Re: who is bailing on stocks?
[Re: AndyF]
#2773496
05/11/20 12:30 PM
05/11/20 12:30 PM
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Joined: Jan 2003
Posts: 2,774 St. Louis, Missouri area
Cometstorm
"Beat It"
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"Beat It"
Joined: Jan 2003
Posts: 2,774
St. Louis, Missouri area
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I've been using the latest run up to exit most of my positions. I see no reason to be invested now. We're looking at some serious damage to the economy over the next 12 months so I don't see any reason to own stocks while all of that gets sorted out. I'll get back into the market once things settle down. I don't really know why the market has been moving up so strongly the past few weeks. Someone big is betting on a quick return to normal but everything I see and hear tells me that a lot of little guys are in the process of being wiped out. So I'll just wait this one out. I really don't need to take a bunch of risk for a small reward at this point in my life. I certainly understand the apprehension, and everyone not only dances to their own drum, but has their own risk tolerances, age, and a host of other factors. Personally, I feel a well diversified portfolio is my way to go (with at least a five year hold outlook) i’m positioned about 25% cash and CD’d, maybe 5% gold/silver, and the rest widely scattered in the open market, with some high rated short term bonds. Even “cash” can be eaten away, if overt inflation rears its ugly head. With all the money being mass printed, that has to be considered. With the Great Depression, two world wars, real estate meltdown, dot com collapse etc, etc. it always looks darkest in the middle of whatever crisis. “But THIS TIME is different!” Some truth in that, but I believe we WILL get through this. If not, investment decisions probably won’t matter. Only the basic survival needs will count. I put that likelihood WAY down the list,
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Re: who is bailing on stocks?
[Re: AndyF]
#2780602
06/02/20 09:33 AM
06/02/20 09:33 AM
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Joined: Dec 2007
Posts: 2,684 Des Moines IA
Soopernaut
master
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master
Joined: Dec 2007
Posts: 2,684
Des Moines IA
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So how do people feel now?
I had a new account with TD Ameritrade in the later part of March. I wasn't going to wait 3 months or longer to start trading, however I did keep a large portion in cash because people kept saying it would get worse. Now that the shock and awe of Covid 19 has worn off I don't think there will be another huge crash, even if earnings reports are lower. That may already be built into the price.
I did some things wrong and some things right.
I bought UCO too soon and never thought oil could go below $0. I bought it several times at different price points, including the day oil was below $0. This was going to be my big money maker. I'm still in the hole but I'm in for the long haul. I was much further in the hole for a while. The current price of oil is unsustainable and nobody in the business wants the price to remain where it is.
Since I was losing in oil and that was going to be my main focus, I decided to diversify. I bought URTY on April 1st for $17.22/share. It is currently trading at $32.37/share (over 87% gain). I don't think I'll be losing money on this for a long time. Unfortunately, I didn't buy enough. Hindsight is almost 20:20.
Now it feels too late to put the rest of the cash into the market, unless there is a recession coming or another large drop. It doesn't seem as likely as people were predicting 2 months ago.
1970 Dodge d100/eventually going on a 77 D100 frame
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Re: who is bailing on stocks?
[Re: Soopernaut]
#2780625
06/02/20 10:36 AM
06/02/20 10:36 AM
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Joined: Dec 2007
Posts: 19,953 Puttin' on the foil in Charles...
not_a_charger
Mr. Big Shot Moparts Moderator
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Mr. Big Shot Moparts Moderator
Joined: Dec 2007
Posts: 19,953
Puttin' on the foil in Charles...
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I've done really well with PGR and Ford. I sold my Moderna near the height, and boy, am I glad I did. Took a $1k gamble on Akorn and got burned. Made a few bucks on KTOV.
My 401k has bounced back nicely. I've recovered about 75% of my losses there. The college funds are about back to where they were. Not quite, but close.
Earning every penny of that moderator paycheck.
DBAP
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Re: who is bailing on stocks?
