When you witness the really poor judgement of drivers on the Interstates,
it is hard to argue that they are thinking about wisely spending money,
or how long it would take them to heal up after an accident,
much less whether they would EVER fully heal.

Whereas we have always had to be on the look-out for drunk drivers,
opiate drivers,
meth drivers,
and looking down at cell phone screen drivers
have at least made 4X as many
dangerous drivers to watch out for.

As to the phase of the economic cycle
I am 80% confident we are in the declining phase,
and 80% of the people seem ill at ease.

It is not a “Morning in America”
optimistic phase of the emotional cycle.