Posted By: 340SIX
Looks like it may rain - 08/28/21 09:17 PM
This is from a private forecasting service an offshore company pays dearly for. I have found their forecasts to be dead on accurate.
Hurricane Ida Advisory 11
Valid: 04:00 AM EDT Saturday August 28, 2021
Hurricane Ida Track Chart, Advisory #11
Current Location: 23.8N, 85.2W
Geographic Reference: 435 miles SE of Mouth of MS River
Movement: Northwest at 15 mph
Max Winds: 80 mph gusting to 100 mph
Current Hurricane Severity Index: 8 out of a possible 50 points (3 size, 5 intensity)
Max Predicted Hurricane Severity Index: 23 out of a possible 50 points (8 size, 15 intensity)
Current Radius of Tropical Storm-Force Winds: 115 miles
Max Predicted Radius of Tropical Storm-Force Winds: 150 miles
Organizational Trend: Steady
Forecast Confidence: Above Average
Estimated Central Pressure: 986 mb
Key Points
1. There has been little change to the track or intensity forecast.
2. Severe damage from both wind and tidal surge is expected for southeast Louisiana.
3. Hurricane force winds are possible in Baton Rouge.
4. Inland flooding is also likely.
Our Forecast
Ida continues to move to the northwest. The overnight model guidance indicates that this track will continue. Models continue to converge upon a landfall somewhere between Lafayette and the mouth of the Mississippi River, with the greatest chance of landfall occurring between Morgan City and Houma. Our forecast track is largely unchanged from before. This takes Ida into the deepwater lease blocks today. Landfall is forecast to occur late tomorrow afternoon over southeast Louisiana. After landfall, Ida should slow and turn to the north and then the northeast. Our forecast takes Ida near Baton Rouge early Monday morning and then into the southeast United States.
Aircraft data indicated that the core of Ida was slightly disrupted by its passage over Cuba. This has kept the storm from intensifying over the past few hours. It is even possible that our estimate of 80 mph winds is generous. That said, the last pass through the center by the aircraft found a falling pressure, so perhaps Ida is starting to organize. Only gradual intensification over the next 6 to 12 hours is likely as the core recovers. Once the inner core recovers, rapid intensification will likely occur given how favorable the environment is. As Ida moves through the deepwater lease blocks, winds will likely be in the 100 mph to 110 mph range. By the time it reaches the SE Louisiana, winds are forecast to be 130 mph. After landfall, weakening should initially be slow due to the marshland that is over the south coast of Louisiana. More rapid weakening is expected once Ida moves north of the marshland. In addition to intensifying, Ida should become a bit larger. The combination of the intensity and size of Ida should result in a very high tidal surge over southeast Louisiana.
Our forecast keeps hurricane force winds a little west of New Orleans. However, Houma and Morgan City are expected to receive the worst of Ida. Baton Rouge is also at risk of receiving hurricane force winds.
Once inland, the focus will switch to inland flooding. The heaviest rains, which are forecast to be 10 to 15 inches with isolated 20 inch totals, are expected over southeast Louisiana, including Baton Rouge and New Orleans. However, up to a foot of rain could occur as far north as central Mississippi.
Expected Impacts on Land
Northern Gulf Coast: Severe to catastrophic wind and tidal surge damage is expected near where the eye makes landfall. Complete power outages, likely lasting for weeks, will likely occur for areas that experience the eyewall. Widespread power outages are expected even outside of the eyewall, along with some wind and surge damage. Flooding rains will create widespread street flooding and areas of flood damage.
Expected Impacts Offshore
Northwest Gulf of Mexico: Squalls could move into the southern deepwater lease areas offshore southeast and south-central Louisiana as early as noon. Squalls may continue across southeast Louisiana blocks through early Monday afternoon when Ida is well inland into Mississippi.
Our next advisory will be issued by 9 AM CDT
Hurricane Ida Advisory 11
Valid: 04:00 AM EDT Saturday August 28, 2021
Hurricane Ida Track Chart, Advisory #11
Current Location: 23.8N, 85.2W
Geographic Reference: 435 miles SE of Mouth of MS River
Movement: Northwest at 15 mph
Max Winds: 80 mph gusting to 100 mph
Current Hurricane Severity Index: 8 out of a possible 50 points (3 size, 5 intensity)
Max Predicted Hurricane Severity Index: 23 out of a possible 50 points (8 size, 15 intensity)
Current Radius of Tropical Storm-Force Winds: 115 miles
Max Predicted Radius of Tropical Storm-Force Winds: 150 miles
Organizational Trend: Steady
Forecast Confidence: Above Average
Estimated Central Pressure: 986 mb
Key Points
1. There has been little change to the track or intensity forecast.
2. Severe damage from both wind and tidal surge is expected for southeast Louisiana.
3. Hurricane force winds are possible in Baton Rouge.
4. Inland flooding is also likely.
Our Forecast
Ida continues to move to the northwest. The overnight model guidance indicates that this track will continue. Models continue to converge upon a landfall somewhere between Lafayette and the mouth of the Mississippi River, with the greatest chance of landfall occurring between Morgan City and Houma. Our forecast track is largely unchanged from before. This takes Ida into the deepwater lease blocks today. Landfall is forecast to occur late tomorrow afternoon over southeast Louisiana. After landfall, Ida should slow and turn to the north and then the northeast. Our forecast takes Ida near Baton Rouge early Monday morning and then into the southeast United States.
Aircraft data indicated that the core of Ida was slightly disrupted by its passage over Cuba. This has kept the storm from intensifying over the past few hours. It is even possible that our estimate of 80 mph winds is generous. That said, the last pass through the center by the aircraft found a falling pressure, so perhaps Ida is starting to organize. Only gradual intensification over the next 6 to 12 hours is likely as the core recovers. Once the inner core recovers, rapid intensification will likely occur given how favorable the environment is. As Ida moves through the deepwater lease blocks, winds will likely be in the 100 mph to 110 mph range. By the time it reaches the SE Louisiana, winds are forecast to be 130 mph. After landfall, weakening should initially be slow due to the marshland that is over the south coast of Louisiana. More rapid weakening is expected once Ida moves north of the marshland. In addition to intensifying, Ida should become a bit larger. The combination of the intensity and size of Ida should result in a very high tidal surge over southeast Louisiana.
Our forecast keeps hurricane force winds a little west of New Orleans. However, Houma and Morgan City are expected to receive the worst of Ida. Baton Rouge is also at risk of receiving hurricane force winds.
Once inland, the focus will switch to inland flooding. The heaviest rains, which are forecast to be 10 to 15 inches with isolated 20 inch totals, are expected over southeast Louisiana, including Baton Rouge and New Orleans. However, up to a foot of rain could occur as far north as central Mississippi.
Expected Impacts on Land
Northern Gulf Coast: Severe to catastrophic wind and tidal surge damage is expected near where the eye makes landfall. Complete power outages, likely lasting for weeks, will likely occur for areas that experience the eyewall. Widespread power outages are expected even outside of the eyewall, along with some wind and surge damage. Flooding rains will create widespread street flooding and areas of flood damage.
Expected Impacts Offshore
Northwest Gulf of Mexico: Squalls could move into the southern deepwater lease areas offshore southeast and south-central Louisiana as early as noon. Squalls may continue across southeast Louisiana blocks through early Monday afternoon when Ida is well inland into Mississippi.
Our next advisory will be issued by 9 AM CDT
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