if you're only ever going to sell 50k a year?

Why take the time (read: money) to move product from the truck to a mini-warehouse (more money) connected to your store, when you can just go direct from the truck to the shelves? This is fine until a demand or supply shock happens, then the shelves are bare, creating a panic, causing them to continue to be bare, even if the normal about of products are still arriving daily.

The wiki link says we have 2.7 beds per capita, but a pretty low utilization rate. Why spend the money to handle a once every 100 year pandemic? And like mentioned above, we also need all the support and people to work the beds too.

All answers above my pay grade too

Okay, thank you for responding anyway.

A report I heard this morning is the proposed stationng of hospital ships on opposite coasts will be used for ordinary (non cv19) hospitalizations while existing, cobbled, and temporary hospitals will be used for the welling population of young(ish) cv19 ill. Didn't hear where the +55 (retired + ss/medicaid?) will be sequestered.
I've always felt that any operation/business (I managed airports and other public facilities) should not spend all their profits on bonuses and dividends. Seems in the old days we saved up and worked extra jobs to get through winter, now industries (many non essential) immediately stick their hand out the moment a downturn materializes. I'm particularly surprised of the immediate wails for relief made by the cruise (foreign licensed ships and foreign employs) and resort industry.

Indeed. Look at the airline industry right now. Spent their profits and tax breaks on stock buy backs (raises their stock value), and now want 50 billion-ish to survive. And people wonder why young people have a bad view of the way things work.

I'm not saying investors don't deserve a return on their money, but they should have a bit of risk too. Socialism/bailouts for the rich, and rugged individualism for the poor, is starting to annoy a whole lot of people.

------------------

Italian messages to their 10 day younger selves https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=o_cImRzKXOs

https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/2020/world/iran-coronavirus-outbreak-graves/

I look at this current situation and cannot feel that it is almost like a forced roll-back of the last century. Communities now have to look within for the very basic needs to get by. Will the family unit be strengthened as it's forced to be together, will family proximity return to favor and co-op ing community resources become vogue.
Way to early to tell. Should some miracle vaccination appear (doubtful) all this is fantasy. The reality is the light at the end of the tunnel is the freight train of the fallout of this pandemic. It's real and it's building up steam. I think it is time to plant a small garden, build community networks that can carefully support each other. Trust and honesty is paramount. Too many have embraced the fujigm (f--- you jack I got mine) attitude and disrespect other humans in their proximity. This to the point of detriment of their and others life and the ability of nations to pick up the shambles that is appearing before us.
Again, it's real, it's sad and time will wear on and we may or may not be here to live it. Not a rant, just a guys feelings.

Unfortunately for us, the planet Earth does need a major Pandemic to wipe this parasite called Human off its face. In 5 million years Earth will still go around the sun, with or without us being alive.

A non-viral illness has infected this thread.

i read something similar.
by me the hospitals are nearly filled to capacity already and the illness spread is not at peak levels yet, and won't be for a while.

According to one non peer reviewed paper by Chinese researchers,
people with Type A blood
might be slightly more likely to suffer from COVID-19.

https://www.sciencealert.com/paper-...be-slightly-more-susceptible-to-covid-19

Not just dry cough and later fever,
early symptoms of COVID-19 are not wanting to eat and the runs.

Sample quote

Nearly half of COVID-19 patients enrolled in the study conducted in the Hubei province of China presented digestive symptoms,
such as diarrhea and anorexia, and cited it as their chief complaint.
The study also reveals that patients with digestive symptoms had a longer gap between the onset of symptoms and hospital admission than patients presenting only respiratory symptoms and were less likely to be cured and discharged than those without digestive symptoms.
End quote

From

https://medicalxpress.com/news/2020-03-digestive-symptoms-prominent-covid-patients.html

Chinese medical researchers revise death rate down to
1.4%
after more detailed analysis
but finds that those over age 59 are 5.1 times more likely to die than those under 59.

https://medicalxpress.com/news/2020-03-covid-mortality-outbreak-epicentre.html

Sample quote

The authors concluded that the risk of contracting a moderate to severe infection increased roughly four percent per year among adults aged 30-60 years.

End quote

https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1240432285184405505.html

Lots of science, then this conclusion:

well so much for my planning on staying home for months, the person I talk about from time to time that I take care of had a cardiac event and it took cpr to get this person back yesterday afternoon.

So off I went on the 30 mile drive to the er of a town of 3k. There is no point in calling the meat wagon here, its 45minutes then the long run to the hospital.

I was not allowed in the ER, sucked, but do to this person prior issues, they chemically delt with the svt issue and watched for an hour and we all agreed home was best. I have a defib unit here so other then the svt issue and blood work things can be done here.

Now how much did I put this person at risk and myself? I tried the sneaky ice water in the face deal that has worked a few times but for me to use the defib unit at home is a very very last resort.

She is in here mid sixties, 2 heart attacks, 2 strokes, 7 svt-s, 2 took a defib, 2 after heart ablation?. I hope we skated through.

Wow. So sorry to hear all of that. What an awful situation.

Thanks Charger, it will be ok.

I dont know how the pros do it, but when ya got a person on the floor with that blank dead stare like the dead cats along the road its 80% panic/ 20% dealing with the situation.

I know from the Army its easy to disconnect from everything but when its someone you love dearly if flipping blows.

But shes not in a nursing home and never will be.

The one time I had to shock her at home she hit 30/0 and was awake when I hit her at the lowest setting, she let out a groan like a horse giving birth saying please not again but with seconds was normal rhythm.

BREAKING NEWS— President Trump announced on Thursday the US will IMMEDIATELY make the drug Chloroquine available to treat US coronavirus patients!


On Monday Dr. Anthony Fauci, director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, announced that the first trial vaccine for the coronavirus is now being tested. The trial taking place in Seattle, which has been a hotbed for COVID-19. The test includes 45 people age 18-55 and they are receiving two injections, one at zero days, one at 28 days. The individuals will then be followed for one year. The trial results is still months away.

On Monday night Laura Ingraham reported that a new study revealed the anti-viral medication chloroquine is successful in fighting the coronavirus.

** An Effective Treatment for Coronavirus (COVID-19)

Laura invited Dr. Gregory Rigano, the co-author of the study to discuss the latest findings.

Dr. Rigano said their study found that those COVID-19 patients who took hydroxy-chloroquine were found free of the disease in 6 days. The patients were testing negative for the coronavirus in six days!

Dr. Rigano also said taking choroquine could act as a preventative.

That announcement has already been contradicted by the FDA.

Under these circumstances, I would be more reassured hearing this and detailed info from a real MD, rather then the door greeter, especially one less contentious.

My above comment refers to the initial comment I replied to regarding the live TV news conference I also watched that began at approx 11:30am today, announced by a person who multiple times stumbled with the correct pronunciation of the drugs name, among other things.

Link?

Right from a hospital MD & department head - Syracuse, NY - a friend of mine:

I did see that.
They are trialing here too

https://www.nih.gov/news-events/news-releases/nih-clinical-trial-remdesivir-treat-covid-19-begins
Sent from my iPhone


On Mar 17, 2020, at 2:08 PM, Eric wrote:



Jim, just in case this one didn’t make it to you: https://www.nzherald.co.nz/world/news/article.cfm?c_id=2&objectid=12317268

We need to double your pay rate.

The "immediately available" part is what was contradicted. It has been tested, and has now been approved for clinical trials.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=F8aueQXQ2H4

THe fast tracking of clinical trial is fantastic, and very promising. Here's hoping it works.

I see, they really do care about us, but the states need to get their own supplies. I feel better now.
A year from now the albino survivors emerge in hopes the clinical trial is successful in bringing this drug to do just what?
Sorry for the sour reception, I liken this to adding Barr's Leaks to a vehicle with warped heads.
I am glad there are researchers working on this, yet "holds promise" should not replace dedicated research.
A vaccine is not a treatment, but may prevent this, and similar virus in the future.
For now distance, clean practices and laying low is all we can and should be doing.
future albino

What is an the albino survivor?

my description of scared untanned survivors emerging from chattels as the effects of the virus wind down

See my previous post where I tried to buy thirty 250mg tablets of hydroxy-chloroquine.

https://board.moparts.org/ubbthread...lder-men-smokers-harder.html#Post2747719

Instead of costing $1.20 for 30 tablets like it does overseas,
I was quoted $501 and told no delivery date could be promised.

hydroxy-chloroquine Is synthetic quinine.

Originally “natural quinine” was gotten from the sap of a South American tree.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Quinine#History

Natural quinine was in “Tonic Water” which was part of well known bar drink “Gin and Tonic”.

In Dec 2006 the do-gooders banned natural Quinine from being put in Tonic Water, mandating that an artificial flavor be used instead. Hundreds of tree farmers in South America and elsewhere lost their jobs.

https://www.medscape.com/viewarticle/771699

At that time it was not understood that quinine is also an anti-viral against some viruses.
Malaria is not caused by a virus, but a protozoa, which is a tiny animal.

So now that there is an urgent and widespread need for quinine (or synthetic hydroxy-chloroquine)
aren’t glad that you can’t just buy “real tonic water” at the grocery store?

Which post..You must have over 50 post's on corona virus...

But if you look at tonic water, it lists as an ingredient quinine, not quinine flavoring. What up wid dat?

Greatly reduced qty of quinine, only enough to add a little flavor with no benefit. Tanqueray and tonic does not taste as it should mixed with the stuff.

nypost.com/2020/03/19/old-malaria-d...hromycin-may-help-cure-coronavirus-study

Two drug cocktail was 100 % successful after six day test. Single drug, 50 to 70 %.

I bet there is a run on regular old quinine water right now!

LOL.

It's not yet available, and according to the doc, it won't be for a while. It sure sounds like they are clearing as many hurdles as fast as they can, which is great, but you can't speed up the actual trial.

So maybe 10 days ago on one of the "pre Official Covid" threads, I shared my grocery store idea about opening alternate check out lanes.

This afternoon I visited the same store, and the check out lanes were once again all bunched together.

