My daughters friend, who is the daughter of a car buddy and who i introduced my daughter to, has been a PA for a few years. She left Detroit to go work in NYC to help with pandemic there. They are so short staffed they are paying her THIRTEEN THOUSAND DOLLARS a week to be there. A crazy amount but then how do you put a price on something like this.

My daughters friend has been sending updates. Heres a screen shot of the latest one. GRIM.

Horrible, I just hope they get the local and Federal support they need.

There are still states that do not have stay-at-home orders in place yet. It's like the Katrina response all over again, just Nationwide.

Are medical professionals are being sent to the front lines without a firearm and have nothing to support their family if they are killed in action. This will change the course of our medical system.

My daughter is a PA. She worked in neurosurgery. She just turned thirty. She and her husband own a chiropractor business in San Antonio. She just had my first grand baby. They are still in business right now. It’s not as bad down here in Texas. Several of her friends are going because they need help so bad. She said she would go if not for her new baby. I’m glad for the new baby. I don’t think I would like her to go. Those medical workers are the heroes and very overworked. God bless them.

A little perspective is in order. For certain individuals, this virus is a very real threat. But for healthy folks under about 54 years old with access to medical treatment, the fatality rate appears to be under 1%. In some studies, as low as .6%. Other Coronaviruses such as SARS have had a much higher mortality rate. The real issue is protecting and treating those who are at most risk of severe reactions to this. But for the vast majority of us, it is nothing more than a cold.

The following is not the only source of this information. Other reliable sources report similar rates.

https://www.livescience.com/is-coronavirus-deadly.html

While what you write is true the way I see it the real problem with this virus is how easily it is transmitted with a rate somewhere around 3X what the flu or other Corona viruses were transmitted. And that is the crux of the problem. With the ability to infect probably nearly the entire world population the mortality rate could be something like the human race has never seen before. Just look at how fast this has spread world wide. I know some believe this to be over blown but just think where we might be right now if none of these measures were taken. Think about it.

1% doesn't sound bad, until you apply it to 300 million people... This virus hit the sweet spot of highly contagious and a relatively high mortality rate.

Some more perspective; according to the CDC, there are between 12,000 and 61,000 U.S. deaths annually due to influenza. We have just now reached 9,000 Covid related deaths here.

https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/index.html

The reason to do stay-at-home is not because your state is seeing high rates of the disease, it's to prevent those states not yet hard hit from eventually seeing high rates of the disease. Unfortunately, some states only seem to be reacting after it may be too late to 'flatten the curve'....the virus will come to those states, sooner or later.

The USA faced this sort of crisis before, almost 100 years ago. But with time comes the fading of memory and the value of hard-learned lessons. There is an excellent documentary on the 1918 Spanish flu pandemic here...

https://www.pbs.org/wgbh/americanexperience/films/influenza/

Granted, medicine today has progressed by light years, so has communications. But technology has also enabled disease to cross oceans in a matter of hours, whereas a steam ship in 1918 might take a week or more.

I just don't see Detroit getting anywhere near as bad as New York. The population density just isn't there - half of Detroit is vacant land at this point with around half a million people. New York had nowhere to build, so instead of out, they went up.

This is not the normal flu. I keep seeing these numbers compared and it's a false equivalency. The infection rates double every three days and it can take up to two weeks before symptoms present themselves. The funny thing about tsunamis is you don't see them coming until they're right off the tip of your nose.

The problem with Detroit is there are many people that are not incredibly intelligent. There is a large part of the area that is low income and just plain very reliant on the government for everything they do. So, in that vein, probably not much different than parts of NY.

Hold on a minute, there is huge difference between unintelligent and uneducated. Just because people are poor and uneducated does not mean they are stupid. I've known some very smart people with and without an education that choose to live a different lifestyle.

The key is in how soon good, reliable information is communicated to the masses, and then whether they will listen. Just yesterday I saw a group of younger kids here in Florida getting together, not observing social distancing rules, and then going out for things like motorcycle rides. The rides might not be bad, but the meet up before the rides could be. A week ago, I rode my bike to a parking lot (my normal spot to stop for 5 minutes and turn around), for a paved bike trail, and it was packed with cars and people. There was a group of 10 - 15 high school kids, apparently all from the same track team, who were within 2 feet of each other, all waiting to go for a run on the trail. I turned around and got out of there as fast as I could. So a lack of intelligence may not be unique to Detroit, or NY, or Florida.

