Claims are measured in 2 ways:

- Frequency - how many claims are there?
- Severity - how much do claims cost?

When COVID hit, frequency plummeted. Insurers gave back billions in premiums because they hadn't underwritten their risks based upon the significantly reduced driving that occurred. To be fair, they did so before states could tell them to do so, which is exactly what would've happened had they not done it on their own. It was the right thing to do, but they were going to have to do it, whether on their own or being told to do so.

So, frequency dropped, and that's all the industry was focused on. Severity wasn't really given any thought, because why would severity fluctuate much? Except that it did. People drove faster and more recklessly because roads were wide open, and severity went up. The industry was caught off guard, but assumed that once restrictions were eased and traffic increased that severity would drop back to pre-COVID levels. Except that it didn't. Traffic increased, which increased frequency, but severity has continued to trend upward because people are still driving like they are the only car on the road. Insurers did not expect this. As a result, increased frequency and continually increasing severity are driving rate increases.