Good historical analogy , Fat Man and Little Boy, both completed nearly at the same time, and worked as intended.

If you go to

http://www.predictcovidrisk.com/

and click the circles for different ages, gender, skin color, diseases, etc
the answer you get is only the % increase in death risk compared to a 65 year old white female with no illnesses whatsoever.

Neither the website or the research paper tells what the fatality rate is for a 65 year old white female.

The research paper does tell that there were 54,669 patients
out of the 534,023 patients
who had no illnesses or obesity ( no co-morbidities)
and that 4.7% of these 54,669 still died of Covid-19

The average age of the whole group was 77 years old
so I am going to assume the 54,669 were 77 years old.
The whole group was 57% female and 43% male so I am going to assume the 54,669 were those % gender too.

Going to the website I found that 77 year old white females had 55.6% increased risk of death compared to 65 year old females without co-mobidities.

Going to the website I found that 77 year old white males had 185% increased risk of death compared to 65 year old females without co-morbidities.

Let us mathematically call X the unknown “all skin colors combined” female 65 year old fatality rate

We get an equation

{X times (1.556) x (.57) } + {X times (1+1.85) (.43)} = 0.047

Solving for X

X = 0.022

Which means a 2.2% fatality rate for “All Skin colors combined” 65 year old American females

( I think this simple estimate is somewhat higher than the absolute true percent of White females because an unknown fraction of non white females are still in the value X)

Now that this number for the “base” fatality rate is estimated you can use

www.predictcovidrisk.com

To guess-ti-mate fatality rate.

A 90 year old white female with several co-morbidities still has a 95% chance of surviving

On the other hand
an 85 year old Black male with obesity, high blood pressure, tobacco use, and sickle cell disease has a
73% chance of surviving

I decided to do a second rough calculation.
Since Males had a 1.88 greater chance of death from Covid I suspect men were a greater fraction of those who died and so increased the male % to 75% and female drops to 25%.
The paper does state that the average age of those that died was 80 years old, so I used 80 instead of 77 years.

(.25) (1.801) X + (.75) (3.287) X = 0.047
This solves to
X = 0.016
So these new assumptions drops the fatality rate for a 65 year old White Female from 2.2% to 1.6%
My gut tells me 1.6% is probably more accurate.

I re-did this calculation again,
now taking into account the higher risk of females who were Black, Hispanic and “Other” skin color,
and assumed like other news accounts have stated that
“Half of all hospital deaths due to Covid were Black or Hispanic”

This drops X to 0.0126
so the fatality rate for White 65 year old females might be 1.26 %

There may be Genetic evidence that Humans have suffered coronavirus epidemics repeatedly over the last 25,000 years

https://www.news-medical.net/news/2...like-epidemic-up-to-25000-years-ago.aspx

Sample quote

A new study by researchers at the University of Adelaide and Australian National University in Australia and the University of Arizona in the US shows that an ancient coronavirus-like epidemic drove the adaptation of East Asian peoples from 25,000 to 5,000 years ago. The findings of their study were made available on the preprint server bioRxiv* in November 2020.

End quote

Finally, the info in the Danish trial of masks becomes public...

http://archive.is/GdZTa

Sample quote

From early April to early June, researchers at the University of Copenhagen recruited 6,024 participants who had been tested beforehand to be sure they were not infected with the coronavirus.

Half were given surgical masks and told to wear them when leaving their homes; the others were told not to wear masks in public.
At that time, 2 percent of the Danish population was infected — a rate lower than that in many places in the United States and Europe today. Social distancing and frequent hand-washing were common, but masks were not.

About 4,860 participants completed the study. The researchers had hoped that masks would cut the infection rate by half among wearers. Instead, 42 people in the mask group, or 1.8 percent, got infected, compared with 53 in the unmasked group, or 2.1 percent. The difference was not statistically significant.

“Our study gives an indication of how much you gain from wearing a mask,” said Dr. Henning Bundgaard, lead author of the study and a cardiologist at the University of Copenhagen. “Not a lot.”

Dr. Mette Kalager, a researcher at Telemark Hospital in Norway and the Harvard School of Public Health, was persuaded. The study showed that “although there might be a symbolic effect,” she wrote in an email, “the effect of wearing a mask does not substantially reduce risk” for wearers.

