5 reasons not to panic over COVID-19
#2747828
02/29/20 06:59 PM
02/29/20 06:59 PM
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Sample quote 1. The number of cases in China is already falling. Where once the graph of coronavirus cases in China showed an exponential climb, it has now leveled off substantially. Just three weeks ago, China was recording more than 3,000 new cases per day. Officials are now consistently reporting fewer than five hundred, with the number still dropping. Seeing much-improved conditions on the ground, big companies like Starbucks and Apple in China are resuming business activities. The latest (Feb. 28th) World Health Organization (WHO) situation report revealed just 318 new cases in China in the previous 24 hours. 2. The vast majority of cases are mild, and the death rate is likely lower than reported. A large study of 72,000 confirmed COVID-19 patients in China found that 81% of cases were mild, another 14% were severe (characterized by difficulty breathing), and 5% were critical. Overall, the death rate was 2.3 percent. More recently, the WHO reported a death rate of 3.8% in China, but noted that it is rapidly falling as standards of care quickly improve. Early on, the city of Wuhan (where the disease originated) was inundated with patients and hospitals could not provide proper care due to overwhelming demand. For Chinese patients whose symptoms started after February 1st, the death rate is just 0.7 percent. (For comparison, the U.S. death rate from 2019-20's annual flu oubtreak is between .06 percent to 0.1 percent. SARS a similar virus to COVID-19, had a death rate of 9.6 percent.) The death rate could be even lower, as very mild cases of COVID-19 that resemble a common cold likely go unreported. 3. Only one out of every 1,000 people in Hubei Province has contracted the coronavirus. There have been 65,914 confirmed cases of COVID-19 in China's Hubei Province, where the outbreak began in December. That sounds like a lot, but keep in mind that the population of Hubei is 59,170,000. The province is slightly smaller than Nebraska, but with thirty times as many inhabitants. With this sort of population density, it's a positive sign that just .11% (roughly 1 in 1000) of the population has caught COVID-19. Even if there were 53,000 unreported cases, that would mean only one out of every 500 people in Hubei caught the virus. Given the population density in most other countries is significantly lower than in China, we can expect that the coronavirus will have a much harder time spreading in much of the world. 4. There have been no reported deaths in young children. Though the outbreak has endured for more than nine weeks, there still have been no fatalities in children under the age of nine, with almost all infected simply experiencing cold-like symptoms. Moreover, only 2.4% of cases are in individuals under the age of 18. Kids and teenagers have been surprisingly resistant to the virus. The death rate for people aged 10 to 39 currently stands at just 0.2 percent. Those genuinely at risk from COVID-19 are the elderly. People aged 80 and up have a 14.8% to 21.9% chance of dying if infected. 5. The world already survived another pandemic just ten years ago. Remember H1N1, more commonly known as Swine Flu? This was the most recent pandemic (besides HIV/AIDS, which is still considered a pandemic). It began in early 2009 and lasted through late 2010. Between April 2009 and April 2010, there were approximately 60.8 million cases, 274,304 hospitalizations, and 12,469 deaths in the United States alone! Globally, it likely infected between 700 million and 1.4 billion people, resulting in 150,000 to 575,000 fatalities. While this loss of life was tragic, more than a decade later, many scarcely remember Swine Flu. The same will hopefully happen with COVID-19. End quote from https://www.realclearscience.com/bl...anic_about_the_covid-19_coronavirus.html
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Re: 5 reasons not to panic over COVID-19
[Re: 360view]
#2747830
02/29/20 07:05 PM
02/29/20 07:05 PM
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Also.... A robust research effort is currently under way to develop a vaccine against Covid-19.10 We anticipate that the first candidates will enter phase 1 trials by early spring. Therapy currently consists of supportive care while a variety of investigational approaches are being explored.11 Among these are the antiviral medication lopinavir–ritonavir, interferon-1β, the RNA polymerase inhibitor remdesivir, chloroquine, and a variety of traditional Chinese medicine products.11 Once available, intravenous hyperimmune globulin from recovered persons and monoclonal antibodies may be attractive candidates to study in early intervention. End quote from https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMe2002387?query=RP
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Re: 5 reasons not to panic over COVID-19
[Re: 360view]
#2747834
02/29/20 07:20 PM
02/29/20 07:20 PM
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Joined: Dec 2003
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jcc
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Sample quote 1. The number of cases in China is already falling. Where once the graph of coronavirus cases in China showed an exponential climb, it has now leveled off substantially. Just three weeks ago, China was recording more than 3,000 new cases per day. Officials are now consistently reporting fewer than five hundred, with the number still dropping. Seeing much-improved conditions on the ground, big companies like Starbucks and Apple in China are resuming business activities. The latest (Feb. 28th) World Health Organization (WHO) situation report revealed just 318 new cases in China in the previous 24 hours. Response:China reduced their "exponential" climb by mainly it appears by quarantining entire cities and shutting down entire companies, they are an authoritarian state,, our citizens likely will not accept that solution, at least some