NYC is a whole different ballgame than even a big city like Detroit. NYC is still the epicenter of business world, and international travel to and from NYC has to greater than Detroit, so more chances for the disease to have been introduced much sooner than in other places. Only Los Angeles, and maybe to a degree Chicago come close to NYC, with regard to commerce, International travel and population density.

Even with the stay at home order the inner city people are the ones gathering to play hoops in Detroit.. until
the city had to take down the hoops

Well, according to the Mayo Clinic "It's unclear exactly how contagious the new coronavirus is."

https://www.mayoclinic.org/diseases-conditions/coronavirus/symptoms-causes/syc-20479963

If there is not enough data for the Mayo Clinic to determine just how contagious this virus is in comparison to other infectious diseases, how did you determine that what I posted is a 'false equivalency'? How fast do you think any other cold or flu spreads? Do you have any data on that?

Make no mistake, this virus can be fatal in certain instances. But it's mortality rate is not that much different that some other viruses. In fact, the SARS a few years ago had a mortality rate nearly 10 times what this one has. And there is no evidence that Covid-19 is any more contagious.

You are are sorta right when you say that this is not the 'normal flu'. Because it is not a flu at all. It's a cold, a chest cold. And there is no evidence that it's transmission rate is any higher than other Coronoviruses. It's just that it's spread has been very well documented.

My only point is that it is unclear to many why this particular virus has been given the attention it has. We have new colds and influenzas every single year. Which is why there is a different fly shot every year. A flu shot whose efficacy rate is only 40% to 60% a year. https://www.cdc.gov/flu/vaccines-work/vaccineeffect.htm

What is it about this particular cold that has us all at a standstill?

Gee willickers Wally, maybe it's the refrigerated semi trailers stacking up for the bodies or maybe it's the overwhelmed hospitals or maybe it's the bodies stacking up all over the world.

8km

Considering the mechanics of the disease as far as how it spreads and how it actually infects is pretty much identical to flus and colds, I don't get how it can be 3x or whatever the claim is more contagious.

Still no mention of what the total cases might be over and above "confirmed" cases. Begs the question why not? The flu stats were up to 60 million cases, 1 million hospitalizations +/- and 60,000 fatalities. Is this one on track to exceed those numbers?

Kevin

Bug
Most likely would have if these drastic measures were not taken. Remember if nothing really bad becomes of this, that was the point!

They had to do it in my white bread neighborhood too. Dumb ass parents think it cant reach us. Still having playdates and walking to neighbors houses despite stay at home order. This thing infects thru air and when you dont feel or look ill. Just assume everyone has it and you will be ahead of the game

If the most vulnerable persons were identified and isolated, there really would be no reason for the rest of us to be shuttered. My father is 91 and in a nursing home. I haven't seen him in weeks. And if this goes on long enough, I may never see him again. But the facility he is in must be locked down to keep the virus out. That I understand, tough as it is. But I don't understand the need to lock me and my family down, too. We are not in a high risk group. And anyone who is, like my father, shouldn't be able to be exposed anyway. It really doesn't make any sense.

By all accounts, the survival rate is in excess of 98.5%.

A prominent economist predicted this week that there will be far more people financially destroyed by the Coronavirus than are killed by it.

You can be a carrier of the virus and be able to spread it, and not even have the symptoms.

https://www.sciencealert.com/here-s...ose-who-can-pass-corona-without-symptoms

And who qualifies as most vulnerable? Yes, it seems to kill the elderly disproportionately. But young people have dropped dead from it even after having been admitted and released from the hospital.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/us/c...irus-kills-some-young-people/ar-BB12c0gu

You can rebuild your life after this is all done. But you can't rebuild your life if you are dead. The attitude you are taking is just selfish from my point of view. Ok so we isolate only the high risk group of individuals and the rest of you get infected and most survive. Who is going to take care of all the people you isolated? You bunch of infected people? I don't want you anywhere near me, fixing my meals, bringing me food, or life's necessities. I'm so sorry you are inconvenienced by all this and have to suffer the horror of not going out to work, eat, or whatever else it is that you feel is so important that it eclipses the safety and well being of others. I'll stop there before I go any further.