Critics were quick to note the study’s limitations.
Among them: The incidence of infections in Denmark was lower than it is today in many places, meaning the effectiveness of masks for wearers may have been harder to detect.
Participants reported their own test results;
mask use was not independently verified,
and users may not have worn them correctly.

End quote

U. Of Tennessee proposes that existing approved drugs
zuclopenthixol, nebivolol, and amodiaquine
be tested to see if they fight Covid-19

https://medicalxpress.com/news/2020-11-drugs-therapeutics-covid-.html

Amodiaquine is an older antimalarial,
zuclopenthixol is an antipsychotic,
and nebivolol is a blood pressure medication.

While 40% of USA Covid deaths were from nursing homes,
Additional nursing home deaths have occurred,
in the range of 40,000
due to short staffing and plain neglect.

https://medicalxpress.com/news/2020-11-covid-nursing-home-neglect-deaths.html

Sample quote

Beyond that are swelling numbers of less clear-cut deaths that doctors believe have been fueled by despair and desperation from being cut off from loved ones ̶ listed on some death certificates as "failure to thrive."

"What the pandemic did was uncover what was really going on in these facilities," said June Linnertz, whose father died in June after she found him in what she said were putrid conditions at his Plymouth, Minnesota, assisted living facility. "It was bad before, but it got exponentially worse."

Nursing home expert Stephen Kaye, a professor at the Institute on Health and Aging at the University of California, San Francisco, analyzed data from 15,000 facilities for The Associated Press, finding that
for every two COVID-19 victims in long-term care,
there is another who died prematurely of other causes.
Those "excess deaths" beyond the normal rate of fatalities in nursing homes could total more than 40,000 since March.

The more the virus spread through a home, Kaye found, the greater the level of deaths recorded for other reasons, suggesting care suffered as workers were consumed with attending to COVID-19 patients or were left short-handed as the pandemic infected employees themselves.

"The healthcare system operates kind of on the edge, just on the margin, so that if there's a crisis, we can't cope," Kaye said. "There are not enough people to look after the nursing home residents."

End quote

Argentina says lockdowns and isolation cause increases in blood pressure

https://medicalxpress.com/news/2020-11-social-isolation-covid-pandemic-linked.html

Approval given for $50
at home Covid-19 test
that gives result in 30 minutes

https://www.lucirahealth.com/

I heard a great interview with a respected doctor on the frontlines who has no political affiliation and just shared his honest educated thoughts. He begged people to be safe - said another couple hundred thousand could die before his beliefs take effect and was sad about that.


As he is on the frontline dealing with infected, he expects to be vaccinated later December. High risk people like my mom should have vaccine availability around February. Widespread USA for myself maybe Juneish. Still masks and such but I believed him, he had no agenda and it made me feel good. Forget me I care about my mom and this was great to hear.


The fastest a vaccine has been created before this was 5 years. There still isn't and HIV one. Hearing him talk gave me real hope today. I consider myself moderate (and somewhat contrarian) - this guy seemed straight up. No agenda but facts and thoughts.

Study reinforces idea that IMMR vaccine heps prevent severe Covid-19
It may be the Mumps virus that is key to cross protection against Covid.

https://medicalxpress.com/news/2020-11-mmr-vaccine-covid-.html

Sample quote

In a new study published in mBio, an open-access journal of the American Society for Microbiology, researchers provide further proof of this by showing that mumps IgG titers, or levels of IgG antibody, are inversely correlated with severity in recovered COVID-19 patients previously vaccinated with the MMR II vaccine produced by Merck. MMR II contains the Edmonston strain of measles, the Jeryl Lynn (B-level) strain of mumps, and the Wistar RA 27/3 strain of rubella.

"We found a statistically significant inverse correlation between mumps titer levels and COVID-19 severity in people under age 42 who have had MMR II vaccinations," said lead study author Jeffrey E. Gold, president of World Organization, in Watkinsville, Georgia. "This adds to other associations demonstrating that the MMR vaccine may be protective against COVID-19. It also may explain why children have a much lower COVID-19 case rate than adults, as well as a much lower death rate. The majority of children get their first MMR vaccination around 12 to 15 months of age and a second one from 4 to 6 years of age."

