5 reasons not to panic over COVID-19

Sample quote

1. The number of cases in China is already falling. Where once the graph of coronavirus cases in China showed an exponential climb, it has now leveled off substantially. Just three weeks ago, China was recording more than 3,000 new cases per day. Officials are now consistently reporting fewer than five hundred, with the number still dropping. Seeing much-improved conditions on the ground, big companies like Starbucks and Apple in China are resuming business activities. The latest (Feb. 28th) World Health Organization (WHO) situation report revealed just 318 new cases in China in the previous 24 hours.

Response:China reduced their "exponential" climb by mainly it appears by quarantining entire cities and shutting down entire companies, they are an authoritarian state,, our citizens likely will not accept that solution, at least some


2. The vast majority of cases are mild, and the death rate is likely lower than reported. A large study of 72,000 confirmed COVID-19 patients in China found that 81% of cases were mild, another 14% were severe (characterized by difficulty breathing), and 5% were critical. Overall, the death rate was 2.3 percent. More recently, the WHO reported a death rate of 3.8% in China, but noted that it is rapidly falling as standards of care quickly improve. Early on, the city of Wuhan (where the disease originated) was inundated with patients and hospitals could not provide proper care due to overwhelming demand. For Chinese patients whose symptoms started after February 1st, the death rate is just 0.7 percent. (For comparison, the U.S. death rate from 2019-20's annual flu oubtreak is between .06 percent to 0.1 percent. SARS a similar virus to COVID-19, had a death rate of 9.6 percent.) The death rate could be even lower, as very mild cases of COVID-19 that resemble a common cold likely go unreported.

Response: The mild cases are the problem, most here will not self report/quarantine/etc for many reasons ( read other thread on public coughers), and just spread the disease. I don't know how many feel, but killing off our elders ought to be something more then just a statistic.

3. Only one out of every 1,000 people in Hubei Province has contracted the coronavirus. There have been 65,914 confirmed cases of COVID-19 in China's Hubei Province, where the outbreak began in December. That sounds like a lot, but keep in mind that the population of Hubei is 59,170,000. The province is slightly smaller than Nebraska, but with thirty times as many inhabitants. With this sort of population density, it's a positive sign that just .11% (roughly 1 in 1000) of the population has caught COVID-19. Even if there were 53,000 unreported cases, that would mean only one out of every 500 people in Hubei caught the virus. Given the population density in most other countries is significantly lower than in China, we can expect that the coronavirus will have a much harder time spreading in much of the world.

See response in #1

4. There have been no reported deaths in young children. Though the outbreak has endured for more than nine weeks, there still have been no fatalities in children under the age of nine, with almost all infected simply experiencing cold-like symptoms. Moreover, only 2.4% of cases are in individuals under the age of 18. Kids and teenagers have been surprisingly resistant to the virus.

The death rate for people aged 10 to 39 currently stands at just 0.2 percent. Those genuinely at risk from COVID-19 are the elderly. People aged 80 and up have a 14.8% to 21.9% chance of dying if infected.

Response: OK kids should not panic

5. The world already survived another pandemic just ten years ago. Remember H1N1, more commonly known as Swine Flu? This was the most recent pandemic (besides HIV/AIDS, which is still considered a pandemic). It began in early 2009 and lasted through late 2010. Between April 2009 and April 2010, there were approximately 60.8 million cases, 274,304 hospitalizations, and 12,469 deaths in the United States alone! Globally, it likely infected between 700 million and 1.4 billion people, resulting in 150,000 to 575,000 fatalities. While this loss of life was tragic, more than a decade later, many scarcely remember Swine Flu. The same will hopefully happen with COVID-19.

Response: "hopefully"? Is that scientific?

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https://www.realclearscience.com/bl...anic_about_the_covid-19_coronavirus.html

People dying in backwards, third world countries is really not relevant to normal people in the USA. The difference in health, nutrition, prevention and healthcare is worlds apart. China, Iran, Africa, etc.? Not even close. Control the borders and we will be fine.

There have always been and still are many things much more likely to kill you when you walk out your door than this. How many people die from the flu every winter without plunging the nation into a panic? I just take normal precautions - avoid crowds, wash your hands and use a hand sanitizer, plenty of fluids and D3,


“You never want a serious crisis to go to waste. And what I mean by that is an opportunity to do things that you think you could not do before.”

― Rahm Emanuel

You have to consider the agenda of the people who are telling us the sky is falling. There are people everywhere who will create or exploit a crisis in order to elevate themselves by claiming to know all about how to fix it as only they are able.

Another example of the media creating news instead of reporting facts. There's over 18000 flu deaths this season in the US and it doesn't make the news. How many worldwide?

I’ll never understand the anti media trend. They report on things that happen out there and then you decide. I hear Updates of numbers of flu cases weekly and I tend to avoid the news.

