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Looks like it may rain #2958395
08/28/21 04:17 PM
08/28/21 04:17 PM
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Mardi Gras-Land
340SIX Offline OP
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This is from a private forecasting service an offshore company pays dearly for. I have found their forecasts to be dead on accurate.


Hurricane Ida Advisory 11
Valid: 04:00 AM EDT Saturday August 28, 2021
Hurricane Ida Track Chart, Advisory #11


Current Location: 23.8N, 85.2W
Geographic Reference: 435 miles SE of Mouth of MS River
Movement: Northwest at 15 mph
Max Winds: 80 mph gusting to 100 mph
Current Hurricane Severity Index: 8 out of a possible 50 points (3 size, 5 intensity)
Max Predicted Hurricane Severity Index: 23 out of a possible 50 points (8 size, 15 intensity)
Current Radius of Tropical Storm-Force Winds: 115 miles
Max Predicted Radius of Tropical Storm-Force Winds: 150 miles
Organizational Trend: Steady
Forecast Confidence: Above Average
Estimated Central Pressure: 986 mb

Key Points
1. There has been little change to the track or intensity forecast.
2. Severe damage from both wind and tidal surge is expected for southeast Louisiana.
3. Hurricane force winds are possible in Baton Rouge.
4. Inland flooding is also likely.

Our Forecast
Ida continues to move to the northwest. The overnight model guidance indicates that this track will continue. Models continue to converge upon a landfall somewhere between Lafayette and the mouth of the Mississippi River, with the greatest chance of landfall occurring between Morgan City and Houma. Our forecast track is largely unchanged from before. This takes Ida into the deepwater lease blocks today. Landfall is forecast to occur late tomorrow afternoon over southeast Louisiana. After landfall, Ida should slow and turn to the north and then the northeast. Our forecast takes Ida near Baton Rouge early Monday morning and then into the southeast United States.

Aircraft data indicated that the core of Ida was slightly disrupted by its passage over Cuba. This has kept the storm from intensifying over the past few hours. It is even possible that our estimate of 80 mph winds is generous. That said, the last pass through the center by the aircraft found a falling pressure, so perhaps Ida is starting to organize. Only gradual intensification over the next 6 to 12 hours is likely as the core recovers. Once the inner core recovers, rapid intensification will likely occur given how favorable the environment is. As Ida moves through the deepwater lease blocks, winds will likely be in the 100 mph to 110 mph range. By the time it reaches the SE Louisiana, winds are forecast to be 130 mph. After landfall, weakening should initially be slow due to the marshland that is over the south coast of Louisiana. More rapid weakening is expected once Ida moves north of the marshland. In addition to intensifying, Ida should become a bit larger. The combination of the intensity and size of Ida should result in a very high tidal surge over southeast Louisiana.

Our forecast keeps hurricane force winds a little west of New Orleans. However, Houma and Morgan City are expected to receive the worst of Ida. Baton Rouge is also at risk of receiving hurricane force winds.

Once inland, the focus will switch to inland flooding. The heaviest rains, which are forecast to be 10 to 15 inches with isolated 20 inch totals, are expected over southeast Louisiana, including Baton Rouge and New Orleans. However, up to a foot of rain could occur as far north as central Mississippi.

Expected Impacts on Land
Northern Gulf Coast: Severe to catastrophic wind and tidal surge damage is expected near where the eye makes landfall. Complete power outages, likely lasting for weeks, will likely occur for areas that experience the eyewall. Widespread power outages are expected even outside of the eyewall, along with some wind and surge damage. Flooding rains will create widespread street flooding and areas of flood damage.

Expected Impacts Offshore
Northwest Gulf of Mexico: Squalls could move into the southern deepwater lease areas offshore southeast and south-central Louisiana as early as noon. Squalls may continue across southeast Louisiana blocks through early Monday afternoon when Ida is well inland into Mississippi.

Our next advisory will be issued by 9 AM CDT

Re: Looks like it may rain [Re: 340SIX] #2958399
08/28/21 04:26 PM
08/28/21 04:26 PM
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United Socialist States of Ame...
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tboomer Online work
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Stay safe Kevin! wave


The end is near.....
Re: Looks like it may rain [Re: tboomer] #2958406
08/28/21 04:50 PM
08/28/21 04:50 PM
Joined: Jan 2003
Posts: 26,644
Mardi Gras-Land
340SIX Offline OP
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Mardi Gras-Land
9 months ago bought a nice Honda powered 13HP gen with electric start.
Display said dead bath not even thinking ordered a new batt. Stick it in says dead battery.
Test battery 13.something bolts. Checked at starter same volt but no start.
He h support says do nothing bring it in. Guy says,takes a week from looking at it order parts and fix.
Called back 1
5 weeks later guy says can not lol at it for 5 to 6 weeks it is in line to be looked at be lucky to get it back in 8 weeks from.drop off.
Called tech and said get on them never heard back.
It ran the whole home well.
So I got out the 4000 watt I bought in 1992 in 2008 it ran 7 days balls to the wall.
B&S 8hp cast iron sleeve, dont make am like that no more.

Re: Looks like it may rain [Re: 340SIX] #2958437
08/28/21 06:19 PM
08/28/21 06:19 PM
Joined: Jan 2006
Posts: 6,589
USA
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360view Offline
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I am worried that there will be rapid intensification just before landfall due to a very hot water eddy just off shore southwest Louisiana.

