The researchers discovered that age is the strongest predictor of mortality, with risk climbing after age 55. Patients under the age of 50 with COVID-19 have only a 1 percent chance of dying. Those 85 and older have at least a 34 percent chance of dying if they get COVID-19. But another important predictor of COVID-19 mortality is the number of diagnoses a patient has based on the Charlson Comorbidity Index (CCI), a listing of 17 health conditions including diabetes, liver disease, and dementia. "What we found was that the number of these conditions [that a patient had], not one special one, counted," says Dr. King. However, the study also revealed that CCI conditions myocardial infarction (heart attack) and peripheral vascular disease come with their own elevated risk for dying from COVID-19.
The index calculates, for instance, that a 77-year-old man with five pre-existing conditions from the CCI (none of which included those two special risk factors) had a 21 percent risk of dying from the virus. If that same patient had a heart attack in the past however, their risk of dying increases to 29 percent.
Using this VACO index along with the 534,000 Medicare study in an earlier post in this thread that resulted in the www.predictcovidrisk.com website should give an idea of an individuals risk. At the predictcovidrisk.com site use 1.2% as the fatality risk of a white 65 year old female who has no co-morbidities.