There happened to be a different store manager nearby helping a customer.

I spoke to him when he was finished and shared with him my suggestion.

He replied:

"that's a good idea"

"I never thought of that "

When asked is there any reason why not to?

"I can't think of one"

He ended with:

"I'll send an email up to corporate"

The light went yellow..

hasn't Berry already chimed in a told that its a fake virus , but he's not telling anybody whats fake about it ,because it will just help them make a better fake virus??

Doc as a non drinker id always thought they were nearly the same.

A local Vodka maker has decided to stop making it and is now making 85% alcohol hand sanitizer and is giving it to our local hospitals and care centers for free. He is mixing his raw vodka 99.8% alcohol with glycerin and Lavender oil. To sell it to the public he would need to De-nature it with .01% methanol.

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=b96uqlQM8F4

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/us/c...statewide-stay-at-home-order/ar-BB11qYLm

pOtO ..... sorry to report that some people ACTUALLY DRINK that stuff ... GOOGLE IT !

A bud of mine wife’s bestie does just that .... cute as hell ... a gear head chick but is a FLAMING ALCOHOLIC!

What a waste ...

Not many total deaths yet, but it's trending upwards. After seeing the pictures from spring break in a few places, it'll continue to go up

https://coronavirus.1point3acres.com/en

R u referring to the tugOwar group on Clearwater Beach today ? :

Maybe 150 strong !!

Since Africa uses the antimalarial drug chloroquine I would say it works pretty good.

Again not sure if this reply belongs here or stock bailing thread.

Looks like all of us under $99K income per tax filer might be getting a couple of Gov 4 figure hand out checks soon.

My first line of thought, I'd call Summit and add a few more items to my on the self future projects list.

Although my cash flow in this downturn is approaching 6 figures, I'm not in dire straights like a lot of others are or will be.

I am not boasting one bit, I'm just very grateful.

My close relatives are for the time being in better/more stable financial shape then I am.

I see little upside in just returning the checks, to be squandered on some thing else likely stupid or wasteful.

So my question is, how how can I trickle down directly the money (donate) to do the most good, for those most in need?

Any serious ideas?

The modern day version of a "Hurricane Party" in Panama City
Unconfirmed: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_Camille#Hurricane_Party

"Authorities admit wherever there are people congregating, there will be risks of spreading the virus, but others say they do not want to jump the gun on a decision just yet."

My guess, if they draw out the decision long enough, spring break will be over and they look like they took the high road, and then can count their money.

IMO its embarrassing the rest of Florida took so long to see the light and close the beaches, but then its Florida.

https://www.mypanhandle.com/community/panama-city-beach-will-not-be-closing-its-beaches/

Make it simple, give it to your pizza guy you speak so highly of????

He will be fine.

I was considering funding limited free pizzas for those in need. Just hard to figure who is really needy vs just opportunistic

He is a stand up enough of guy and he would handle it well.

There is a local homeless guy, seems almost by choice, I thought about helping him.

Spoke with him last week, he recently applied for SS, and in his words, he has more money in the bank then he can spend. Lives in a tent.

If you have small local businesses in your area that you like I would use it to support their establishments, they are all suffering through this. If you get a pizza or food delivery, tip well. If you have a locally owned gas station buy there, same with independent local auto parts etc.

Edit- Too harsh of a reply.

Just make it simple on yourself and receiver.

All volunteer fire departments in my area and they are taking a big hit financially. They relie on Friday night fish, shrimp, and chicken sales during Lent. They were forced to cancel. My son does fork truck repair on the road for local (100 mile app radius) business and he was called at 10 pm last night and laid off. all non essential work places shut dow in Pa.

the news last might said auto parts stores, hardware stores, and auto repair facilities were on the list approved to be open. [along with the others]

Oh crap!!
https://kwwl.com/2020/03/20/with-to...f-bathroom-products-in-a-stolen-trailer/

I believe I would re-inject it into the local economy. THink about the locally owned mom and pop stores, especially the ones where you see the owner behind the counter. Doing so will help them get through these tough times.
I am thinking of hiring independent licensed contractors to help with some small projects I have on the board (outside the house only).
I have not thought much about the "tax relief". Last time I stuck it in the bank because it was not free money, rather a defer of tax paid during the year and either deducted from your refund or included in your check back to the tax man the following April.
With that in view, don't look at anything as a windfall or gift, spend it where you would ordinarily spend, or if sympathetic to community members support a business as above.
Another way to help is check with locally based charities and find one you are comfortable with. One I've been thinking of is hospice. Cancer has no bounds and the workers that help families through dark times need protection. Many volunteer thrift stores fund hospice activities and should their doors be shuttered, they need $ to help.

I support the locals already as best as I can. I'm still new to area and the fact they tolerate an outsider is much appreciated.

I like the hospice idea, I'll check into that.

We have a local restaurant where some of the car guys go every Saturday morning for breakfast...

A few of us are going to purchase gift cards from there for future meals at a later time to help carry them through this slow time...

The whole "sky is falling" thought process that has consumed the media is a f/n shame...

For the most part on the other side of this nothing will have changed...maybe some businesses don't make it through but the majority of them will...

People are still planning their futures...Guys will still buy car parts...With any luck lighting will strike the heads of the few idiots wearing tin foil...

In the end all will be good...

The pessimist's need an attitude adjustment...

cv19 will take care of those without tinfoil, those heeding some basic, commonsense precautions will be the 30%-60% that get through this without infection and likely diminished breathing capacity.

Guys will still buy car parts.

I have gotten more offers in the last three days of my ebay watched items of people trying to sell anything, also ive marked some things that sold easily two months ago to 1/4 the price and have sold zero.

So for the ebay part I cant agree with.

I hear Summit Racing is still open.

Not sure about today but 4 days ago I ordered $480 in parts from Summit. They all got here yesterday late afternoon. Still in garage unopened. Will set there for another 4 days or so.

So with the "lock downs" in NY and Ca, not sure how I see this being real effective, if anybody from another state can just waltz in. Seems like it would be more effective and shorter if nationwide. Seems like those who feel they are outside the circle of risk (tin foil hat denial?), will only prolong this crisis with their thinking.

This should not be a 48? state decision, and if so, it's rather divisive, and risky.

Being a leader sometimes requires tough, unpopular, deliberate decisions from the top.

Many predictions from day one have been spot on, we all know which ones.

Ordered rear rotors & pads for my wife's buggy from Rock Auto on Monday, rotors arrived Wed. & pads yesterday.

This team is cross checking whether any of the
20,000 drugs already approved as safe for humans
can block proteins essential to the wuhan coronavirus that causes COVID-19:

https://medicalxpress.com/news/2020-03-drugs-covid-19so-pieces-coronavirus.html

Sample quote

Our chemists used a massive database to match the approved drugs and proteins they interact with to the proteins on our list. They found 10 candidate drugs last week. For example, one of the hits was a cancer drug called JQ1. While we cannot predict how this drug might affect the virus, it has a good chance of doing something. Through testing, we will know if that something helps patients.

Facing the threat of global border shutdowns, we immediately shipped boxes of these 10 drugs to two of the few labs in the world working with live coronavirus samples: at the Pasteur Institute in Paris and Mount Sinai in New York. By March 13, the drugs were being tested in cells to see if they prevent the virus from reproducing.

Our team will soon learn from our collaborators at Mt. Sinai and the Pasteur Institute whether any of these first 10 drugs work against SARS-CoV-2 infections. Meanwhile, the team has continued fishing with viral baits, finding hundreds of additional human proteins that the coronavirus co-opts. We will be publishing the results in the online repository BioRxiv soon.

The good news is that so far, our team has found 50 existing drugs that bind the human proteins we've identified. This large number makes me hopeful that we'll be able to find a drug to treat COVID-19. If we find an approved drug that even slows down the virus's progression, doctors should be able to start getting it to patients quickly and save lives

End quote

On the tube I watched a guy say there were some real "hot spots" And cited were California and New York.
Out of curiosity I did a little research and found the "Hot Spots defined by Per Capita and by Shear numbers is somewhat interesting and perhaps should be used for education those in charge and also the populace so steps can be taken. Numbers are from earlier today. I am a retired engineer and data is interesting.
Hot Spots are definately around high concentrations of people and one can nearly forget geo-political boundaries when slinging diatribes. What I see is some of the State (Areas) with lowest population have high infection rates. Conversely California with the most population is toward the middle of infection rate.
Rank is Highest per capita dx with cv19 - Sorry Excel does not import real well, but follow down the chart.