In the new study, the researchers divided 80 subjects into 2 groups. The MMR II group consisted of 50 U.S. born subjects who would primarily have MMR antibodies from the MMR II vaccine. A comparison group of 30 subjects had no record of MMR II vaccinations, and would primarily have MMR antibodies from other sources, including prior measles, mumps, and/or rubella illnesses. The researchers found a significant inverse correlation (rs = -0.71, P < 0.001) between mumps titers and COVID-19 severity within the MMR II group.

End quote

MMR vaccine costs $112 at Costco and mine was done in 15 minutes

Another article on MMR with slightly more detail

https://www.news-medical.net/news/20201120/MMR-vaccine-could-protect-against-COVID-19.aspx

An article from Cedars-Sinai Medical center indicating a past BCG vaccine reduces the chance of becoming infected by Covid-19 by approximately 30%

https://medicalxpress.com/news/2020-11-tuberculosis-vaccine-linked-covid-.html

Researchers claim they have found both human genes that make getting Covid-19 much less likely,
and identified 3 new already approved drugs that help resist getting infected

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/11/20/cri...ed-genes-that-protect-against-covid.html

Sample quote

The research team also identified drugs that are currently on the market for different diseases that they claim block the entry of Covid-19 into human cells by increasing cellular cholesterol. In particular, they found three drugs currently on the market were more than 100-fold more effective in stopping viral entry in human lung cells:

Amlodipine, brand name Norvasc, by Pfizer, to treat high blood pressure and angina.

Tamoxifen, brand name Soltamox by Fortovia Therapeutics, an estrogen modulator, to treat breast cancer.

Ilomastat, brand name Galardin,
it’s a matrix metalloprotease inhibitor, that now being manufactured by many companies; a chemotherapy agent, with applications for skincare and anti-aging products.

The other five drugs that were tested — called PIK-111, Compound 19, SAR 405, Autophinib, ALLN -- are used in research but are not yet branded and used in clinical trials for existing diseases.

...snip...

After intensive research the scientists and doctors claim they have found 30 genes that block the virus from infecting human cells including RAB7A, a gene that seems to regulate the ACE-2 receptor that the virus binds to and uses to enter the cell. The spike protein’s first contact with a human cell is through ACE-2 receptor.

End quote

I guess this means that some humans are born immune to Covid-19

This also may mean much less than 60% of a population will have to recover from a Covid-19 infection to reach “Herd Immunity”

Infectious particle aerodynamics

https://scitechdaily.com/aerodynami...-reduce-indoor-transmission-of-covid-19/

Sample quote

Research early in the pandemic focused on the role played by large, fast-falling droplets produced by coughing and sneezing. However, documented super-spreader events hinted that airborne transmission of tiny particles from everyday activities may also be a dangerous route of infection. Fifty-three of 61 singers in Washington state, for example, became infected after a 2.5-hour choir rehearsal in March. Of 67 passengers who spent two hours on a bus with a COVID-19-infected individual in Zhejiang Province, China, 24 tested positive afterward.

William Ristenpart, a chemical engineer at the University of California, Davis, found that when people speak or sing loudly, they produce dramatically larger numbers of micron-sized particles compared to when they use a normal voice. The particles produced during yelling, they found, greatly exceed the number produced during coughing.
...snip...
“Everyone was very worried about flutes early on, but it turns out that flutes don’t generate that much,” said Hertzberg. On the other hand, instruments like clarinets and oboes, which have wet vibrating surfaces, tend to produce copious aerosols. The good news is they can be controlled. “When you put a surgical mask over the bell of a clarinet or trumpet, it reduces the amount of aerosols back down to levels in a normal tone of voice.”
...snip
As Bazant and Bush wrote in a forthcoming paper on the work, staying six feet apart “offers little protection from pathogen-bearing aerosol droplets sufficiently small to be continuously mixed through an indoor space.” A better, flow-dynamics-based understanding of how infected particles move through a room may ultimately yield smarter strategies for reducing transmission.

