Originally Posted by MarkM
Originally Posted by DaveRS23

Close to 80k dead you say? What is the source of that number?

Truth is, we have no idea how many people have died from this virus. And when it comes to confusing information, here is the best reason to doubt the numbers being thrown around. This is Illinois' Director of Public Health on how Illinois classifies Coronavirus deaths. And remember that all the statistics that you see from the CDC, etc comes from the states themselves.

If you don't listen to this official response from Director Ezike, you don't really care about the truth because this is how the data on this virus is tabulated here in Illinois.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WEDjjl41xHU


That video is from April 23rd. I get why they played fast and lose with the criteria for counting Covid deaths - at the time the testing wasn't available so they errored on the side of caution. I'm curious if they're still using the same protocols for counting deaths now as I can get tested by driving through my local CVS. That and the fact the hospitals are now out of danger and we have breathing room to try and get accurate numbers.

This is going to sound cold, but total death counts are meaningless in crafting policy anyways. They're best used for emotional appeals. People need to come to grip with the fact that we can not quarantine long enough for this virus to go away. Civilization will collapse long before that point. The only thing that is going to burn it out is when it runs out of viable hosts through herd immunity by either natural anti-body production from previous infection or a vaccine. The area under the infection curve is NOT going to change in any meaningful way. The goal was always to draw it out to the point the peak doesn't poke above the total available resources to treat patients. Drawing this out any further will only serve to destroy the economy to no benefit - a vaccine is simply too far away.

The numbers to keep tabs on are hospitalization rates and available beds and vents. Overwhelm that and the death rate spikes. The best way forward right now is incremental reopening while monitoring hospitalization rate closely while at the same time letting high risk groups to continue to quarantine.


In response to your question as to whether Illinois is still using the methods outlined in the link I'll make a couple of points. First Dr. Ezike is still at her post. Second, Governor Pritzker has doubled down repeatedly on his controversial lock down of the state. Given those 2 things, there doesn't seem to be much incentive to loosen their definition of a Corona death.

And finally, let's look at a couple of graphs that Illinois has released. The first graph in the first press release shows that Corona death averages have been fairly level. If there has been a substantial change in the accounting method, it should be reflected in the averages. There is no sudden change in the averages.

https://www2.illinois.gov/dceo/Media/PressReleases/Pages/PR20200423.aspx

This second link has the current map of Illinois' Corona deaths. Of interest is that many counties (including ours) have no deaths, while many more show very few deaths. And that is despite the all-inclusive Corona death tabulations done by the Illinois Dept. of Public Health.

https://www.dph.illinois.gov/topics-services/diseases-and-conditions/diseases-a-z-list/coronavirus

There is nothing to indicate there has been any change in accounting methods while there does seem to be evidence that no change has occurred.

I do agree with you that the point is now is to not overextend the hospitals and such at any given time and place. But the lock-downs should have been much more targeted. Not one size fits all. A bit of over reaction in areas that were hard hit would not be a bad thing. But there are large swaths of rural America that are seeing far more damage from the shut down than they would from the virus alone.

So, I think that I agree with most of your post with the correction that rural areas without much infection should never have been locked-down and should be re-opened ... NOW ... not incrementally.


Master, again and still