Infection
Rank Pop Rank Population cv19 cases % of pop
1 4 New York 19,440,469 5365 2.760%
2 13 Washington 7,797,095 1376 1.765%
3 25 Louisiana 4,645,184 392 0.844%
4 11 New Jersey 8,936,574 742 0.830%
5 50 District of Columbia 720,687 40 0.555%
6 21 Colorado 5,845,526 277 0.474%
7 15 Massachusetts 6,976,597 328 0.470%
8 29 Connecticut 3,563,077 159 0.446%
9 45 Rhode Island 1,056,161 44 0.417%
10 43 Maine 1,345,790 52 0.386%
11 51 Vermont 628,061 22 0.350%
12 6 Illinois 12,659,682 422 0.333%
13 10 Michigan 10,045,029 334 0.333%
14 42 New Hampshire 1,371,246 44 0.321%
15 52 Wyoming 567,025 18 0.317%
16 46 Delaware 982,895 30 0.305%
17 32 Nevada 3,139,658 95 0.303%
18 20 Wisconsin 5,851,754 159 0.272%
19 8 Georgia 10,736,059 287 0.267%
20 30 Utah 3,282,115 80 0.244%
21 1 California 39,937,489 952 0.238%
22 48 North Dakota 761,723 18 0.236%
23 16 Tennessee 6,897,576 154 0.223%
24 27 Oregon 4,301,089 88 0.205%
25 33 Arkansas 3,038,999 62 0.204%
26 3 Florida 21,992,985 417 0.190%
27 19 Maryland 6,083,116 107 0.176%
28 35 Mississippi 2,989,260 50 0.167%
29 37 New Mexico 2,096,640 35 0.167%
30 5 Pennsylvania 12,820,878 206 0.161%
31 24 Alabama 4,908,621 78 0.159%
32 22 Minnesota 5,700,671 89 0.156%
33 23 South Carolina 5,210,095 81 0.155%
34 38 Nebraska 1,952,570 29 0.149%
35 31 Iowa 3,179,849 44 0.138%
36 49 Alaska 734,002 9 0.123%
37 47 South Dakota 903,027 11 0.122%
38 36 Kansas 2,910,357 34 0.117%
39 9 North Carolina 10,611,862 123 0.116%
40 12 Virginia 8,626,207 99 0.115%
41 41 Hawaii 1,412,687 16 0.113%
42 28 Oklahoma 3,954,821 44 0.111%
43 7 Ohio 11,747,694 119 0.101%
44 44 Montana 1,086,759 11 0.101%
45 17 Indiana 6,745,354 60 0.089%
46 2 Texas 29,472,295 260 0.088%
47 26 Kentucky 4,499,692 37 0.082%
48 14 Arizona 7,378,494 45 0.061%
49 39 Idaho 1,826,156 11 0.060%
50 18 Missouri 6,169,270 31 0.050%
51 40 West Virginia 1,778,070 2 0.011%

Don't hate me but:

1. Hurricane season officially starts June 1
2. Hurricanes seem to be starting earlier each year in past years
3. They also seem to be getting stronger/larger
4. There is no scientific reason hurricanes cannot form before 6/1
5. They already have
6. Atlantic hurricanes potentially threaten many states/population
7. The loss of life of elderly patients at a nursing home during IRMA with a power outage and loss of life was well documented
8. I have no idea the difficulty of moving a large number of patients on respirators when in an evacuation area
9. There are no shelters that can separate evacuees during a hurricane
10. Since it has been widely reported few saw this pandemic coming, I'm fairly confident the impact or just the threat of a hurricane with a full blown pandemic occurring has not been considered, or it so gruesome those in the know, will not discuss it.

Knowledge is power in some peoples eyes.

Florida stopped all indoor dining today.

https://www.heraldtribune.com/news/...governor-closes-all-restaurants-and-gyms

Other natural disasters could pop-up as well. There was a 5.2 earthquake off the coast of Eureka in far nor cal and another 4.5 just a few minutes ago by Carson City NV. Those were not bad for damage but I thought about the logistics and monetary crush one would deliver if it hit so cal.
Our elected people and their appointees are probably thinking they did not sign up for this.

Well jCc ..., jsta called Applebees... they are closed now at 10 but they don’t have knowledge of orders to close for sit down dining.....

Today ... because the crowds were light they have given the word DISTANCING new meaning......

30% occupancy... at least one table separation....

If THAT is not reasonable and acceptable......

then CLOSE DOWN the grocery stores because distancing and separation THERE is not even that generous.

I’m sure MOST OF US WILL AGREE .... the large LARGE percentage of those folks have feathered their beds BIG TIME .... and should do twice the work that they are assigned to do ....

Drug professor and radio show host Joe Graedon on Chloroquine:

https://www.peoplespharmacy.com/art...uine-and-hydroxychloroquine-for-covid-19

Here's a great visual representation of the goal behind social distancing and stay-at-home requirements.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/grap...aWWwr24_6_JKhot-OCMXEcbaghkytrVjEjn5i0tA

It is a great visualization. I wish they would put something like this on the TV. Last sentence in the presentation is sombering, “in real life some of the dots should disappear”.

For those of us that have friends or relatives in nursing homes or assisted living this has to be even more difficult.

Yes, we have a plethora of horrific possibilities, but few have such a large potential area and population impact, that provides an advance warning for mass evacuation and storing of needed supplies with a threatening hurricane. Since normally only a small percentage are actually impacted by a storm, its those that aren't, and are packed together while waiting, with all the supplies normally told to acquire pre storm by the authorities, and now found in very scare quantities, sure looks like the proverbial perfect storm to me.

Granted ,the chances are very slim, like the chances of this current pandemic.

Not sure many support local restaurants more then I do, to tune of eating out on the average pre COVID `15? times a week.
I will survive Applebees/Pizza Parlors/etc closing their dining, it would be very difficult for me losing access to a grocery store.

That being said, I emailed Gov DeSantis my idea last night of going to alternate check out lanes in the grocery stores. We'll see.

I'm sure there are other possibilities to mitigate the spread of COVID in a grocery store, such you must wear a mask inside, every one must push a grocery cart, empty or full when in the store, to help maintain spacing, etc

We have to try.

To expand upon the data I posted above I looked for a site that showed cases per county. I live in California and knew the highest numbers of infected were in the SF Bay Area and the LA Basin. I thought about the rest of the country and portions with the highest concentrations of people, especially eastern seaboard. Many were among the highest percapita infection rate. I then located one of those night time satellite photos that show the country at night that really shows concentrations of people. Wow, what and eye opener. Granted most high per capoita infections are in highly populated areas, yet a few sparsely populated states (albeit concetrations) have high per capita. A lot can be determined if one chooses to seek local data showing numbers of infection (by county of the various states) and them see if age demographics are available. Regardless the pic is there to ponder.

Some recovered COVID patients report they started feeling better then suddenly got worse:

https://www.nbcnews.com/health/heal...symptoms-often-linger-worsening-n1164756

Sample quote

Dr Denison said nearly all of his most critically ill patients have a combination of three specific underlying medical problems: obesity, high blood pressure and type 2 diabetes.

End quote

What they seem to fail to mention unfortunately, it apparently helps little if the diseases are being medicated and under control.

I have all three under control/medication, and have lost 52 lbs since 11-5-19, and still trending downward.

I take this very seriously.

In case it hasn't been posted:

This is from an immunologist at Johns Hopkins University:

Feeling confused as to why Coronavirus is a bigger deal than Seasonal flu? Here it is in a nutshell. I hope this helps. Feel free to share this to others who don’t understand…
It has to do with RNA sequencing…. ie. genetics.

Seasonal flu is an “all human virus”. The DNA/RNA chains that make up the virus are recognized by the human immune system. This means that your body has some immunity to it before it comes around each year… you get immunity two ways…through exposure to a virus, or by getting a flu shot.

Novel viruses, come from animals…the WHO tracks novel viruses in animals, (sometimes for years watching for mutations). Usually these viruses only transfer from animal to animal (pigs in the case of H1N1), (birds in the case of the Spanish flu). But once, one of these animal viruses mutates, and starts to transfer from animals to humans, then it’s a problem, Why? Because we have no natural or acquired immunity…the RNA sequencing of the genes inside the virus isn’t human, and the human immune system doesn’t recognize it so, we can’t fight it off.

Now…sometimes, the mutation only allows transfer from animal to human. For years it’s only transmission is from an infected animal to a human before it finally mutates so that it can now transfer from human to human…once that happens, we have a new *contagion phase*…and depending on the fashion of this new mutation, that will decide how contagious, or deadly it’s gonna be.
H1N1 was deadly…but it did not mutate in a way that was as deadly as the Spanish flu. It’s RNA was slower to mutate and it attacked its host differently, too.

*Fast forward*.
Now, here comes this Coronavirus…it existed in animals only, for nobody knows how long. But one day, at an animal market, in Wuhan China, in December 2019, it mutated and made the jump from animal to people. At first, only animals could give it to a person…But here is the scary part…in just *TWO WEEKS* it mutated again and gained the ability to jump from human to human. Scientists call this quick ability, *“slippery”*

This Coronavirus, not being in any form a “human” virus (whereas we would all have some natural or acquired immunity), took off like a rocket. This was because, Humans have no known immunity…doctors have no known medicines for it.

It just so happens that this particular mutated animal virus, changed itself in such a way that it causes great damage to human lungs.

That’s why Coronavirus is different from seasonal flu, or H1N1 or any other type of influenza…this one is “slippery”. It’s a lung eater. It’s already mutated AGAIN, so that we now have *two strains* to deal with, *strain S* and *strain L*, which make it twice as hard to develop a vaccine for. *We really have no tools in our shed, with this*.

*History has shown that fast and immediate closings of public places has helped in the past pandemics.* Philadelphia and Baltimore were reluctant to close events in 1918 and they were the hardest hit in the US during the Spanish Flu.

Factoid: Henry VIII stayed in his room and allowed no one near him, till the Black Plague passed…(honestly…I understand him so much better now). Just like us, he had no tools in his shed, except social isolation!
And let me end by saying…right now it’s hitting older folks harder… but this genome is so slippery…if it mutates again (and it will) who is to say, what it will do next.
Be smart…acting like you’re unafraid is not smart right now.

Stay home folks…and share this with those that just are not catching on. Please explain the gravity of this to your children. It’s going to be hard, they will be bored, but this is the only way we can help flatten the curve.

Minutia COVID comment clarification.

NY Gov Cuomo made an analogy a few days ago and effectively stated "Testing (COVID) is like what missiles were to WW2"

Sorry that was an inept odd analogy IMO.

Missiles usually have a guidance system. The only main known ones were used by the Germans late in the war, were mainly ineffective infrastructure wise, and primarily served as a revenge terror weapon.

A better more relate-able analogy to WW2 should have more like, "Testing (COVID) is like the the Jeep of WW2".

At a little past the 7:45 minute mark in this youtube video there is information about the over the counter supplement Quercetin, which at a dose of 3000 to 6000 mg per day might be beneficial against COVID-19 for similar reasons that Hydroxy-Chloroquine is. Quercetin is generally in 500 mg tablets. Previously Quercetin has been found to treat Influenza and Ebola viruses.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vE4_LsftNKM

Well, this is interesting:

https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/im...ege-COVID19-NPI-modelling-16-03-2020.pdf

Summary of the report:
https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1239975682643357696.html

Treat it like the flu, and we'd lose closer to 4 million people, and 8-15% over 70.

eek

Well the applebees is closed NOW ... drove by earlier. Not even for take out from what I saw.