The man in the MSN article was 30 years old. And died at home with no medical care although his wife had already tested positive. In hind sight, he might have handled that better.

At any rate, the mortality rate for a 30 year old is not more that .2%. Probably lower once a better understanding of how many people are actually infected. So, that example is a real anomaly. That exact thing happens every year with the flu, too and we don't shut the country down for it.

He is certainly not the only one. If every 30 something in the world is infected and .2% of them die how many people is that?

Man, get a grip. You are really overreacting. Too much CNN, maybe.

Who is taking care of those isolated (like my 91yo father) now? The thing is, you take as many precautions as you can.

I'll ask again, what is statistically different about this Coronavirus? The only real difference is the hype. And the emotional overreaction displayed here. Nothing based on facts, just emotions.

My business is classified as essential. So, other than not being able to see my dad (which I understand), I have not had much inconvenience at all. So, having said that, am I still selfish? My concern is not for myself. At least not financially. We'll be fine. My concern is for what I see happening to friends and neighbors. And I can't help but ask, is it really necessary? You emphatically say yes. Me? I'm not so sure.

Once again, about the same as every year with influenza. The ONLY difference here is the hype and notoriety. Do a little research.

Maybe you missed this part of the story...

"At the hospital, Ben received oxygen and responded well, Brandy said. They gave him fluids and Tylenol and then sent him home that same evening. "Keep doing what you're doing at home," they said.' In other words - went to the hospital on Friday. At the hospital he looked well enough after some treatment to be sent home. Doing well at home Sunday. Sunday evening having issues breathing. Dead Monday morning...

But hey, it's your life, and the lives of everyone you come in contact with....have you been tested? Are you sure you're not a carrier? Are you sure the people you will encounter aren't carriers?

My wife just told me that here in MICH we can go out fishing... BUT when you go/in into the launch ramp
the DNR will ask to see proof of where you live and the persons on the boat better have the same
address.. if not you get a $500-$1000 ticket at the boat ramp... that is FACT

Statistically the entire population has some form of immunity to most viruses. Even the common flu you are somewhat resistant to, especially if you had a flu shot for that year. Even if there were to be a giant "measles outbreak" today, the vast majority of folks have been vaccinated and have little to worry about. Perhaps a booster is needed, but they can administer vaccines immediate and people have the antibodies to fight it already.

The difference here with COVID is that there appears to be little-to-no immunity to it. Some people can fight off with mild symptoms, some do not. Timing is a huge problem. When the general population gets the same illness at the same time, which can greatly consume machines which are not plentiful [ventilators], the system reaches capacity extremely fast. Even then, those people are spending 14-21days on a vent, rather than the typical 3-4 days. For every severe patient that exceeds the capacity of local facilities is pretty much a 1-for-1 death. People go from staying at home with a fever to dead within 12-48hours.

That said, this is the same mindset that took Italy by storm. Italy currently has a 12.3% death rate. [that's a lot]. 15,887 deaths for 128,948 cases. I understand in the grand scheme of things, the numbers aren't astronomical, but it is a pretty ruthless illness that is extremely contagious in close quarters.

The whole goal of this exercise is to make it seem like an over-reaction, that is ideal! People get back to their lives, people recover, life is good. It's quickly reaching a point to where it's not an over-reaction, people are not doing what they should be doing and will continue to make things worse. States are being left to fend for themselves and Governors, many of which have never dealt with a situation remotely to this magnitude are left to their gut feeling for guidance.

I feel like the 100k-240k death projections for the US is extremely low, but we shall see.

