This is from a private forecasting service an offshore company pays dearly for. I have found their forecasts to be dead on accurate.


Hurricane Ida Advisory 11
Valid: 04:00 AM EDT Saturday August 28, 2021
Hurricane Ida Track Chart, Advisory #11


Current Location: 23.8N, 85.2W
Geographic Reference: 435 miles SE of Mouth of MS River
Movement: Northwest at 15 mph
Max Winds: 80 mph gusting to 100 mph
Current Hurricane Severity Index: 8 out of a possible 50 points (3 size, 5 intensity)
Max Predicted Hurricane Severity Index: 23 out of a possible 50 points (8 size, 15 intensity)
Current Radius of Tropical Storm-Force Winds: 115 miles
Max Predicted Radius of Tropical Storm-Force Winds: 150 miles
Organizational Trend: Steady
Forecast Confidence: Above Average
Estimated Central Pressure: 986 mb

Key Points
1. There has been little change to the track or intensity forecast.
2. Severe damage from both wind and tidal surge is expected for southeast Louisiana.
3. Hurricane force winds are possible in Baton Rouge.
4. Inland flooding is also likely.

Our Forecast
Ida continues to move to the northwest. The overnight model guidance indicates that this track will continue. Models continue to converge upon a landfall somewhere between Lafayette and the mouth of the Mississippi River, with the greatest chance of landfall occurring between Morgan City and Houma. Our forecast track is largely unchanged from before. This takes Ida into the deepwater lease blocks today. Landfall is forecast to occur late tomorrow afternoon over southeast Louisiana. After landfall, Ida should slow and turn to the north and then the northeast. Our forecast takes Ida near Baton Rouge early Monday morning and then into the southeast United States.

Aircraft data indicated that the core of Ida was slightly disrupted by its passage over Cuba. This has kept the storm from intensifying over the past few hours. It is even possible that our estimate of 80 mph winds is generous. That said, the last pass through the center by the aircraft found a falling pressure, so perhaps Ida is starting to organize. Only gradual intensification over the next 6 to 12 hours is likely as the core recovers. Once the inner core recovers, rapid intensification will likely occur given how favorable the environment is. As Ida moves through the deepwater lease blocks, winds will likely be in the 100 mph to 110 mph range. By the time it reaches the SE Louisiana, winds are forecast to be 130 mph. After landfall, weakening should initially be slow due to the marshland that is over the south coast of Louisiana. More rapid weakening is expected once Ida moves north of the marshland. In addition to intensifying, Ida should become a bit larger. The combination of the intensity and size of Ida should result in a very high tidal surge over southeast Louisiana.

Our forecast keeps hurricane force winds a little west of New Orleans. However, Houma and Morgan City are expected to receive the worst of Ida. Baton Rouge is also at risk of receiving hurricane force winds.

Once inland, the focus will switch to inland flooding. The heaviest rains, which are forecast to be 10 to 15 inches with isolated 20 inch totals, are expected over southeast Louisiana, including Baton Rouge and New Orleans. However, up to a foot of rain could occur as far north as central Mississippi.

Expected Impacts on Land
Northern Gulf Coast: Severe to catastrophic wind and tidal surge damage is expected near where the eye makes landfall. Complete power outages, likely lasting for weeks, will likely occur for areas that experience the eyewall. Widespread power outages are expected even outside of the eyewall, along with some wind and surge damage. Flooding rains will create widespread street flooding and areas of flood damage.

Expected Impacts Offshore
Northwest Gulf of Mexico: Squalls could move into the southern deepwater lease areas offshore southeast and south-central Louisiana as early as noon. Squalls may continue across southeast Louisiana blocks through early Monday afternoon when Ida is well inland into Mississippi.

Our next advisory will be issued by 9 AM CDT

Stay safe Kevin!

9 months ago bought a nice Honda powered 13HP gen with electric start.
Display said dead bath not even thinking ordered a new batt. Stick it in says dead battery.
Test battery 13.something bolts. Checked at starter same volt but no start.
He h support says do nothing bring it in. Guy says,takes a week from looking at it order parts and fix.
Called back 1
5 weeks later guy says can not lol at it for 5 to 6 weeks it is in line to be looked at be lucky to get it back in 8 weeks from.drop off.
Called tech and said get on them never heard back.
It ran the whole home well.
So I got out the 4000 watt I bought in 1992 in 2008 it ran 7 days balls to the wall.
B&S 8hp cast iron sleeve, dont make am like that no more.

I am worried that there will be rapid intensification just before landfall due to a very hot water eddy just off shore southwest Louisiana.

Our family has just talked my niece into driving to Houston, she reports traffic westbound is slowed to a crawl.

Good luck Kevin! Stay safe

PS - I just refound the Kodak photodisk you sent of your house being lifted, so cool!

Between that and the Cat 5 roll-down shutters, I am hoping for the best. Side note} This storm is also hitting the same day as Katrina as it was 8/29/2005 Crazy

Stay safe everyone

Be safe guys

This storm is also hitting the same day as Katrina as it was 8/29/2005

150 MPH even worse than I guessed

Predicted track trending East

I hope the improvements to levees and pumps had good design and construction,
but my gut keep whispering no.....