This is from a friend in Bergamo, Italy.

Todays Update:
not really on the COVID19 (793 deads, of which 546 in Lombardy alone) but on how we got that hell here.

The most credited theory is
A F.....G soccer match.

The numbers seems all right:
ATALANTA-VALENCIA, Soccer Match on 19 FEB 2020, SAN SIRO STADIUM, MILAN, LOMBARDY

COVID 19 was still thought as a Chinese thing, 45,000 fans from the northern regions watched the match (Atalanta is the Bergamo team, and it was sort of the higher match/championship run. Not a soccer fan, so I'm bit ignorant)

MARCH 4, 14 exact days after the match, when the first cases were found and they were searching for patient 0, the sky falls on Bergamo and it begins the shitslide what you see now.

MARCH 9, Atalanta team goes in Valencia, playing a closed door match. Thank god no fans watching. Stadium was sold out.

MARCH 16, Valencia coach says that all his personnel is found positive to Corona Virus.

This all seems very plausible. We had 45K patient 0's.

(Edited, Spell checked is all)

jCc ... you know more than most here .....

A Q that’s been bugging me .....

If the max life of the virus is 48 hours ... why not let any used masks 48 hours to DRY OUT in the sun light then reuse them ?

They need to make some Ozone air boxes that they can put these used mask's in and flow 2 hours of pure Ozone and then a few hours of just clean HEPA filtered air.
Not many things living on this earth can survive 2 hours of Ozone.

Similar Q = if 86* F kills the virus can hot water washing or heating in a dryer or autoclave be utilized?

THERE you go guys ..... 86 degrees ? It was 89 today in Florida...

Hell ....pop them in a 100 degree oven !

4

Keep in mind doc that reports say that is the case. HOWEVER, the entire southern hemisphere, while slow to get rolling with the outbreak (temps?, less affluent travellers?) now has many. I also feel it may likely be airborne solely because of the rate of dispersion to even remote islands.
Other reports claim the virus has morphed a couple times since it wis isolated. Lastly the country previously known as the ussr has jumped on the tally up bandwagon. I expect more and more attempts by the power brokers there to control the news flow.

Back from the pool and hot tub ....

Arnold had it over me ... I didn’t have a hat or stogie or underwater maid !

How about a box to put those masks in with a hair dryer blowing in !

100 degrees in no time !

Then before I left ... on Jesse’s show was Dr Oz !

If new masks are available use them.

But if old masks must be reused
my guess is that they could be
exposed to UV light, (UV from sun highest near noon)
sprayed with alcohol and allowed to dry,
or heated to a temperature just below where the elastic breaks down.

Masks are most valuable to put on sick people, including sick people who do not yet feel they are sick.

Since there is a 4 to 10 day incubation period before symptoms are felt when you wear a mask in public you are mainly doing a great favor to other people.

Masks do reduce by about a 1/3 your chances of breathing in a relatively fat water droplet that was coughed/sneezed out from a sick person.

In low humidity fat droplets evaporate away to small droplets that can go through masks.
This is a time to hope for high humidity to come early.

In high humidity warm weather fat droplets stay fat much longer because evaporation is much less and these fat droplets sink faster to the ground where the virus fairly quickly becomes inactive.

My life cal Harbor Freight donated all of their rubber gloves to those in need. Kinda funny walking down the rows where the gloves used to be stacked.

Jsta before the V hit I picked up THIS ..... I’m carrying one of these in the car ....

Maybe not the most pleasant smelling butttt ....

According to the CDC .... bleach works

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Favipiravir

Seems to have worked in both Chinese and Japanese small trials in humans against the Wuhan novel coronavirus.

With 5 drugs now identified
plus Gamma Globulin Serum from recovered patients’ blood donations,
it now looks like
outstanding Logistics
is what is needed to get
drugs, tests and supplies to where they are needed.

Things could be far worse...

https://medicalxpress.com/news/2020-03-crisis-hit-venezuelans-homemade-remedies-virus.html

Eqyally good and more concentrated is swim pool chlorine. Runs about 10%, regular bleach is o.k., but generally has additives (smell, anty splash, etc).
Mix pool chlorine down and also mix straight chlorox down by a formula you find on-line. I don't want to be responsible. I'll add this: pour the chlorine into the water, not vice versa.
Another method to sanitize using uv is an air pump with tubing connected to a stainless steel container with a high discharge uv light tube inside.The ss container has a fitting to attach another tube that runs to a large container or small room and the pump runs air through the ozonze rich ss container and onto the ozone treatment box/room.
One source is "revolution ozone", others can be found by searching ozone generator or ozone treatment for water. I have one on our water system to remove iron and sanitize water that can be easily retrofitted by unplugging one tube and plugging in a second tube into my treatment box. It's a large plastic storage box with snap on lid. Ozone is heavier than air and will fill the box anything needing sanitized is simply placed into the box where it becomes submerged in the "pool
of ozone. Leave items in there long enough to drown the item in deadly oxygen absent oxone. Also do not have this in your house as it will kill you very similar to drowning.
I am also curious if sweat houses the native indians of the pacific northwest could be effective in ridding people of this virus.

Not sure i agree with your initial premise.

I might concede I might be more intense and outspoken then normal.

To address your question, I think a bigger more pertinent question, which I mentioned briefly days ago and it got little traction here, any "95" series mask with a breathing "valve", only stops the virus from being transmitting one direction, on the intake. Many "industrial" masks have this feature, they cost slightly more money, and are rather beneficial when used by a wearer doing exerting labor outdoors. I wonder if the recent exemption of liability congress passed, took this into account, because it really promotes a lot of false hope to those nearby a wearer, IMO.


Also IMO, sunlight is normally a great disinfectant, why I like grabbing an empty grocery cart that has been left in the sunlight, vs one racked inside the air conditioned store.

Unless you live next to say an outdoor land fill, the sun/heat is your friend for killing bad stuff if kept dry.

Anyone desiring one explanation and overview of the outbreak:
->Click<-
From some intermediate host (turtle, pangolin, or?) to pandemic in < 3months!
Interesting to me that in state of Hubei (where Wuhan Market Source is located) there are 67,800 infected (pop = 58.5m).
USA has an estimated population of 329m (Jan of 2020). We have nearly 5 times the population and over approx 1/2 the amount of cases. Granted the market was a breeding ground and the responsibles in the state suppressed info giving the virus a head start. Seems we are running a parallel course with our numbers on the up-swing. We find ourselves now treating w/o test results (good move over the option of sending petri dishes home). Seems like the powers have gained attention and are now going after this thing that will be cutting life short for some and hitting all of our pocketbooks for the rest of our lives.
This surreal situation is much like bloodletting of the 1700's, saping the strength of our population. many unidentified effects.
Lastly beware if this morphs again. This virus is not a life form nor a chemical "thing" it's not known how it can react at any time after right now.

Read:

https://www.dailywire.com/news/fren...t=032220-news&utm_campaign=position2

USA map of where hospitals with at least one Intensive Care Unit bed are

https://khn.org/news/as-coronavirus...icans-live-in-counties-with-no-icu-beds/

Sample quote

Overall, 18 million people live in counties that have hospitals but no ICU, about a quarter of them 60 or older, the analysis shows. Nearly 11 million more Americans reside in counties with no hospital, some 2.7 million of them seniors.
Snip

Consider the homes of two midsize cities: The Louisville area of Jefferson County, Kentucky, for instance, has one ICU bed for every 442 people age 60 or older, while in Santa Cruz, California, that number stands at one bed for every 2,601 residents.

Differences are vast within each state as well: San Francisco, with one bed for every 532 older residents, and Los Angeles, with 847 residents per bed, both have greater bed availability than does Santa Cruz.

Even counties that rank in the top 10% for ICU bed count still have as many as 450 older people potentially competing for each bed.

End quote

Interesting. A lawyer from New York who is now "an advisor to the Stanford University School of Medicine" pusing this idea up a flag pole. What's his stake in this?
Found to be not completely inaccurate days ago. It's a complete tragedy for our Government or Press to pawn the latest snake oil. I think it's best to let legitimate researchers do the work. I can't believe the media that stoops to offering false hope that leads segments of populations to throw caution to the wind. Right now older sick people are the most common victim. What happens should younger populations (by sheer numbers of miscreants who ignore public health directives) who are infected and infect others become the carrier of a morph that starts killing younger groups off? Remember shear numbers and flatten the curve.
Sound far fetched? This virus has already morphed as it is generally believed to have have started to an intestinal virus in bats and transferred to turtles or pangolins that were sold to be eaten at the market in China. At some time between bat and human it morphed into a respiratory virus that includes gene sequence seen in pangolin viruses. That is what we have now, scary virus transferred to humans by an odd looking food/medicine that has no cure. Who knows how this virus will look in a few days or months from now.
Shear numbers and flatten the curve so that there is less opportunity for this virus to morph leaving us with chasing cures.
I wrote Shear intentionally as we need to cut the number of infected people spreading this crap about.
P.S. ->Click<- For wWIRED article that explains the lawyer/consultant/smoke/mirrors.

So you are saying the drug trials going on around the world with this 1-2 punch showing 100% cure rate are BS? According to the article, the French did a controlled roll-out to 40 patients, & it knocked the virus completely out of all 40. What don't you believe? That the UFO that landed in your yard that you watched & walked inside of was not a UFO?

Give it time. Clinical trials with peer review oft times have results.
Will this? Who knows, but with the sources included in the viral spread of the "news" I'll keep my fingers crossed that legitimate research will bring forth something that works.
If you read and follow all the news on the cocktail with the time that has elapsed since the "researchers" found promise I would think the cocktail therapy would have widespread acceptance and in use saving lives.
So for now leave the flood-gates open and do not focus on one miracle. Also powers that be need to shut the door on any info that suggests young and middle age people should feel free to move about as they will live through this.
p.s. I'll leave the tin foil on the shelves for people that really need it.

https://www.sciencemag.org/news/202...ur-most-promising-coronavirus-treatments

To the Naysayers that keep searching the web for any small tidbits to push your naysaying ways.....

