It makes total sense. Claim frequency and severity has plummeted. I can't disclose our company's result, but we're the #3 carrier in the US, and I can tell you that claim volume relative to policies in force is historically low. Money is still coming in, but not much is going out.

The most valuable customer an insurer has is a current customer. Refunding premiums as a goodwill gesture will absolutely generate goodwill and reduce the chances of an existing customer shopping around. Also, the rates we pay are based on underwriting data that cannot and did not account for the current situation. As a result, everyone is overpaying a bit.

One other thing...the carriers who were already very profitable (most notably, my employer) are very likely going to cut rates in the next few months in an attempt to take business away from the competition. State Farm is terrified right now, as they have been bleeding market share for years, and they are terrible at underwriting, but the are going to have to give premium refunds anyway, and they know that even though they are going to do it, Geico and us are going to come after their customers harder than ever, and they can't stop it.