There is plenty of sand and gravel flowing down the Mississippi river to fill low areas.

Wind gust at 45 to 50 right now here in Kenner and power off but back on.
Not even close to us yet.
Told Crystal wonder what a 3 4 bed with 4 car garage in As etc cost.

Be safe over there. It's fixin' to get rough.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=A8bRlF9bZws&ab_channel=BlueRockArtistRanchandStudio

Take care.

Hey be careful my wife and I are praying for you guys.

pInKsTeR. How you doin ?

It was a tie or worse than 2005. At least in my location.
But we were better prepared. 12 plus hours almost non stop.
Lost power right after I posted this morn. Weather was to bad to bust the generator up.
Is now and went right to work ckeaning up downed trees and small parts of them. Major mess.
No water as they say broke and losing 1/4 million gallons per min
Ripped my roof, and many others, my fire place pipe and cap gone. Siding some gone.
Mr Briggs and Stratton rolling along makeing power and look like he will be for some time.

Sorry to hear about the damage glad to hear you guys are okay stay safe all the best John and Ellie

Glad you're safe and are making some power. Hang in there.

Right at edge of eye no no rest. So way over 12 hours,constant high wind.
Just 13 inches of rain at my home. We had the wind side. But wind non stop just slowed to 45 50 and back up.
Crazier than a wild ride in Doc Fibers Hell Kitty with him behind the wheel.
At least Katrina passed quick. Stuff go to g the roll down cat 5 shutter splenty. So worth the 10k
Trees pulled out of ground killed the main water for the parish on both sides the Miss river so just dumping 250,000 gallons a min.
Who knows when they will fix that or power.
What's strange is Betsy, 8-29-65 Katrina 8-29-2005 and Ida all 8-29-2021.

Glad you got through safely and are generating electrical power.

I thought it would be an experience to ride out Hurricane Wilma,
but after the second hour of that Banshee like noise,
and fearing spin off tornadoes arriving unseen,
I would have preferred to be working back in a coal mine, even on a “pillar section.”

If Washington is about to create from thin air, 4.7 Trillion dollars,
why not retrofit a fleet of old oil tankers to pump cold ocean water from 300 feet down to create a “cold eddy” at the surface in the path of an oncoming Hurricane?

Ida has demonstrated what happens when a Hurricane passes over a Hot Water eddy just off shore.

A much weakened Katrina left the swamps of western Florida, then passed over another Hot Water Eddy just north of Key West island.

Yes it slowed way down very long stall.
So once was enough? I rode 5 good ones out I would like to make this my last.
I wanted it to be 4 but wife said stay save the 22cf freezer packed with meat add in the fridge, plus was worried about looters, at bay since we had so many during Katrina.
After the Howling for the 1st 6 hours she said Kevin you were 100 PERCENT right, we should have left.
So we know know 2 things that will never happen again. She won't stay and I will never be right.
I did fill the hot tub to the brim added extra chems 2 days ahead. So we have bath water and used bath water to flush the comodes with.
So after the clean up she had a nice hot bath.
Gustav was. It that bad in 2008 but killed power 7 days. Had to run 15 gallons 110 with lead VP on the gen. What a smell

PINKster .. what is the alleged Hell kitty I supposedly have ?

Now my Scatty Packer at almost 170 ......WITH ME AT THE WHEEL .....

on I-75 was a smooth as silk

GOOD to hear you’re doing ok .... doc mop in slide-into-hell is ok too ....

But lost power some time ago

3406, glad you are doing [sorta] well ! hope the total after storm damage isn't too bad.
hope your friends and neighbors fair good as well.
please try and stay safe !

Sorry I forgot What YoU Have.
Remember now you raced a Hell Kitty.
Wife Crystal and i up at day brake and up on my dad's roof all morning. It is a wet heat. And and finished with all the tree stuff that fell into his yard.
Looking from my home to his much damage all over. And Fed's have still not set up Food or MREs, WATER or ICE at the locations they would normaly do it. And have not elsewhere any place close at all.
Although I did see Biden and my lame duck Govener Edwards they had it under control. That's about all I can say about them in in the General board. Thanks for nothing, Uncle Joe, and Cousin Eddie you lied on TV.
Thank God I am a nut who prepares. But am having to share mine with others.

Do not depend on anyone but yourself. Going take a hot tub bath and eat some New Orleans Red Beans and Rice with Ham my wife and I made and pass out some plates to close neibors.
Glad to hear Ron in SLIDELL is ok they got some flood

Alliant Energy out of Cedar Rapids Iowa is sending trucks and crews down to help restore power. Good luck and stay safe down there!

It's futile to try to disrupt a hurricane, it's been considered and studied and looked at time and time again. There's just too much energy required to do so, and it wouldn't alter things in any significant way.

Glad you made it out ok. Stay safe. You don`t want the next one to be your last one.