GET OFF MY LAWN!

87 year old rubella vaccine inventor still working on today’s threat

https://www.sciencemag.org/news/202...k-rubella-working-defeat-new-coronavirus

Sample quote

Q: Before the rubella vaccine was licensed in 1969, rubella was cyclical, coming in outbreaks every 4 to 6 years. Should we expect that with the novel coronavirus?

A: That is the $64,000 question. I really have no firm answer to that. We all hope—and I underline hope—that the [novel] coronavirus will not persist in the population in some mild form that could pop up again and again. Bear in mind that there are three or four [different] respiratory coronaviruses that were isolated years ago and which are still circulating, and which cause fortunately mild respiratory infections. They are not going away. And we just don’t know about this coronavirus. That’s why the effort to develop a vaccine in the shortest possible time is so important. Because obviously if next winter [it] returns, we must have a vaccine by that time.

End quote

I really want a pizza.

Lets not forget the anti vaccine crowd.
Also, the cocktail supposedly lessens the duration of the infection, it does not prevent one from getting it.
It's a treatment and not a vaccine.
I'd encourage everyone to ferret out the truth rather than looking for what we want to hear.
Doing so has got the world to where it is. I don't think everything has to be a tug-o-war or point counterpoint or fox/cnn battle of wits. We all need good sources of news right now and not fall prey to disseminating info creating false hope of defeating this Chimera.

Dang, pizza sounds good right now!

Just reading this thread makes me ill...

Pretty typical for Moparts general threads.

Even though they’ve locked down IL, carry out is still open. I just went out and picked up a pan pizza at my favorite pizza place.
I did take my canister of wipes with and wiped my hands and door handle after getting back in the car. And tossed the box after getting home and removing the pizza from it, and hope my precautions will allow me to survive.
It was damn good and have enough leftovers for a meal or two later this week. But not “to die for”.
My favorite Chinese carry out that I order from every couple weeks is in the same strip mall, and was closed with a sign in the window saying closed due to the outbreak.

One big problem with touting potential treatments before they are confirmed
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/us/l...navirus-treatment/ar-BB11xIIQ?li=BBnbcA1

One problem with poor journalism

https://techcrunch.com/2020/03/19/f...ic-combo-could-reduce-covid-19-duration/

Availability

https://www.drugs.com/availability/generic-plaquenil.html

More hype to gin up fear

Ordered a Calzone last night. It was great

My opinion is not allowed to be verbalized here but,

You must trust the really smart.

Returning to the N95 mask discussion. I checked my shop today, and one of the boxes of N95 masks on the back of the shelf I had thought was a box of 50 is only 20, but still had the price tag on it, $2.95 . I do and still do during this downturn do a lot of fiberglass, Carbon fiber, body filler, metal grinding etc

I have other "100" organic masks and the typical nuisance dust masks, which are almost worthless, except I wonder how useful they might be wearing over a N95 mask, as a pre filer to extend a N95 useful life?

I was also thinking about how non medical users could safely extend the private use of non valve N95 masks, based on the earlier suggestion of using 48hrs? of sunlight/UV to disinfect.

I was wondering what full emulsion in Hydrogen peroxide, isopropyl alcohol ( maybe test one with a drop or two added of Tincture of iodine to get some long term virus/microbial benefits?), 10% bleach/water, and/or boiling water would do to the composition of the mask. Even if it degraded it a bit, it could extend its life in this crisis. I would think in all cases keeping the retaining straps above the method chosen, would help to protect them, and not sure the straps are a big hazard item anyway.

I haven't decided yet to "sacrifice" 4? masts to test them out, and I have no way to verify any non visual degradation, nor real effectiveness in sterilizing/disinfecting the masks.

Any suggestions?

PS, I'm all for anchovies

I wouldnt test on your masks.. I talked to my Doc buddy and he said they are worth like gold
right now.. I gave him my last box of the 95s.. I did keep 2 for the wife and I... if needed...
EDIT
I did also dive him a box of non sterile nitrite gloves if he wantd them.. I also do a bunch of carbon fiber
and glass work

Something tells me that my opinion might get me a vay-cay too if it was put into print.

I just finished eating Pizza, it was great.

I find it a bit amusing that the US government is alarmed at how "fast" the virus appears to be spreading in the US.
Lets see, very few tests until some doctor ordered tests for people he suspected already had the virus. Then, a few weeks after some of the few tests that were ordered showed positive, mass availability of testing appears and they are alarmed to find many people test positive? What exactly did they expect? With first no testing except people already suspected of having the virus, to easily accessible testing, and they find out many people test positive? No fooling? I have 0 medical experience, but even I expected there were probably a lot of people that had not been tested that already had the virus.
But, let those in charge not take advantage of the sudden increase in the number of positive test results. Just look at all the things they can push through that will put a lot of money into a few peoples pockets at the expense of everyone else. In a few short weeks, they have managed to put everyone in the USA, and in most of the world into the care of the world governments. How we all come out on the end of this disaster will depend on who is in charge, and that thought scares me more then this pandemic.

Don't misunderstand me, my wife and I are taking more precautions then we ever did before, which is probable a good thing to some level. I wonder if we, as a country, have gone from one extreme to the other. What I'm saying is, don't let the "current rapid expansion" of the virus distract your watch for those willing and now able to take advantage of the situation. Can you imagine how expensive the "cure drug" for this pandemic could be, once one is found? Probably the best outcome will be if 3 or 4 research facilities find 3 or 4 different cures at about the same time. Then, maybe they can turn all that research towards something like a cure for cancer. Gene

"have gone from one extreme to the other"

Almost ironic, isn't it, in only 4 weeks.

Those that study history will do well to remember our history from 1929 till 1933 and all that entailed.

Steve Hilton has a good monologue on his program.... repeated at midnight EST

Costco can help with that.

Im suprised we have not heard the words "Martial Law" in the mix with all this.

Although the search engines show it a bit, if they do I think its a sticky deal as doesnt it remove alot of the citizens constitutional rights? If so im not feeling fuzzy inside about that.

Post away, just make sure the true intent of your comments are thinly veiled.

[align:center][/align]

Last week I looked it up on the website for CDC or WHO. Actually had a different question and I don't read the random stuff posted on random websites. One of those sources had posted some data about culturing viruses for lab study and included some info about viability of the samples. The take away for what I needed is that the thing dies at temps above 50c which is about 132f.

I tried asking google about the typical temperature of an Indian sweat lodge but the best I got was "over 100f".

People can really be dumb too..

Guy comes in this morning , says .. everyone is sick at home , suppose I will come down with it to now ..

Not sure if "thin" or "thick" is best in this context.

A related Op ed, true leadership is seldom anything one can willfully acquire, one is born with it. It also seems to mainly rise to the occasion at hand, in the most tumultuous times. It is also seldom self serving.

Pseudo leadership credit given sometimes is really just the manifest of fear from retribution, humiliation, etc, which usually leads figuratively to self implosion. History has many examples. Leadership requires earned trust, and competence, tone is only a superficial quality..

Great leaders are a blessing, never self declared, and often only scattered over time..

Many are posting thinly veiled comments and it just plain sucks, I could easily say its recess vs vacation time and ones watching the news would know who exactly im talking about in our political world.

Most the jack wagons in our gov. right now seem to have there heads up there ars, on both sides, can we please not do it here?

Putting one's head anywhere is likely why we are in this current predicament.

The rest of your assumption is very subjective and screams PC as seen thru your eyes, understand others should have the option to disagree, and "sticks and stones may break................." still holds true.

Seems to me, these objections often arise when exerting self control is achieved by others, in that they see sharing a differing thought cannot be done with out clearly resorting to violating "rules", and they get frustrated when others can stay within the lines.

Chances are, anybody on this site that takes a vacation, will return to "RIP" threads of some members here.

This topic is about life and death of people, let me thickly veil this , not s....s, w...s, t.....s, R.........s, D..........s, etc.

Let's Hope this guy is right:
Dr thinks it might fade quicker than most think

I appreciate these threads as a community we can share thoughts and ideas. We are ever barraged by endless replays of soundbites, images and articles that have no basis in reality save for the desired effect of taking away individuals independent thinking.
I encourage my kids and friends to ferret out the source of information and use their grey matter to develop their own opinions.
Ferreting often leads one to see there are many layers to a subject, much like an onion. The outside may look good, but as we peel away the outer layers what do we find. Sometimes all is good, other times it's distorted or even rotten.
With that look at the reality of where we are today as a people. A people made of many different beliefs, and opinions molded by a lifetime of input beginning at birth. We don't get to pick our parents nor much of what the media blasts at us every day in an attempt to remove our independent thoughts. I generally do not watch much tv and always explore information presented by the media. I like to go to the source not the author. Too often researching an author will expose a bias.
My bias is the truth, I'll always behold integrity, liberty sacred and the constitution high.
Let's try to get along, with hopes most will survive with unencumbered freedom.

Has anyone heard how quickly bleach kills this virus?

I have a cocktail of bleach and water in a spray bottle in my car ... probably a 50/50 mix ......not the most pleasant scent but if it works I’m fine with it.

A neighbor has some lavender scented bleach ... I might try that

That would be awesome... but Hong Kong started out pretty good, but are having another surge now that they've relaxed the social distancing rules.

I'm not optimistic that this thing will go away until we reach herd immunity, and/or a vaccine is released

WHERE did that quote of me come from ?

I remember posting about being in the condo hot tub but sweat houses ??

And btw ... the hot tub is around 104 to 106 ... PLUS its heavily chlorinated... so that’s safe I hope.

Is everyone taking a HIGHER DOSE of vitamin C ?

Carry on with your babble, some people just cant be reasoned with or reached.

My recess/vacation was a reference to one of your fav ladies in gov who just returned. She tried to make it sound as it wasnt just that with some bs phrase vs vacation. DA. as in DA, not Dumb A... so dont take offense.