Wife and I went to the grocery store today. We live on the border of Detroit and drove about an hour north to more rural area (not country) to a large chain store. This is the 2nd time we've done this in a week. The store was WELL stocked except anything paper product or disinfectant. There were limits on 2 of most items like meat or water bottles. We bough $400 worth of food Thurs and another $300 today. We don't PLAN on going shopping for at LEAST a month. We both wore N95 3M masks from Home Depot (I have a few left at my shop that I use when handling fiberglass insulation) and black, nitrile gloves. I felt like I looked paranoid BUT I cant believe how many people, even though everyone was respectful of spacing, weren't wearing masks or gloves AND HAD YOUNG CHILDREN WITH THEM. I'm not paranoid and not afraid to die but at 57 I feel I've worked DAMN HARD for 45 years from a paper route at 12 to my own small business and I'd be PISSED to go drowning in my own fluids through no fault of my own. I don't drink (well an Old Fashioned every couple weeks) or smoke, could lose 15-20lbs but I am VERY physically active at work for 12-18 hours every day. Even today, Sunday.

Good luck to all that don't take this as serious. Prepare for the worst. Hope for the best.

Some will take this serious, others.....

I haven't watched TV in over 2 weeks and still don't have any TV here. Never watched CNN. I hear ABC news and local news on the one radio station we get. So most of my information comes from the internet. We will see what happens in the coming weeks with the peak expected around the first of May. As for me, I'm staying out here in the woods for as long as I can.

Perhaps it is this statement that makes me think you are being selfish and not as concerned about your neighbors as you are yourself.

Wow.......now I understand why some people need to be told to isolate themselves, yet they can’t understand.

I know right? I guess the overwhelmed health care system, shortage of hospital beds, ventilators and the amount of people infected world wide in just a few short months just isn't enough to convince them.
What I want to know is, if as has been contended, this is no worse than any other annual flu, then why are hospital ships being pulled into ports on both coasts? Why don't we hear about hospitals being overwhelmed every year with annual flu victims? And I guess every country on the planet is over reacting as well and only a few chosen people know better.

Isn't there already an official coronavirus thread at the top of the page? Since the OP posted his info in that thread, why not share all of your thoughts there?

If you really isolate yourself, what does it matter what anyone else does? This is not the first time that this kind of thing has hit in recent memory. Although it is usually an influenza, this happens to be cold. But this is the first time that the United States economy has been shut down over any of it.

If a 98.5%+ survival rate isn't proof enough that this isn't that much different than other recent flus, what would be? 99%? And it just might be that high. The only real difference in this is the rapidity of it's progression. And the constant hyping. But overall, it is not that much different than many other recent flus. Although some have been much, much deadlier than this one.

"From April 12, 2009 to April 10, 2010, CDC estimated there were 60.8 million cases (range: 43.3-89.3 million), 274,304 hospitalizations (range: 195,086-402,719), and 12,469 deaths (range: 8868-18,306) in the United States due to the (H1N1)pdm09 virus."
https://www.cdc.gov/flu/pandemic-resources/2009-h1n1-pandemic.html

Obviously, they don't even know really how many cases or deaths there were due to the H1N1 because it was just another influenza albeit more deadly.

Why didn't we shutter the economy on that one? It did roll out somewhat slower than this one. But the end numbers may very well be quite similar. Is the only difference the time frame?

Look at the CDC's own numbers. Look at what some of our other leading medical centers report. That is my point. This is just not that astronomical of an event.

Not going to engage with you any longer until you answer my questions. You apparently can't see the forest for the trees.

Well 71TA, weeding thru the few "thread crapper troll" comments on here I hope your daughters friend can spend that "$13K a week" after this is all done. Wish them the best of luck and thanks. I do not have a Primary Doctor. I have a Primary PA and am very happy to have a PA.

The healthcare system is only under stress in a few certain areas. Not the whole nation. In my own county, as of today, there is only one confirmed case and she is at home, in isolation and recovering. As are almost 99% of the known infected.

This pandemic is causing more infections and deaths than some years, but not as many as others. Data proves that, all you have to do is look. This virus has come on fast and has had an unusually high demand for ventilators. So the bad news is more concentrated both in time and in the locations where your news originates.