2. The vast majority of cases are mild, and the death rate is likely lower than reported. A large study of 72,000 confirmed COVID-19 patients in China found that 81% of cases were mild, another 14% were severe (characterized by difficulty breathing), and 5% were critical. Overall, the death rate was 2.3 percent. More recently, the WHO reported a death rate of 3.8% in China, but noted that it is rapidly falling as standards of care quickly improve. Early on, the city of Wuhan (where the disease originated) was inundated with patients and hospitals could not provide proper care due to overwhelming demand. For Chinese patients whose symptoms started after February 1st, the death rate is just 0.7 percent. (For comparison, the U.S. death rate from 2019-20's annual flu oubtreak is between .06 percent to 0.1 percent. SARS a similar virus to COVID-19, had a death rate of 9.6 percent.) The death rate could be even lower, as very mild cases of COVID-19 that resemble a common cold likely go unreported. Response: The mild cases are the problem, most here will not self report/quarantine/etc for many reasons ( read other thread on public coughers), and just spread the disease. I don't know how many feel, but killing off our elders ought to be something more then just a statistic. 3. Only one out of every 1,000 people in Hubei Province has contracted the coronavirus. There have been 65,914 confirmed cases of COVID-19 in China's Hubei Province, where the outbreak began in December. That sounds like a lot, but keep in mind that the population of Hubei is 59,170,000. The province is slightly smaller than Nebraska, but with thirty times as many inhabitants. With this sort of population density, it's a positive sign that just .11% (roughly 1 in 1000) of the population has caught COVID-19. Even if there were 53,000 unreported cases, that would mean only one out of every 500 people in Hubei caught the virus. Given the population density in most other countries is significantly lower than in China, we can expect that the coronavirus will have a much harder time spreading in much of the world. See response in #1 4. There have been no reported deaths in young children. Though the outbreak has endured for more than nine weeks, there still have been no fatalities in children under the age of nine, with almost all infected simply experiencing cold-like symptoms. Moreover, only 2.4% of cases are in individuals under the age of 18. Kids and teenagers have been surprisingly resistant to the virus. The death rate for people aged 10 to 39 currently stands at just 0.2 percent. Those genuinely at risk from COVID-19 are the elderly. People aged 80 and up have a 14.8% to 21.9% chance of dying if infected. Response: OK kids should not panic 5. The world already survived another pandemic just ten years ago. Remember H1N1, more commonly known as Swine Flu? This was the most recent pandemic (besides HIV/AIDS, which is still considered a pandemic). It began in early 2009 and lasted through late 2010. Between April 2009 and April 2010, there were approximately 60.8 million cases, 274,304 hospitalizations, and 12,469 deaths in the United States alone! Globally, it likely infected between 700 million and 1.4 billion people, resulting in 150,000 to 575,000 fatalities. While this loss of life was tragic, more than a decade later, many scarcely remember Swine Flu. The same will hopefully happen with COVID-19. Response: "hopefully"? Is that scientific? End quote from https://www.realclearscience.com/bl...anic_about_the_covid-19_coronavirus.html
Reality check, that half the population is smarter then 50% of the people and it's a constantly contested fact.
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Re: 5 reasons not to panic over COVID-19
[Re: jcc]
#2747842
02/29/20 07:43 PM
02/29/20 07:43 PM
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CMcAllister
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People dying in backwards, third world countries is really not relevant to normal people in the USA. The difference in health, nutrition, prevention and healthcare is worlds apart. China, Iran, Africa, etc.? Not even close. Control the borders and we will be fine.
There have always been and still are many things much more likely to kill you when you walk out your door than this. How many people die from the flu every winter without plunging the nation into a panic? I just take normal precautions - avoid crowds, wash your hands and use a hand sanitizer, plenty of fluids and D3,
“You never want a serious crisis to go to waste. And what I mean by that is an opportunity to do things that you think you could not do before.”
― Rahm Emanuel
You have to consider the agenda of the people who are telling us the sky is falling. There are people everywhere who will create or exploit a crisis in order to elevate themselves by claiming to know all about how to fix it as only they are able.
Last edited by CMcAllister; 02/29/20 07:46 PM.
If the results don't match the theory, change the theory.
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Re: 5 reasons not to panic over COVID-19
[Re: CMcAllister]
#2747850
02/29/20 07:57 PM
02/29/20 07:57 PM
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Rhinodart
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People dying in backwards, third world countries is really not relevant to normal people in the USA. The difference in health, nutrition, prevention and healthcare is worlds apart. China, Iran, Africa, etc.? Not even close. Control the borders and we will be fine.