New news from china...

Hmm.

Foreign Ministry spokesman Zhao Lijian tweeted, "US CDC admitted some #COVID19 patients were misdiagnosed as flu during the 2019 flu season. 34 million infected & 20,000 died. If #COVID19 began last September, & US has been lack of test ability, how many people would have been infected? US should find out when patient zero appeared."

Oh it's been tossed around here in the Great White North.

It used to be called The War Measures Act. That sounds all scary so they changed it to The Emergency Act. The sheep will stay calmer now.

In any case it has been discussed by the Government but they announced it wasn't necessary AT THIS TIME.

Veiled threat anyone?

Kevin

Just wondering.. do you get all your info from tweets... that would be one of the last places I would be looking
but thats just me... have a good day

NO wise guy, it was part of a major news story on a major news site.

Try contributing something positive next post.

https://www.foxnews.com/world/china-coronavirus-america-media-propaganda-war

My lovely wife is a Family Practice MD, entering her 3rd week working 14 hour days here in NY... the situation is not fun.

Here's some thoughts she shared - give people a snapshot of a day in her life..

"So lots of problems with someone who has a cough. It is covid 19, the flu, a cold, allergies, asthma, a smoker, heartburn, congestive heart failure? Who knows? How about someone who has a fever? So many possibilities! So we are screening people over the phone before they come in. Then we are screening them at the front desk and taking their temperature, and asking if they have been exposed to covid or a person under investigation. Then if they pass they can go into a room and we can see them.

What if they have a cough/fever at the front desk? We send the patient home and then talk to them on the phone (and have to figure out: should them be tested for covid? Should they be quarantined? What about keeping them out of work? What about medically treating them for whatever they do have but without being able to examine them?)but now has the front desk staff been exposed? Do they need to be quarantined for 7 to 14 days? Now the front staff is worried about exposing their family to covid. We didn’t even have masks for the front staff until yesterday although now we do.

So let’s say the patient passed screening and the provider is in the room with them. What if they were not honest with the front staff and now say they have a cough? Or they honestly didn’t think about it and now they remember? Now has the provider been exposed and needs to be quarantined for 7 to 14 days, and now can’t work with patients for that time? And the exam room needs to be decontaminated for a few hours. The medical director said that we should be wearing masks for all patients with a cough, but again we didn’t have enough masks until yesterday.

And now the kids. Kids come down with sudden fever and cough all the time, something we routinely see every week in normal circumstances, but now the parent is nervous about Covid? Go back to step one and apply to kids, the same treatment problems, with the added dimension of a freaked out parent, who isn't or can't be clear about the kid's symptoms.

And all these questions come up in various permutations about 50 times a day. And I haven’t even gotten into the decision whether they need/ can be tested...

So actually I think it’s easier to treat covid patients. You KNOW the situation - you have to wear personal protective equipment with them. With the general population who knows?

Yeah. And there are no right answers to a lot of these questions and the guidelines can change every day.

And still taking care of all the regular medical problems but trying to do much of it over the phone which has its challenges.

Sometimes crisis bring out the best in people and sometimes it brings out the worst. Patients are generally lovely as I said before but I had one complain that she had to wait 20 minutes to see me. Really?!"

Cheers,
- Art

The wifes sister just sent a e-mail saying see is now positive for the 19 virus but she is feeling fine for the time
being... she lives in Colorado

I mentioned a while back in this thread, that 2 patients at my mom’s assisted living facility were diagnosed with covid 19. Late last week a 3rd was diagnosed, this one in her independent living wing.
She just forwarded an email from the facility that one patient passed away yesterday.

The six degrees of separation is closer as time passes. Our large extended family is yet unscathed or undetected for the time being. The way some of them carry on I'm surprised.

i saw a news article that said, a place called Chateau Senior in Illinois has 30 residents positive for covid19 and 12 of the staff. so sad.

At my mom’s place, they still aren’t testing the residents afaik. She said someone comes to her door in the morning and checks her temperature with one of those no touch forehead devices.

Loss of sense of smell alone can be an early sign of COVID-19 infection:

https://medicalxpress.com/news/2020-03-loss-covid-.html

Sample quote
“ While further research is required, loss of smell, or anosmia, has been reported in as many as one in three patients in South Korea and, in Germany, this figure was as high as two in three patients," says Professor of Otolaryngology (head and neck surgery) at Flinders University.

"An ENT professor in London has reported seeing a dramatic increase in patients with anosmia as their only symptom of COVID-19 infection."
End quote

Maybe sniff your coffee each morning and order a pizza each evening to sniff the cheeses?

Canada is going to run a clinical trial on the older inexpensive generic drug
Colchicine

https://medicalxpress.com/news/2020-03-drug-covid-complications.html

Sample quote

Several COVID-19 patients have had severe complications from a surge of activated immune cells in the lungs—known as a "cytokine storm."

In a cytokine storm, the immune system overreacts and damages lung tissue, leading to acute respiratory distress and multi-organ failure.

A team led by Jean-Claude Tardif, director of the Montreal Heart Institute research center and professor of medicine at the University of Montreal, are hoping the drug colchicine will work to moderate the overproduction of immune cells and their activating compounds—called cytokines—in COVID-19 patients.

If it proves to be successful, the drug—
which is already used to treat gout and pericarditis (inflammation of the heart membrane),
and is readily available and inexpensive—could become a key tool in the pandemic fight.

End quote

The 100 year old BCG vaccine may have yet another “good side effect”

https://medicalxpress.com/news/2020-03-vaccine-bcg-immune-boost-coronavirus.html

Israeli researchers recently reported that BCG vaccine might also reduce the chance of getting Alzheimers:

https://medicalxpress.com/news/2019-12-tuberculosis-vaccine-lowers-alzheimer-disease.html

BCG vaccine was in the news recently when it was discovered that perhaps it has been given wrong for over 100 years. Giving BCG vaccine in a vein instead of the traditional “under the skin” seems to work much, much better:

https://medicalxpress.com/news/2020-01-tb-vaccine-intravenously-potency.html

Edit:
More on BCG efforts around the world with explanations of how your immune system works:

https://www.sciencemag.org/news/202...el-immune-system-against-new-coronavirus

Thank you 360view for the link to medical xpress. On the homepage I found an article that I will be talking with my Oncologist at UCSF with hopes of ridding 13 yrs of nerve pain.

Oh crap, things just got real here........

https://www.galvnews.com/news/free/article_009d2812-5893-5023-98e2-36d47e9a6706.html

Coronavirus updates: Galveston County to order shelter in place starting Tuesday evening.

This article sort of pieces together why the POTUS has a very different tune this afternoon regarding Asian-Americans and very explicitly did not refer to it as the "Chinese Virus".

Interesting.

Yeah.. here in Mich we go on lock down tonight at mid night but I have been for about a week

Scented bleach is not allowed by by the health dept for use as a sanitizer, and will get a restuarant a critical health violation, and has for decades, keep the plain. Clorox site lists the ratios, depends on if it is plain or concentrated clorox. Pretty sure they said 30 seconds.

.... but this for personal use ! ... is it that the scented isn’t as effective? What’s the reason for the health department directive?

No idea, pretty sure scented does not say kills 99.9% of everything. Could be nobody had paid to have them tested. I do know clorox commercial gallons are one of only 2 certified to kill corona on the clorox site, it does not say that on the bottles yet.

Cool THX .... but neither of the bleach I have access to is the Clorox brand ..

doc, read the % of cl on the lable if 5% use 3/4 cup to a gallon of water.
adjust if it's 4 %, by reducing the gallon (128 oz) 20% ( to approx 100 oz)
always add the clorox to the water.
If you can find pool chlorine it's 10 % use 3/4 cup to 2 gallons water.
Keep the mixture in a cool dark place tightly capped.
Don't store it in a spray bottle unless it's for use with caustic materials i.e. chemical resistant.

They may be fine, go to that brands website and ask, all the same acid I think, just the scent is an impurity.

Before there was a medicalxpress.com there was

https://www.eurekalert.org/bysubject/?kw=104&start=30

Medicalxpress is a good site with an emphasis on clear layman’s writing style,
but eurekalert.org usually has information one to two days earlier than medical xpress
with longer articles with more details.

Doctor advocates “white scarf” warnings to fellow citizens....

https://www.statnews.com/2020/03/23/white-scarf-door-lifesaving-lesson-1918-pandemic/

As mentioned earlier, the county I live in goes into lock down at midnight tonight. However, my job is not in the same county and not in lock down. Its also a 'non-essential' job.

Do I just keep going until they get locked down?

In looking at unemployment benefits last night, I am NOT eligible to collect if I find myself unemployed even if due to the virus.

That makes no sense. Maybe their protocols have not been updated to include the special circumstances associated with this virus.

This subject was just on local TV here(by a lawyer) he stated that you have to go to work until you are ordered
out... otherwise you could be fired

Antibodies being found and sent for manufacture in TN.

https://www.tennessean.com/story/ne...nderbilt-covid-19-antibodies/2899574001/

On the Pandemic Aid being held up in the senate, put those senators that put themselves in self quarantine in protective suites and bring them in to vote. Think outside the box!!!!

Finally, been waiting for someone to do this...

Greetings from WV. So far so good. I heard one of the service writers at work wife has the virus. I guess I made the right choice. You all stay safe out there.

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=1vrEljMfXYo

Updated night image showing lights (small image in lower left) with the larger showing cv19 cases. Size of red is more people with cv19 which directly correlates to that size (and concentration of people). We are fortunate to yet have no dx as of this a.m.

Apparently a study was done on sterilizing N95 masks.

Study link

It also says to not soak it in any alcohol or chlorine based liquids, since it removes the static charge in the microfibers.

Found from https://www.reddit.com/r/COVID19/

https://medicalxpress.com/news/2020-03-drugs-fda-covid-.html

Sample quote

But even with rapid government approval, it could take months to develop new drugs from scratch that might be effective against the virus, Sadek explained in a UT Southwestern news release.