TY
Red

In my life I have survived the Multiple
Swine flu scares,
Bird Flu Scares,
Legion-ares disease scare (before they knew the cause, everyone panicked)
Eboli,
Ecoli,
Influenza - A
Influenza - B
Eating at Chipotle.
AIDS/HIV

Nothing gets the money flowing like a good scare. Research Scientists, Medical Professionals, and Politicians all know this all too well.

YES there is a lot of over hype about this.
and in my opinion i will try to avoid this if i can thru common sense methods and live my life as planned.

there is some basis to be concerned.
The World Health Organization announced on Tuesday that the global death rate of the disease caused by the new coronavirus was 3.4%.

the death rate of regular flu is 0.1%

You never know the rate if you dont test. You still need to be hospitalized at this point to qualify for the test. So many walking around with mild cases will go to old folks homes and kill off everyone. That is why our potential for mass infection exists. The CDC response to this has been pathetic, and DT downplaying it to keep the market propped up is beyond irresponsible. China's mass quarantine is why it is slowing down there and may be why it wont here. And love the disingenuous "masks wont help you but our doctors need them" comments. In Shanghai and Hunan there is a mandatory mask policy.

The possible good news is today two strains of virus were identified and one is linked to severe illness, one to mild illness. Hope the mild variant likes us better.

People dying in backwards, third world countries is really not relevant to normal people in the USA. The difference in health, nutrition, prevention and healthcare is worlds apart. China, Iran, Africa, etc.? Not even close. Control the borders and we will be fine.

There have always been and still are many things much more likely to kill you when you walk out your door than this. How many people die from the flu every winter without plunging the nation into a panic? I just take normal precautions - avoid crowds, wash your hands and use a hand sanitizer, plenty of fluids and D3,


“You never want a serious crisis to go to waste. And what I mean by that is an opportunity to do things that you think you could not do before.”

― Rahm Emanuel

You have to consider the agenda of the people who are telling us the sky is falling. There are people everywhere who will create or exploit a crisis in order to elevate themselves by claiming to know all about how to fix it as only they are able.

Warning, "The Emperor has no clothes" is approaching forbidden territory.

And the death rate accuracy only effects the dead.

You sound desperate for a game-changer.

With continued poor government action we may be looking at an Italy situation shortly. Since Korea may be a model and has tested close to 200000 people with 50 deaths, Italy with 300 deaths may have up to 50,000 cases. With flights to Italy still not restricted, we will have additional tourists infecting unaffected regions (mine just got it and kids at sons school now exposed). WE need to try to delay until June/July when warmer months may hinder the spread as Singapore and Malaysia (hot places) are faring better. We dont want this. However, as a health professional and realist with study of this things epidemiology, we may have a rough go without better management.

Our leader is foolishly managing this situation. Where are those millions of "beautiful" tests. And god forbid a cruise ship with American citizens docks and doubles his numbers???

I live in Italy...schools are closed, people are requested to stay home and work from home, restaurants and cinemas closed, no sports, no outside activities...no museums and churches, no funerals. Shopping centers closed on week ends. I live near the center of the epidemy, about 30 miles, but in my town just 3 persons affected. there are about 100 deaths a day, with 1000 new persons affected. Most of the deaths are old persons with serious deseases, not connected with the virus. I was planning to be in the US for the Spring Fling, but it would be crazy for me to leave now.
Trouble is that while the virus was confined in northern Italy, some idiots decided to reach the south Italy, so now whole Italy is infected.
To tell the truth, there are so many cases reported because our health service is making thousands and thousands of tests, so its obvious that there are many positives. In most other countries, US, Germany, France and so on, there are very few tests done, so positives are few. Many deaths have been attributed to pneumonia, while Corona was probably the culprit.
Things are not easy for us, but we will survive this problem.

I live in Italy...schools are closed, people are requested to stay home and work from home, restaurants and cinemas closed, no sports, no outside activities...no museums and churches, no funerals. Shopping centers closed on week ends. I live near the center of the epidemy, about 30 miles, but in my town just 3 persons affected. there are about 100 deaths a day, with 1000 new persons affected. Most of the deaths are old persons with serious deseases, not connected with the virus. I was planning to be in the US for the Spring Fling, but it would be crazy for me to leave now.
Trouble is that while the virus was confined in northern Italy, some idiots decided to reach the south Italy, so now whole Italy is infected.
To tell the truth, there are so many cases reported because our health service is making thousands and thousands of tests, so its obvious that there are many positives. In most other countries, US, Germany, France and so on, there are very few tests done, so positives are few. Many deaths have been attributed to pneumonia, while Corona was probably the culprit.
Things are not easy for us, but we will survive this problem.

7 anti-worry techniques

https://medicalxpress.com/news/2020-03-science-based-strategies-cope-coronavirus-anxiety.html

People here think this cant and wont happen in the good old USA so they are going about their business. Unfortunately tough love may be coming soon unless we can delay until warmer months.