There have always been and still are many things much more likely to kill you when you walk out your door than this. How many people die from the flu every winter without plunging the nation into a panic? I just take normal precautions - avoid crowds, wash your hands and use a hand sanitizer, plenty of fluids and D3,
“You never want a serious crisis to go to waste. And what I mean by that is an opportunity to do things that you think you could not do before.”
― Rahm Emanuel
You have to consider the agenda of the people who are telling us the sky is falling. There are people everywhere who will create or exploit a crisis in order to elevate themselves by claiming to know all about how to fix it as only they are able. THIS!
The funny thing about science is that if you change one miniscule parameter you change the entire outcome to the way you want it.
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Re: 5 reasons not to panic over COVID-19
[Re: Rhinodart]
#2747953
03/01/20 09:43 AM
03/01/20 09:43 AM
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steve70
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Another example of the media creating news instead of reporting facts. There's over 18000 flu deaths this season in the US and it doesn't make the news. How many worldwide?
1970 Challenger T/A 4 speed
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Re: 5 reasons not to panic over COVID-19
[Re: steve70]
#2747954
03/01/20 10:01 AM
03/01/20 10:01 AM
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BIGGERED
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Another example of the media creating news instead of reporting facts. There's over 18000 flu deaths this season in the US and it doesn't make the news. How many worldwide? I’ll never understand the anti media trend. They report on things that happen out there and then you decide. I hear Updates of numbers of flu cases weekly and I tend to avoid the news. TY Red
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Re: 5 reasons not to panic over COVID-19
[Re: 360view]
#2747971
03/01/20 11:00 AM
03/01/20 11:00 AM
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Canadian viewpoint: https://www.theglobeandmail.com/opi...gainst-the-coronavirus-pandemic-of-fear/Sample quote Canada is taking the risk more seriously because of the fact that, in 2003, Toronto was one of the main hot spots in the SARS epidemic. Poor communication and a lack of resources and proper protocols led to the spread of the virus and contributed to the deaths of 44 people. That prompted Ottawa to create the Public Health Agency of Canada, with 2,400 employees and its own laboratory facilities. One of the agency’s chief roles is to co-ordinate the response to pandemics, test for new cases and enforce protocols that can limit the spread of a virus. End quote
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Re: 5 reasons not to panic over COVID-19
[Re: 360view]
#2747976
03/01/20 11:06 AM
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Israeli efforts: https://nypost.com/2020/02/28/israeli-scientists-claim-to-be-weeks-away-from-coronavirus-vaccine/Sample quote The researchers discovered that the poultry coronavirus is very similar genetically to the human one — and that it uses the same infection method, Katz said. “All we need to do is adjust the system to the new sequence,” he said. “We are in the middle of this process, and hopefully in a few weeks we will have the vaccine in our hands. Yes, in a few weeks, if it all works, we would have a vaccine to prevent coronavirus.” The oral vaccine will have to go through a regulatory process, including clinical trials, he noted. End quote
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Re: 5 reasons not to panic over COVID-19
[Re: BIGGERED]
#2748021
03/01/20 02:18 PM
03/01/20 02:18 PM
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Another example of the media creating news instead of reporting facts. There's over 18000 flu deaths this season in the US and it doesn't make the news. How many worldwide? I’ll never understand the anti media trend. They report on things that happen out there and then you decide. I hear Updates of numbers of flu cases weekly and I tend to avoid the news. TY Red Hey, The Titanic was unsinkable, nobody needed to panic, the lifeboats launched half full, the sky wasn't falling.
Reality check, that half the population is smarter then 50% of the people and it's a constantly contested fact.
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Re: 5 reasons not to panic over COVID-19
[Re: 360view]
#2748405
03/02/20 07:59 PM
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DARPA effort to quickly produce antibodies https://www.wired.com/story/darpa-cranks-up-antibody-research-to-stall-coronavirus/Sample quote The Pentagon’s Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency, or Darpa, launched its Pandemic Prevention Platform program two years ago with the goal of isolating and reproducing antibodies to deadly new viruses within 60 days. It enlisted researchers at Duke and Vanderbilt medical schools, as well as AbCellera and pharmaceutical giant AstraZeneca. In preparation for an outbreak like the coronavirus now gripping China, scientists with the program made test runs using viruses responsible for severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) and Middle East respiratory syndrome (MERS). Both are members of the coronavirus family and closely related to Covid-19. End quote
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Re: 5 reasons not to panic over COVID-19
[Re: IMGTX]
#2748538
03/03/20 11:29 AM
03/03/20 11:29 AM
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jcc
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In my life I have survived the Multiple Swine flu scares, Bird Flu Scares, Legion-ares disease scare (before they knew the cause, everyone panicked) Eboli, Ecoli, Influenza - A Influenza - B Eating at Chipotle. AIDS/HIV
Nothing gets the money flowing like a good scare. Research Scientists, Medical Professionals, and Politicians all know this all too well. So I too lazy to do the research/math, anybody want to take shot at how many deaths are in the above list, that we all escaped?