That led his team to conduct computer modeling studies on certain drugs already approved by the U.S. Food and Drug Administration, to assess their potential in combating the coronavirus.

The results showed that the most promising drugs included several antiviral drugs— including Darunavir, Nelfinavir, and Saquinavir—and several other types of drugs, including: the ACE inhibitor Moexipril; the chemotherapy drugs Daunorubicin and Mitoxantrone; the painkiller Metamizole; the antihistamine Bepotastine; and the antimalarial drug Atovaquone.

Another promising candidate is the cholesterol-lowering statin rosuvastatin, which is sold under the brand name Crestor. It's already taken by millions of patients around the world to lower their cholesterol, is safe, inexpensive and readily available, Sadek noted.

End quote

Observing the government wrestle with this pandemic is much like watching the movie no country for old men

So anyone else here have co workers who are looking forward to a shutdown? I got news yesterday that several of our employees were happy about Ohio going into lockdown.

They wanted to be paid to stay home. We aren't closing.

One did come in and he was worried about the fast spread of the virus, hes in the right age group. He stated we should shutdown because of this and we're putting him in danger by staying open. He said the company was just being greedy.

I pointed out that he has 3 weeks of vacation time and a week of sick days paid, he can stay home if he wants.

Why should I have to use my pto?

Ok, if the company closes, i have to use mine because you're afraid?

Maybe I'm reading it wrong, but this is why I said what I did:

"To qualify for unemployment benefits you must have worked for the past 12 months and have at least a minimum amount of wages required by their guidelines."

I was unemployed for almost 9 months of 2019.

And my job is considered essential. Upper management has not been there for at least two weeks because of their kids, or their elderly parent, or.....whatever. But we've been told we can't use our pto and if we're not there for reasons other than being full blown sick, we will be replaced. Period.

Yay.

unemployment article

First I have heard about a "static charge" being part of the 95 mask's methodology.

However that charge eventually has to dissipate over time and likely thru use.

I would think any water trapped, the exhaled breath is rather humid, would absorb a significant amount of anything statically charged, and heating would not replace the static charge that is lost thru burning off the moisture.

And how fast I have no idea, so this idea of gaining extended use maybe mute.

My son in law on the Florida Treasure coast and has a compromised immune system, showed many symptoms and was drive thru tested for Flu and COVID by Dr's orders 8 days ago.

He and his family have still heard of no test results.

He is self quarantined.

Everyone was screaming for "testing", seems like it turned out to be just "sampling".

Heard on the news today, CDC boarded and inspected and tested the now empty untouched cruise ship passenger quarters of the cruise ship off the Japan coast that had numerous infected COVID patients.

17 days later, they still found live COVID virus in the rooms.

I just heard an updated report, they found "genetic material", whatever that means, not "live virus".

That is not good news.

My daughter and her family live on Florida east coast north of WPB in a nice gated community on the golf course. NY I believe a week ago issued a stay at home order to reduce the spread of COVID while they deal with this crises.

The Fla governor has in the past few days required all air passengers disembarking from NY areas self quarantine if they have arrived in apst two weeks.
No idea how that can be enforced.

So my daughter and family are self quarantined because of her husbands predicament, told me today, they can't even take walk on the sidewalk because of all the families that recently arrived with kids, judging from all the license plates staying with relatives from NY, NJ, Conn, etc.

Florida might be the next NY in this crisis.

Thats too bad. Sucks for the whole east coast.

Our county (along with 7 neighboring counties) called for shelter-in-place earlier than almost anyone in the US. California's governor followed a couple of days later. We were holed up in our homes, businesses shuttered, watching in horror and amazement at people cramming together for spring break in Florida and continuing life as usual elsewhere. Slowly, other states are making the same moves, but the delay -- even measured in days -- was fatal. I am holed up - have been for a couple of weeks. I don't go out the front door, only relax in the back yard. I stocked up as soon as the news came out of China. I told my kids not to tell their friends because I didn't want their parents to think I was crazy. I've been leaving supplies on my porch for friends who are caught without the basics. I agree that California is a wacky place with some stupid policies, but we got this one right and hope everyone else can follow as quickly as possible.

Unfortunately, everywhere is going to be 'the next New York".

Though many of the major cities down there have closed down on their own, Florida is bananas for not having ordered people state wide to stay home yet. So many elderly people down there, its awful to think what the "numbers" could look like in the coming weeks. Apparently the Governor based the decision of not going to state-wide lock down on the idea that there are "unknown risks of extended confinement". This is despite the now obvious "known risk" of not enforcing social distancing being death. Makes sense.

Week two of isolation in our house seems to be going OK. We are doing pretty well with food and supplies though at some point soon we are going to need to stock up on a few perishables. Kids have gotten used to home school and in fact, our oldest has surprised us at how well he has adapted to it. My wife keeps saying that she is busier than ever trying to keep up with everything at work. She has been using a program called Zoom for her work meetings but we also used it on Sunday to video chat with our friends and our youngest sees his friends for recess with it. Works well, it helps to see people.

Working on my car a bunch but seems by the time I am able to get out there I'm wiped out from corralling the kids all day. Wife has had endless, hours-long meetings for two days so I have been on solo duty a lot. Its nice to be in the garage by myself though whether I am accomplishing things or not.

We are still seeing groups of our neighbors in close proximity walking by our house. Some are friends who we care about but it's hard to wrap your head around the idea that at this point they are still letting their kids play with other families etc. One of them seemed fairly adamant she would be back to work in the city (NYC) by the 13th. OK!

Today I spoke with someone I know fairly well on the phone who has the virus. He is a lawyer and is often in court in a busy urban area so guess he was at a higher risk of exposure. Didn't get into too much detail and he did not need to be hospitalized but said he was really sick last week, to the point of not being able to return phone calls. (do lawyers ever return calls?) Thankfully he is feeling better now and seems to be through the worst of it. Scary to think that a relatively young (50s) and healthy person would become really sick so fast but that's really what makes this so serious.

Might be nice if we could point to at least one municipality and say, "they over reacted".

Another useful quality of leadership beyond the two I have already touched on,"courage", in courage to make the tough responsible decisions.

I'm proud that our leadership has it.

FWIW, summit just retracted their last increased discounts.

Guess good times are here again for Summit.

Leadership is exactly that. Sadly, we are seeing the result of what happens when it's been abdicated at the highest levels.

Thankfully there are some actual leaders out there that are taking it upon themselves to put lives ahead of money and/or beliefs.

Locally, our county shares a Public Health Official covering a 3 county area. He's recommended and the board of supervisors have adopted some very stringent restrictions that had closed businesses, parks, public areas and gatherings in all three counties. Many activities are prohibited and the result is only 2 dx of cv19 in the three counties thus far. It's noted there have been many tests with negative results. Seems, thus far, people have been smart (ish) and the restrictions implemented have a positive effect on prevention.
Also it should be noted that for nor, statewide efforts have "flattened the curve". California is a large state with many areas concetrated with people. Fortunately, as for the pandemic, large swathes of CA are open space and sparsely populated.
One unfortunate thing is that this past weekend large groups came to these rural areas to "escape" the metro areas. Most were sent home and there is high hopes they took any contamination with them. It's stunts like that that expose an ugly side of society that has the unwarranted effect of perpetuating this malady. Lunacy abounds in the populace and only time will tell just how bad it gets.
I'll be in the group that has absolutely no intention of packing any church or attending any gathering by Easter Sunday.

Existing drug tPA may help most severely ill COVID-19 patients,
Say MIT and U of Colorado

https://medicalxpress.com/news/2020-03-repurposing-drug-blood-clots-stopgap.html

Sample quote

Three hospitals in Massachusetts and Colorado are developing plans to test this approach in severely ill Covid-19 patients. The drug, a protein called tissue plasminogen activator (tPA), is commonly given to heart attack and stroke victims. The approach is based on emerging data from China and Italy that Covid-19 patients have a profound disorder of blood clotting that is contributing to their respiratory failure.

"If this were to work, which I hope it will, it could potentially be scaled up very quickly, because every hospital already has it in their pharmacy," says Michael Yaffe, a David H. Koch Professor of Science at MIT. "We don't have to make a new drug, and we don't have to do the same kind of testing that you would have to do

End quote

Just tried to buy hand soap for the office at Alberstons and they still don't have any. Big sections of aisles are cleaned out.

I dont understand it... why buy so much soap and TP.. are they using these products for something else
that is related to the Corona 19... and they were buying out TP before all this

While having been in the cardiac icu 3 times for severe PE-s and currently fighting a bad clot in one leg, I need to dig a hole and hide.

I am well stocked with lovinox? Might have 25 or better shots here and a ton of warfarin? I think id up my level a bit if I caught it, but I cant use the clot buster from a prior unrelated issue.

anyone self medicating would do well to write on their forearm with a sharpie the meds they are taking should the emt's show up and someone is unresponsive

In the ray of hope department....

The Wall Street Journal in their Opinion section has an article Wednesday by two doctors who lay out a case that COVID-19 is far less deadly than previous estimates, like Korea’s 0.6%.
They make the case that far more people have been infected and felt little or no symptoms.
They crunch numbers that show that the case fatality rate (CFR) might be even less than 0.1%

If this is true the epidemic will end sooner too,
as a large number of
“quietly recovered and now immune”
people will not be passing on the virus to others,
and further slowing an infection rate
that may also being reduced by springtime seasonal high humidity.

I can test my own inr at home and have next to little faith in our emt-s to the hospital director, If id listed to the "experts" id of been dead long ago and my wife would be bed ridden and have a feeding tube because our health care system is so "standardized" what may work for 99 people doesnt always work on the 100th and the system is ok with that.

Dog pile all you want for my comments but before this virus how many her posted over zero progress with issues with there health care provider? Many.

I visited my local Walmart today, and the paper products isle was completely bare of paper product, except it was now filled with single stack large Tupperware storage bins.

Guess Perception is still everything.