[Re: not_a_charger]
#2780684
06/02/20 12:35 PM
06/02/20 12:35 PM
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Joined: Jan 2003
Posts: 7,495 Minnesota
Hemi_Joel
OP
master
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OP
master
Joined: Jan 2003
Posts: 7,495
Minnesota
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I made about 60% in a day on a small amount with some put options on Tesla. I wish I would have predicted the reversal and bought some call, but I thought it was going lower. Other than that, I'm still on the sidelines. I might start getting back in, but I don't have time to study individual stock buys right now. Maybe get into an S&P index and a NASDAQ index?
[img]http://i.imgur.com/boeexFms.jpg[/img]31 Plymouth Coupe, 392 Hemi, T56 magnum RS23J71 RS27J77 RP23J71 RO23J71 WM21J8A I don't regret the things I've done. I only regret the things I didn't do. "Wise men talk because they have something to say; fools because they have to say something. ~ Plato"
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Re: who is bailing on stocks?
[Re: mopowers]
#2781085
06/03/20 02:32 PM
06/03/20 02:32 PM
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Joined: Oct 2007
Posts: 3,897 Oregon
hooziewhatsit
master
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master
Joined: Oct 2007
Posts: 3,897
Oregon
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Honestly, I think it's going to dive again. A lot of people are still not working, and the extended benefits are going to run out at some point. Congress seems to not care to extend anything either. And that was before all of the protests.
It does show how disconnected Wall Street is from Main Street though, and why we can't necessarily say that everyone is doing fine just because the stock market is up.
If you ever find yourself in a fair fight, your tactics suck.
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Re: who is bailing on stocks?
[Re: hooziewhatsit]
#2782013
06/06/20 09:23 AM
06/06/20 09:23 AM
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Joined: Dec 2007
Posts: 19,953 Puttin' on the foil in Charles...
not_a_charger
Mr. Big Shot Moparts Moderator
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Mr. Big Shot Moparts Moderator
Joined: Dec 2007
Posts: 19,953
Puttin' on the foil in Charles...
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My 401k is up about $97k since Jan 1, but is down about $45k from it's all-time high, which was in late Feb or early March, I think?
I sold everything in my brokerage account yesterday. Took my profits and went home PGR and Ford were good to me.
Earning every penny of that moderator paycheck.
DBAP
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Re: who is bailing on stocks?
[Re: not_a_charger]
#2782028
06/06/20 10:03 AM
06/06/20 10:03 AM
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Joined: Jan 2003
Posts: 2,774 St. Louis, Missouri area
Cometstorm
"Beat It"
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"Beat It"
Joined: Jan 2003
Posts: 2,774
St. Louis, Missouri area
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My 401k is up about $97k since Jan 1, but is down about $45k from it's all-time high, which was in late Feb or early March, I think?
I sold everything in my brokerage account yesterday. Took my profits and went home PGR and Ford were good to me. Interesting... Are you out permanently, or do you plan on getting back in at some point. If so, what do you plan for the future? Not trying to be nosy, just curious.
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Re: who is bailing on stocks?
[Re: not_a_charger]
#2782041
06/06/20 10:37 AM
06/06/20 10:37 AM
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Joined: Jan 2003
Posts: 16,928 NC
440Jim
I Live Here
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I Live Here
Joined: Jan 2003
Posts: 16,928
NC
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My 401k is up about $97k since Jan 1, but is down about $45k from it's all-time high, which was in late Feb or early March, I think?
I sold everything in my brokerage account yesterday. Took my profits and went home PGR and Ford were good to me. Sounds like you did well. Selling everything is a big move. Even if the market goes down a few percent in the next couple months, most people can't get back in fast enough (calling the bottom) and miss most of the initial move to the upside. Research shows that most of the yearly gains are made on only a few days, and if you were out those days, you underperform for the year. Most people.
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Re: who is bailing on stocks?
[Re: Cometstorm]
#2782077
06/06/20 12:05 PM
06/06/20 12:05 PM
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Joined: Dec 2007
Posts: 19,953 Puttin' on the foil in Charles...
not_a_charger
Mr. Big Shot Moparts Moderator
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Mr. Big Shot Moparts Moderator
Joined: Dec 2007
Posts: 19,953
Puttin' on the foil in Charles...
