Be careful comparing beginning numbers to ending numbers. The next few weeks will tell the story.

Why are people worried?

Worst case, 2/3rds are infected, call it 200 million. 3.4% die (china initial rate) -> 6.8 million dead

good case? 100 million infected, death rate of 0.6% (from south korea) -> 600,000 dead

An absolute best case would be matching the yearly flu totals.