End quote

$1500 per dose Regeneron antibody treatment that President and Secretary Dr. Ben Carson said worked quickly for them approved for public prescriptions

https://medicalxpress.com/news/2020-11-regeneron-antibody-treatment-trump.html

Sample quote

The company said it expects to have doses ready for 80,000 patients ready by the end of November and approximately 300,000 patients in total by the end of January 2021.

These will be available to US patients at no out-of-pocket cost under the terms of a US government program.

End quote

Reminds of the early COVID cruise ship cabin quarantines, in that most cabins had open air outdoor balcony's, with almost non existent dividers, and of course most cabins were downwind of the others on the entire ship. Didn't surprise me one bit with all the passengers getting infected while stuck in their cabins. Same thing seemed to me to be in play with all the early evening balcony opera s.inging in Italy
in the early COVID days

Socialized medicine?

Chinese researchers use computers to analyze compounds in the herbs of “traditional Chinese medicines” and report that Quercetin appears to be the best potential inhibitor of Covid-19 initial infection.

https://www.news-medical.net/news/2...bs-may-inhibit-SARS-CoV-2-infection.aspx

Sample quote

Quercetin showed a higher binding affinity to both ACE2 and the RBD of the spike protein. The dual binding effect of quercetin could therefore be synergistic and provide a strong antiviral effect against SARS-CoV-2. Furthermore, since analysis suggested that quercetin could affect immunomodulation, and because studies have shown patients with severe COVID-19 disease tend to experience cytokine storms, quercetin could help alleviate symptoms in such cases.

End quote

Canada was supposed to do a joint clinical trial with China of 4 grams per day of pure Quercetin as a Covid-19 Treatment but somehow the trial never got started. Canadian research in animals showed that Quercetin is a treatment for several viruses, including the highly deadly Ebola virus.

Dryness inside nose and “strange sensation” inside nose may be some of first signs of Covid-19 infection

https://www.news-medical.net/news/2...e-an-early-warning-sign-of-COVID-19.aspx

Sample quote

Goblet cells, which are found scattered among epithelia in the respiratory and intestinal tract, are viral targets, since they express ACE2. These mucin-producing cells are also in the respiratory epithelium of the nose. The breakdown of the mucin barrier by the action of the virus on the goblet cells could also contribute to the anosmia/hyposmia, since the odorant molecules may probably stick to their receptors with the help of the mucus.

Mucus reduction could also cause strange sensations in the nasal cavity, in which case virus-induced this could also herald COVID-19 earlier than other symptoms.

The current study sought to determine if these changes were possibly linked to other symptoms that could explain them. The researchers explored nasal symptoms in a group of 35 patients, including only those which could possibly cause marked disruptions in olfactory function. They validated their observations with a control group of similar age and sex composition.

They found that almost 70% of the patient group said they had one or more nasal symptoms, including “a strange sensation in the nose,” almost 37 times more often than the control group.

Over 60% said they felt an abnormal dryness of the nose versus around 15% of controls.
Additionally, over half of the patient group said they felt as if a strong nasal wash had been administered, while only one member of the control group reported this sensation, making the patient group risk 32-fold higher for this symptom.

End quote

Past mask studies

https://thefederalist.com/2020/11/2...th-masks-do-not-stop-viruses-like-covid/

Purdue U announces new therapy against Flu that may also work against other viruses

https://medicalxpress.com/news/2020-11-therapy-flu-covid-.html

Sample quote

The flu virus, like many other pathogenic viruses, exports its proteins into its host cell surface and then buds off nascent viruses in the process of spreading to adjacent host cells. Because these exported viral proteins are not present in the membranes of healthy host cells, the Purdue team has exploited the presence of viral proteins in infected cells by designing homing molecules that target drugs specifically to virus-infected cells, thereby avoiding the collateral toxicity that occurs when antiviral drugs are taken up by uninfected cells.

"We chose to start our tests with influenza virus because the results can often be applied to other enveloped viruses," Low said. "Our lab tests show that our process works in influenza infected mice that are inoculated with 100 times the lethal dose of virus."

Low said the new therapy may prove effective against other pathogenic virus infections such as hepatitis B, HIV and respiratory syncytial virus (RSV).

End quote