I'm in the tech end of the concert/entertainment industry, cancellation/business wise, we are getting hammered.

In the big picture health wise, that's small potatoes, but it will leave a mark.

What really sucks about that is you are losing family income. We had tickets to Ozzy in Des Moinse but he canceled due to his own health problems.

Knowing that transmission was initiated on Jan 15 allows us to estimate the total number of infections that exist in this cluster today. Our preliminary analysis puts this at 570 with an 90% uncertainty interval of between 80 and 1500 infections.

Does he still eat Bats :-) ?

The light remained Red.

:facepalm:

That does sound like a reasonable idea. In Italy they're saying to keep at least 1m between people whenever they're in public, so restaurants are rearranging their tables to accommodate it.

Apparently a cough can spray up to 2m in distance, then fall to the floor, so enforcing at least some distance won't hurt at all.

Pittsburgh St Patrick’s Day parade just canceled. I think they said it averages 350,000 spectators. A local bar owner said he sells one months worth of booze during that parade.

In Italy today they closed all shops, save for food and pharmacy. About 900 deaths, around 10.000 infected. I am wondering how things will work in the USA. We have free health care, and if somebody is ill, social care will pay his salary. So, as soon as someone feels bad, goes to the hospital and he is checked for free. If positive, he gets a room, assistance, and medical care. His salary is paid by the social care. What about the US?

:laughs in freedom:

Honest answer is that people will just go to work if they're sick. Most places (especially service type jobs), either don't have sick days, or have very few. Unless they've saved up a nest egg while working at minimum wage (ha!), they won't be able to afford to not work.

They won't go to the hospital until they're on deaths door because of their $10k deductibles, if they even have insurance.

A lot of states have "at-will" employment, which means you can be fired for any reason at any time, including not showing up if you're sick. They really can't afford to lose their job, so again, they'll just come in when they're sick.


About three weeks ago I probably had the flu (my daughter tested positive for influenza-A a few days ago), but luckily I work remotely from home anyways, so I was able to trudge along from home, taking a nap at lunch and again after work. We do have some savings, but I still couldn't really afford to miss the hours :-/

Maybe I should have used our actual $13.5k deductible instead?

I'm pretty sure no one has been fired yet, but this ride is just starting. It will get messy.

Maybe I should have used our actual $13.5k deductible instead?

I'm pretty sure no one has been fired yet, but this ride is just starting. It will get messy.

Thanks to the UnAffordable Care Act... Health insurance has tripled in 10 years it's already a mess...

I am scared, and wonder how long before a member here gets sick from it?
I live in the center of Houston !!!! almost 4 million people in a high density area. Time to lock and load.

You are desperate for a change....I get it.

Slowing the disease requires asking people to isolate themselves and, in most cases, stop working. Most of the world cannot shelter in place for long without income. When people are asked to survive alone—without the cultural, social, and financial inputs that typically keep us alive—new ways of attending to basic needs become immediately necessary. “For people who can’t afford time off work, we absolutely need to come up with out-of-the-box solutions right now,” Ko says.

Among them is the idea that everyone receive cash, immediately. People need to feel able to skip work and still make rent and feed their family. They need cash without strings attached, and they need it now, not via a complex omnibus economic stimulus package next month. With each day that such bills are debated by skeptical senators, people will continue to go into their communities, out of a need to work, spreading the disease simply because they have no other choice.

Planning for emergency cash transfers is underway in Hong Kong, where permanent residents are to receive the equivalent of $1,282 later this year, in an effort to keep both the economy and people alive.* In response to a month of nationwide school closures in Japan, the government is paying out $80 per worker per day to help cover child care or the costs of staying home to parent. Other government payments could be conditional on taking sick leave—a sort of emergency national sick-leave policy, whereby your employer might simply have to verify that you did indeed miss work for two weeks. Or, as with President George W. Bush’s $152 billion economic-stimulus bill in 2008, people could simply get a check in the mail.

In Italy today they closed all shops, save for food and pharmacy. About 900 deaths, around 10.000 infected. I am wondering how things will work in the USA. We have free health care, and if somebody is ill, social care will pay his salary. So, as soon as someone feels bad, goes to the hospital and he is checked for free. If positive, he gets a room, assistance, and medical care. His salary is paid by the social care. What about the US?

I am scared, and wonder how long before a member here gets sick from it?
I live in the center of Houston !!!! almost 4 million people in a high density area. Time to lock and load.

You are desperate for a change....I get it.

Only if "change" means more competence, integrity, less drama, more empathy, wider vision, less self promotion, more stability, etc

And "desperate" being defined as in lieu of ANYTHING but the status quo.

:fingergunwink:

Sorry but in light of events in the past couple years I don't see anything or anyone on the horizon that has any of those qualities.