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My 401k is up about $97k since Jan 1, but is down about $45k from it's all-time high, which was in late Feb or early March, I think?
I sold everything in my brokerage account yesterday. Took my profits and went home PGR and Ford were good to me. Interesting... Are you out permanently, or do you plan on getting back in at some point. If so, what do you plan for the future? Not trying to be nosy, just curious. My brokerage account is not my primary source of investment/savings. I have a 401k, my wife and I have Roths, my wife has a pension and a 403b, and we have 529s for the kids, plus a savings account, and 2 CDs for each kid. The $$ I put into my brokerage account was $$ that I could afford to take a risk with. Some of it worked, some did not. Overall, I did pretty well. We're about to drop about $40k into remodeling part of our house, so the $$ that was in the brokerage account is going to be put to use there. I am sure I will get back in at some point, but I'm happy with how it turned out.
Earning every penny of that moderator paycheck.
DBAP
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Re: who is bailing on stocks?
[Re: 440Jim]
#2782078
06/06/20 12:06 PM
06/06/20 12:06 PM
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Joined: Dec 2007
Posts: 19,953 Puttin' on the foil in Charles...
not_a_charger
Mr. Big Shot Moparts Moderator
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Mr. Big Shot Moparts Moderator
Joined: Dec 2007
Posts: 19,953
Puttin' on the foil in Charles...
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My 401k is up about $97k since Jan 1, but is down about $45k from it's all-time high, which was in late Feb or early March, I think?
I sold everything in my brokerage account yesterday. Took my profits and went home PGR and Ford were good to me. Sounds like you did well. Selling everything is a big move. Even if the market goes down a few percent in the next couple months, most people can't get back in fast enough (calling the bottom) and miss most of the initial move to the upside. Research shows that most of the yearly gains are made on only a few days, and if you were out those days, you underperform for the year. Most people. By "everything," I meant just what I had in my brokerage account. See above. Nice move with Boeing. I hope that pays off handsomely for you.
Earning every penny of that moderator paycheck.
DBAP
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Re: who is bailing on stocks?
[Re: 440Jim]
#2782300
06/07/20 01:23 AM
06/07/20 01:23 AM
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Joined: Feb 2015
Posts: 2,079 CA
crackedback
top fuel
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top fuel
Joined: Feb 2015
Posts: 2,079
CA
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Cracked_back (4/6/2020) he wasn’t sold on the rebound. But the S&P is up 28% since then. He missed it.
Still not sold and this is ALL fed pump on low volume. The big players aren't in this and JMO, that should create some uneasiness. If the volume was higher and strong on up days, I might be convinced. I'm not a buy and hold guy, don't give two piles of dung about how far up the market is from the lows. I trade an entirely different style and the gains I have dwarf any of the index market rebound. Some days I'll make 10%+ and the market is flat or down. The general trend is always up though for the longer term buy/hold folks. It's always wise to pay attention to the trend. I did buy some LEAPS on BA when it was sub $100, so that's my long term approach. Lots of ways to make a buck in the market.
Last edited by crackedback; 06/07/20 01:25 AM.
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Re: who is bailing on stocks?
[Re: crackedback]
#2782318
06/07/20 07:18 AM
06/07/20 07:18 AM
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Joined: Dec 2014
Posts: 5,886 ohio
ruderunner
master
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master
Joined: Dec 2014
Posts: 5,886
ohio
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I rode out the storm for the most part. Was down close to 40 percent back in March, now have recovered to 95 percent of previous high.
Only changes I made was to double down on some of my worst performers and buy a handful of things that seemed like a good buy.
I might offload some of my tech stocks soon, they enjoyed quite a boost these last 2 quarters but once life resumes normal I expect them to drop back as people aren't forced to stay home and surf the net.
I might use those funds to buy airline stock. But im waiting to see how they're doing. It will be a long term purchase.
As for the general economy I believe it will come back, people have had a taste of a pretty great economy for the last 3 years, something that many have never experienced, looking at you millennials and minorities.
Angry white pureblood male
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