The news have been covering the Comfort in New York quite a lot and as of today there were 20 patients on board. https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/02/nyregion/ny-coronavirus-usns-comfort.html

Oh, and by the way, "in 2015, the New York State Task Force on Life and the Law noted that New York would need to purchase thousands of ventilators in the event of a major outbreak, as well as train additional personnel in how to use them. Instead of following through on these potential lifesaving measures, Governor Andrew Cuomo's administration sought ways to cut healthcare spending; endorsing the Task Force's November 2015 Ventilator Allocation Guidelines. This is a 272-page report that essentially discusses how to determine which patients will or will not receive respiratory assistance in a severe outbreak. Quoting from the report, page 37: New York State has stockpiled 1,750 ventilators to help reduce ventilator need in the face of the moderate scenario; however, there are no current plans to buy enough ventilators for the most severe model. The State's current approach to stockpiling a limited number of ventilators balances the need to prepare for a potential pandemic against the need to maintain adequate funding for current and ongoing health care expenses. Furthermore, severe staffing shortages are anticipated, and purchasing additional ventilators beyond a threshold will not save additional lives, because there will not be an enough trained staff to operate them. In the event of an overwhelming burden on the health care system, New York will not have sufficient ventilators to meet critical care needs despite its emergency stockpile. If the most severe forecast becomes a reality, New York State and the rest of the country will need to allocate ventilators and other scarce resources".

In 2015 New York knew that they would not have enough ventilators nor enough trained personnel to operate them. And did nothing.

I arrived at my opinion with data primarily from the CDC. But I also have information from Mayo Clinic and other top US health institutions and have saved you the trouble of doing any research by providing links to those sources. So far, you are regurgitating news reports. I haven't seen you list a single reference source. Show us some comparatives that prove this event is enough worse than similar recent events to shutter the entire country. That is the crux of my position. And I have tried to support that position with links to nationally accredited disease centers. What are your sources other than news reports, most of which originate from the epicenters of the Coronavirus. They have no perspective.

You are welcome to your own opinion, but not your own facts. Why don't you supply some facts from reliable sources. You want to throw your opinion around and call me names, but you neither acknowledge nor dispute any of the sources I have referenced. Why is that?

The CDC says that almost 99% of those known to be infected, fully recover. Can you dispute that? That would seem to be more significant that an empty hospital ship on the east coast.

Most of my information has come from links posted in the virus thread. I can't post links from this crappy tablet I have here, trust me I've tried numerous times. You do what ever you have to do and I'll do what I have to do. I didn't call you any names that I know of, I said I felt you were being selfish with that attitude and I still feel that way. Hope you and your family don't get sick.

This is a hugely exaggerated crisis perpetrated by people hell bent on transforming the world in a way that does not benefit anyone but the puppeteers.
Follow the money to see who benefits from all of this.

Oh jeebus, more tin foil hat conspiracy theroies. Yeah I know, China locked down an entire province because this is no big deal. Tell the Italians it was no big deal all their loved ones died. The Chinese want to kill me, now you guys kill me. Good Lord is it any wonder this world is in the state it is in? You people have gone insane.

I used to respect the older dudes because I thought that they had lived long enough to see things, learn things and know things. I now see that some older people have dodged bullets all their lives and many are no smarter than people half their age. Warning labels, civil obedience and who knows what else have protected the weak and the stupid from an early demise. It used to be that only the strong survived. The older you get, the more cautious you become.
I don't dismiss this virus entirely, I just see it as a matter of opportunity for some very influential people. Just because it sounds way out there doesn't mean that it has to be invalid.
Remember "The Usual Suspects" ?
The greatest trick the Devil every played was to convince the world that he didn't exist.
It may be unlikely but it isn't impossible.
I prefer to keep my mind open to many possibilities. I also am skeptical at the same time. Seems smarter than to hunker down and do everything that the MAN says to do.

Will some profit off of this? Absolutely. Many more however will go broke. Was this virus man made? Possibly, however research says that is unlikely. Was it unleashed on the world intentially? Also possible but most likely not. Accidental release? Also possible. Natures way of cleansing itself? Very probable.

This has gone off topic, so let's keep it contained to the pinned thread.