BE CAREFUL on take out or delivery... the actual food itself .... the wrapping of the product and the bag or box

Governor just told everyone non-essential to stay home so I guess me and my computer will be working from home for the time being....

https://www.yahoo.com/finance/news/uaw-confirms-2-members-died-141002938.html

I have been thinking this as well. I had a cold in late January that had me feeling really wiped out. I rarely ever get colds. It has been years since I had one like that.

Great advice... anyone on heart meds and blood thinners should carry a list with them. The er doc was so happy my wife kept a daily list when her a#$hole cardiologists would not answer the phone when she was in the er. They have protocols but will adjust if they know what and how much you are taking. He helped her find some new docs and things are pretty good now, getting off the meds slowly. Make the list, could save your life.

A local bank discovered a teller tested positive for COVO19 last Thursday after returning from a cruise, they only went public with the info today after being outed by social media. Employees were advised to keep silent or face repercussions.

For those interested, Sirius XM has channel 121 for virus tank 24/7 - open for deactivated radios too.

Any body know iif the ups pack and ship stores are open and taking items needing packing in order to ship? Does everything have to be boxed up when it comes in?

Ours are still open and considered part of essential businesses. I would call your local one to confirm.

My wife has a folder with all my medical records in it and I carry a list of all the meds I take and she
has a copy of them also... the folder came in handy when we were down in Texas for vacation(a couple
of months)... I had a stroke down there

The next things sorely needed are quick and cheap blood tests to find out who has antibodies in their blood that now makes them immune to COVID-19.

British companies are working to bring such tests to market.

Light , easy listening

https://spectator.us/half-uk-population-already-coronavirus/

as this dies down eventually, what are the odds of a severe upswing next flue season in the fall ?

Odds are better IMO that all thermometers sold after COVID will be required to be online models, so any outbreak can be spotted and tracked almost real time.

Sure would have saved a lot of time and likely lives with this pandemic.

I am all about personal privacy (long gone), but I don't think these new thermometers share any personal data other the approx location of the user, not sure.

I believe it best to not buy into the predictions and make any lifestyle changes and become unwittingly part of the data set.
Reading news that presents predictions about the virus dying down as the weather warms at this time is hopeful, yet not anything more than a guess. The southern hemisphere may likely be behind the "pandemic curve" because there simply are not as many world wide travelers that are residents of those continents. Until we see a substantial drop in new infections in the northern hemisphere can that hypotheses be proven. A lot about this virus is hypotheses right now other than it's contagious, it's rampant, it's deadly, more so for the infirm, there is no cure or vaccine. Other proven hypotheses deal with how it ts transmitted, etc. To make predictions on how virus behaves over a 12 month cycle may give hope, yet we should not get lulled into a false sense of security.

You do realize that just because you have a fever does not mean you have COVID-19, right? Most diseases and infections cause a fever, even the common cold. It just means your body is fighting an infection.

An item that is beginning to become a huge issue is the recovery rate is slow. Right now in the US reported are slightly less than 70k dx with cv19, with ~1,100 deaths, ~ 620 cured. There are a lot of people sick at home and in hospitals, a growing number needing respirators and the length of time a patient requires a respirator is up to 3 weeks. There will be more and more people dx and a growing number will need hospitalization and also respirators. These are the facts facing doctors. It's a tragedy that our elected and appointed officials and the press too often grasp and mold the reality of this pandemic to their need. I don't want rose colored glasses and expect facts and truth from those making the news and using the media to play their perversions.

Yes I do, and ANYBODY who has a fever right now, needs to be away from me.

Got any better early warning world wide better low cost reliable early warning suggestions?

I'm hoping this doesn't contravene the "no politics" rule. if a moderator perceive that it does, please feel free to remove it.

This is a surprising article from a Canadian publication that is generally quite supportive of communist China: Despite the opening paragraph, it doesn't really speak to politics directly, but as I stated above.....

https://www.macleans.ca/opinion/when-will-china-be-held-accountable-for-coronavirus/

I am not yet convinced the “Controlled Voluntary Infection”
described in the below article is a good idea,
but it also should not be dismissed out of hand....

https://thefederalist.com/2020/03/2...-could-turn-the-tide-of-the-wuhan-virus/

Or American Shingles is no big thing kinda of thinking?

I remember American Chicken pox parties well, I never attended, and never got Chicken Pox or Shingles.

Sample quote

Early evidence from Iceland, a country with a very strong organization for wide testing within the population, suggests that as many as 50 percent of infections are almost completely asymptomatic. Most of the rest are relatively minor. In fact, Iceland’s figures, 648 cases and two attributed deaths, give a death rate of 0.3 percent. As population testing becomes more widespread elsewhere in the world, we will find a greater and greater proportion of cases where infections have already occurred and caused only mild effects. In fact, as time goes on, this will become generally truer too, because most infections tend to decrease in virulence as an epidemic progresses.

End quote

From
https://spectator.us/deadly-coronavirus-still-far-clear-covid-19/

https://www.medpagetoday.com/infectiousdisease/covid19/85596

Sample quote

Evidence-Based Prevention

Aggressively identifying and treating people with vitamin D deficiency is one potential strategy to reduce the risk of COVID-19. As outlined in the BMJ review, regularly taking oral vitamin D3 mitigates infection, although the optimal oral dose is debatable. Bolus doses do not appear to provide benefit against infection, possibly through a dysregulation of vitamin D metabolism.

There may be a simple yet effective alternative. Since exposing the whole body to bright sunlight can provide long-lasting and rapid correction of deficiency, this may provide a critical boost to host immune defenses. Lacking definitive research, any risk of exposing the body to sunshine while sheltering in place is clearly outweighed by the risk of COVID-19.
End quote

Anyone desiring to supplement their vit d should know to take it with their meal containing the most fat. To get into ones system the fitamin needs to bond to fat cells.
It's sobering to think that the US at this time has the most reported infected with the malady.

The US is testing more, and some of the other countries are suppressing their numbers.

" Lacking definitive research, any risk of exposing the body to sunshine while sheltering in place is clearly outweighed by the risk of COVID-19."

That does not make a clear suggestion which is less risky IMO.

In that the risk of simply walking into the sunshine with not a person in sight, increases one's risk IMO at least an order of magnitude less then the risk of singing on one's balcony with all your neighbors accompanying at night without a mask in sight, and I have yet to hear any objections to that behavior, other then mine.

There is an IQ required to comprehend long term cause and effect.
https://worldpopulationreview.com/countries/average-iq-by-country/

"There is an IQ required to comprehend long term cause and effect"

Spit it out, we are screwed.

The Deaths will soon exceed the Dow Jones?

The best way I've heard it is

"For this virus to affect you, it must first FIND you... Hide from it, Stay inside!"

Therefore at about day 10 the south korea plot makes a turn for the better.
What occurred at about day 10 for usa?
Important to keep in mind the bottom index of the graph is not a calendar date, rather days from 100 case dx and is different for each country plotted.
While interesting its not scientific as each country determines their own criteria for if a person has the disease. I also know some areas are not reporting cases either by choice or lack of tests or testing facilities. It would be a shame for anyone to wantonly push reopening areas based on the data that is available at this time.

Here in the NYC area, there was a bit of good news earlier in the week. Based on modeling and more testing results, there was an expectation to see the number of cases in the city itself to double every two days. However, allegedly due to the increase of restrictive stay-at-home measures, the time spread turned out to be a little over 4 days. Still doubled though!

Its insane how much forceful denial there is out there about this situation. Why? What is there to gain by recklessly ignoring facts? No one gets a reward for blindly going down with a sinking ship.

i never attended any "parties" but got chicken pox as a kid. they were not FUN !
as to the vitamin d, i take a 10,000mg dose daily, prescribed by my one doc. have been doing that for years, as well as eat other prescribed vitamins that are supposedly better than the over the counter kind.
i also self inject b12.

anyone remember "Vitamin Flintheart" ?

Like the flu it will "find" us all until there's a vaccine. Cant hide from it forever. Then, as all the talking heads on the news channels are saying it will become a choice between possible death from the virus or possible death from starvation and homelessness. I feel slightly fortunate but I cant survive financially for years. I mean how many of us can. I'm lucky I just fixed up a rental house in a stable middle class neighborhood that I own free and clear but it would SUCK to have to hunker down in it forever and burn through the cash we saved for retirement and let our nice house go back to the city/state because we cant pay the property taxes. I know thats worst case but I've always lived but the motto, plan for the worst and hope for the best.

And when/if theres a vaccine, how long will that take to get into the arm of 350 million people? Years? Decades? One doctor said this could be a regular thing every 5-10 years. Some chinse person decides to eat another animal they shouldn't and it starts all over. Did you read what those fools eat? Bats, mongoose like creatures, deer pee pee's, cobra's, etc. One investigative show was showing a glass front retail store that was filled 4ft deep with turtles in a death struggle trying to get to the top of the pile. What savages.

"Its insane how much forceful denial there is out there about this situation. Why? What is there to gain by recklessly ignoring facts? No one gets a reward for blindly going down with a sinking ship."

Using the Titanic for the historical lesson, the "gain" is you get a less crowded lifeboat, while the others drown.

Did you see the dumb ass from Missouri that was under quarantine because his daughter was positive who took his other daughter to school for a father daughter dance? Now thanks to him the schools are closed.

"What savages."

You have never seen a mass production American chicken factory I assume?

Pertinent thought of the day?

The world is apparently mainly made up of followers.

Lately we are prodded into very frequent hand washing.

We are scolded to only cough into our elbows.

We are shamed into not shaking hands and that is to be replaced by elbow bumping.

When was the last time anybody expressively washed their elbow?

Um, no, The schools are closed because there are 285 confirmed positive tests from all over the metro area (as of this morning). They didn't all catch it from this one girl. The schools would be closed anyway regardless of what that one clown did.

Regardless of where it came from, everyone in the world has either already been or is going to be directly affected by this stupid virus because it clearly does not care if you are a tree hugging liberal, bible thumping conservative or rural Chinese peasant.

Those who chose to ignore facts do so at their own peril.