Reality check, that half the population is smarter then 50% of the people and it's a constantly contested fact.
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Re: 5 reasons not to panic over COVID-19
[Re: 360view]
#2748831
03/04/20 08:30 AM
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Details for medical caregivers of who gets it: https://www.statnews.com/2020/03/03...coronavirus-risk-by-demographic-factors/Interesting speculation: Begin quote One intriguing explanation for the apparent resilience of youth: in regions near Hubei province, young children seem especially likely to be exposed to other coronaviruses, scientists in China reported in 2018. That might have given them at least partial immunity to this one. End quote Just like the non fatal “cowpox” virus could protect milkmaids in the 1700’s from the 30% fatal smallpox virus, it might now be that there is a non fatal coronavirus going around as a “common cold” disease that could protect men from the 2.8% fatal COVID-19. There is a coronavirus that effects chickens and the Israelis already have an oral vaccine pill for chickens that they are quickly trying to adapt for humans.
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Re: 5 reasons not to panic over COVID-19
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#2748837
03/04/20 09:06 AM
03/04/20 09:06 AM
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Mr T2U
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YES there is a lot of over hype about this. and in my opinion i will try to avoid this if i can thru common sense methods and live my life as planned.
there is some basis to be concerned. The World Health Organization announced on Tuesday that the global death rate of the disease caused by the new coronavirus was 3.4%.
the death rate of regular flu is 0.1%
perception is 90% of reality
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Re: 5 reasons not to panic over COVID-19
[Re: Mr T2U]
#2748909
03/04/20 12:29 PM
03/04/20 12:29 PM
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YES there is a lot of over hype about this. and in my opinion i will try to avoid this if i can thru common sense methods and live my life as planned.
there is some basis to be concerned. The World Health Organization announced on Tuesday that the global death rate of the disease caused by the new coronavirus was 3.4%.
the death rate of regular flu is 0.1% You should have kept typing to give people an accurate, full picture of that statement... The figure does not include all mild cases that do not require medical attention and is skewed by Wuhan, where the death rate is several times higher than elsewhere in China. Researchers expect the rate may be reduced as they discover a fuller picture of who has been infected. The death rate could turn out to be below 1 percent, according to Dr. Anthony Fauci and Dr. Clifford Lane of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, and Dr. Robert Redfield, director of the CDC. Dr. Margaret Harris, a W.HO. spokeswoman, said the figure was a crudely calculated snapshot of the disease's death rate globally, and was expected to change over time and vary from place to place.
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Re: 5 reasons not to panic over COVID-19
[Re: 360view]
#2749008
03/04/20 06:10 PM
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Death rate from COVID-19 probably 0.8% about the same as the 1918 Influenza. The average for yearly influenza in the USA is 0.16% Sample quote This is where the Diamond Princess data provides important insight. Of the 3,711 people on board, at least 705 have tested positive for the virus (which, considering the confines, conditions, and how contagious this virus appears to be, is surprisingly low). Of those, more than half are asymptomatic, while very few asymptomatic people were detected in China. This alone suggests a halving of the virus’s true fatality rate. On the Diamond Princess, six deaths have occurred among the passengers, constituting a case fatality rate of 0.85 percent. Unlike the data from China and elsewhere, where sorting out why a patient died is extremely difficult, we can assume that these are excess fatalities—they wouldn’t have occurred but for SARS-CoV-2. The most important insight is that all six fatalities occurred in patients who are more than 70 years old. Not a single Diamond Princess patient under age 70 has died. If the numbers from reports out of China had held, the expected number of deaths in those under 70 should have been around four. End quote From https://slate.com/technology/2020/03/coronavirus-mortality-rate-lower-than-we-think.html
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Re: 5 reasons not to panic over COVID-19
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#2749047
03/04/20 08:34 PM
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davesmopars
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My Freind in Turkey said on the news there, over 10,000 dead in China
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Re: 5 reasons not to panic over COVID-19
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#2749167
03/05/20 07:51 AM
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U Texas developed a vaccine by 2016 but could not get funds to do the final large scale test: https://www.nbcnews.com/health/heal...cine-years-ago-then-money-dried-n1150091Sample quote Instead, the SARS vaccine that Hotez's team created in collaboration with scientists at the University of Texas Medical Branch at Galveston is sitting in a freezer, no closer to commercial production than it was four years ago. "We could have had this ready to go and been testing the vaccine's efficacy at the start of this new outbreak in China," said Hotez, who believes the vaccine could provide cross-protection against the new coronavirus, which causes a respiratory disease known as COVID-19. End quote
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