There was nothing political in my post.

Only if "change" means more competence, integrity, less drama, more empathy, wider vision, less self promotion, more stability, etc

And "desperate" being defined as in lieu of ANYTHING but the status quo.

Maybe I should have used our actual $13.5k deductible instead?

I'm pretty sure no one has been fired yet, but this ride is just starting. It will get messy.

I laugh at you because you are not going to get your way, at least for awhile...LOL! Gotta bring a better game than that garbage!

Can't find the high road I see, so nothing does indeed "change".

Strange isn't it, anything can be said if it follows a certain side, but the second a different view is shared, all we hear is"how dare you", "shut it Down", "it isn't fair", etc, etc.

My latest panic after watching my stocks crater and watching everyone argue and try to make political hay out of a crisis rather than act rationally, is that as of this afternoon it is looking like they are getting everything set up at my office to get the employees working from home. They just sent out an email to take your laptop home to test if at home this evening to see that the VPN is working. Problem for me is, I am the last person in my team that hasn't had his desktop upgraded to a laptop yet.
My manager is in Mexico this week (I was really surprised his trip leaving Monday wasn't postponed), and not back until Friday night. So I can't work with him to try to get a laptop setup tomorrow. I wouldn't be surprised if they announce the office is closed as of next week and then maybe I'm laid off since I can't work from home.

Sorry but in light of events in the past couple years I don't see anything or anyone on the horizon that has any of those qualities.

Virus has just been isolated, a step in the direction of a vaccine

https://sunnybrook.ca/research/medi...mp;page=524&f=covid-19-isolated-2020

It HAS been contained...

For now it's only on Earth...

You don't know that.

OMG.......did you read that before posting? You can’t be serious. LOL!!!

It will also be in HE!! soon...

OMG.......did you read that before posting? You can’t be serious. LOL!!!

The isolated virus will help researchers in Canada and across the world develop better diagnostic testing, treatments and vaccines, and gain a better understanding of SARS-CoV-2 biology, evolution and clinical shedding.

It HAS been contained...

For now it's only on Earth...

What part of:

do you not understand?

If you really don't understand the value of isolating the virus, that's surprising to me, but it would explain a lot.

I guess I'm confused. We have tests for it, and we've genetically sequenced it. Is that different from isolating it?

Fascinating article -> https://bedford.io/blog/ncov-cryptic-transmission/

Hard to believe we have become such alarmists Lets see lived thru blizzards.AIDS Swine flu,Sars,legionares disease Avian flu Zeka virus West Niles .We have what 30 case for 50 states.Most deaths are from 1 nursing home in the US.But hey lets close everything down.Then we have to ask how many people are sneaking across the border every day Seems there isnt uch worry about that.Last year more people had and died from the flu than we have with this.Rocky

Hard to believe we have become such alarmists Lets see lived thru blizzards. AIDS Swine flu,Sars,l egionares disease Avian flu Zeka virus West Niles. We have what 30 case for 50 states. Most deaths are from 1 nursing home in the US. But hey lets close everything down. Then we have to ask how many people are sneaking across the border every day? Seems there isn't much worry about that. Last year more people had and died from the flu than we have with this. Rocky

just today we had 250 deaths, for a total of almost 2000...
15.000 persons infected...6000 in intensive care. I think it is something to be taken seriously.

We are going to Italy situations, schools are now closed as from today, at least until the week after Easter. Last evening now for restaurants, pubs, events, sports events, everything cancelled as from today!
559 infected, 3 dead, but we are just starting! Non food stores have to close in the weekends.
Foodstores have trouble to keep up with dry foods, meat, vegetables, fruit...
My daughter has picked 2 boxes of Corona beer at a pub, for free, there was a complete pallet outside! You could also drink this for free at this café, I guess they couldn't sell this anymore.
People go creasy, borders of countries are closing for foreigners..

We are going to Italy situations, schools are now closed as from today, at least until the week after Easter. Last evening now for restaurants, pubs, events, sports events, everything cancelled as from today!
559 infected, 3 dead, but we are just starting! Non food stores have to close in the weekends.
Foodstores have trouble to keep up with dry foods, meat, vegetables, fruit...
My daughter has picked 2 boxes of Corona beer at a pub, for free, there was a complete pallet outside! You could also drink this for free at this café, I guess they couldn't sell this anymore.
People go creasy, borders of countries are closing for foreigners..

That right there is just STOOPID - refusing to drink Corona beer because it sounds like the virus....

So they shut down restaurants. Is the next step grocery stores? That will be interesting!

Nah, look at Italy. They closed everything but grocery stores and pharmacies (and others that sell 'essentials'), but they're encouraging (enforcing?) a distance of 6+ feet between each person, and probably limiting the number in the stores at a time to keep the separation distances.