Our family has just talked my niece into driving to Houston, she reports traffic westbound is slowed to a crawl.

Re: Looks like it may rain [Re: 340SIX] #2958464
08/28/21 08:07 PM
08/28/21 08:07 PM
Joined: Jan 2003
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Here
DirectSubjection Online penguin-006
Tacohead. The First and Only
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Good luck Kevin! Stay safe luck

PS - I just refound the Kodak photodisk you sent of your house being lifted, so cool!


Ride eternal, shiny and chrome
Re: Looks like it may rain [Re: DirectSubjection] #2958479
08/28/21 08:35 PM
08/28/21 08:35 PM
Joined: Jan 2003
Posts: 26,644
Mardi Gras-Land
340SIX Offline OP
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Originally Posted by DirectSubjection
Good luck Kevin! Stay safe luck

PS - I just refound the Kodak photodisk you sent of your house being lifted, so cool!

Between that and the Cat 5 roll-down shutters, I am hoping for the best. Side note} This storm is also hitting the same day as Katrina as it was 8/29/2005 Crazy

Re: Looks like it may rain [Re: 340SIX] #2958484
08/28/21 08:40 PM
08/28/21 08:40 PM
Joined: Feb 2005
Posts: 18,421
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Stay safe everyone


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Edelbrock headed 408
6.143@110.85 mph
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422 Indy headed small block
5.982@112.56 mph
9.42@138.27

Livin and lovin life one day at a time




Re: Looks like it may rain [Re: 340SIX] #2958488
08/28/21 08:53 PM
08/28/21 08:53 PM
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DirectSubjection Online penguin-006
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Originally Posted by 340SIX
Originally Posted by DirectSubjection
Good luck Kevin! Stay safe luck

PS - I just refound the Kodak photodisk you sent of your house being lifted, so cool!

Between that and the Cat 5 roll-down shutters, I am hoping for the best. Side note} This storm is also hitting the same day as Katrina as it was 8/29/2005 Crazy


shocked


Ride eternal, shiny and chrome
Re: Looks like it may rain [Re: DirectSubjection] #2958505
08/28/21 10:00 PM
08/28/21 10:00 PM
Joined: Dec 2005
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Home
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SRT6776 Offline
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Be safe guys


Re: Looks like it may rain [Re: 340SIX] #2958549
08/29/21 01:23 AM
08/29/21 01:23 AM
Joined: Jul 2007
Posts: 4,272
Wills Point, Texas
Hugh Jorgan Offline
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This storm is also hitting the same day as Katrina as it was 8/29/2005


shock

Re: Looks like it may rain [Re: 360view] #2958569
08/29/21 06:38 AM
08/29/21 06:38 AM
Joined: Jan 2006
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150 MPH even worse than I guessed

Predicted track trending East

I hope the improvements to levees and pumps had good design and construction,
but my gut keep whispering no.....

There is plenty of sand and gravel flowing down the Mississippi river to fill low areas.

Re: Looks like it may rain [Re: 360view] #2958623
08/29/21 10:02 AM
08/29/21 10:02 AM
Joined: Jan 2003
Posts: 26,644
Mardi Gras-Land
340SIX Offline OP
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Wind gust at 45 to 50 right now here in Kenner and power off but back on.
Not even close to us yet.
Told Crystal wonder what a 3 4 bed with 4 car garage in As etc cost.

20210829_095629.jpg20210829_095537.jpg
Re: Looks like it may rain [Re: 340SIX] #2958648
08/29/21 10:52 AM
08/29/21 10:52 AM
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Posts: 1,779
N.W. Florida
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Last edited by Fat_Mike; 08/29/21 10:55 AM.
Re: Looks like it may rain [Re: 340SIX] #2958659
08/29/21 11:08 AM
08/29/21 11:08 AM
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W. Kentucky
justinp61 Online content
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Take care.

Re: Looks like it may rain [Re: justinp61] #2958683
08/29/21 12:22 PM
08/29/21 12:22 PM
Joined: Jan 2003
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NJ
rdrnr6970 Offline
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Hey be careful my wife and I are praying for you guys.


OWNER OF EVERYTHING FROM 1956 300 B,IMPERIAL,NEW YORKER HEMIS,AND NEW HEMI TRUCKS.....5TH GENRAMS.COM... 1969/70 ROADRUNNERS ,DARTS/CORONETS, NORTHEAST HEMI OWNERS ASSOCIATION.....WWW.PHANTASMCUDAS.COM....MOPAR FAMILY FOR 50 YEARS AND STILL GOING!MOPAR OWNER COAST TO COAST!!!!
Re: Looks like it may rain [Re: rdrnr6970] #2958730
08/29/21 02:43 PM
08/29/21 02:43 PM
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Florida STAYcation
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pInKsTeR. How you doin ?


tsk ..... Village idiot huh ? .... come out from your hiding place and let us GO .... tow 2 TOE ! biggrin
Re: Looks like it may rain [Re: dOc - 3.0 !] #2958905
08/30/21 04:07 AM
08/30/21 04:07 AM
Joined: Jan 2003
Posts: 26,644
Mardi Gras-Land
340SIX Offline OP
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It was a tie or worse than 2005. At least in my location.
But we were better prepared. 12 plus hours almost non stop.
Lost power right after I posted this morn. Weather was to bad to bust the generator up.
Is now and went right to work ckeaning up downed trees and small parts of them. Major mess.
No water as they say broke and losing 1/4 million gallons per min
Ripped my roof, and many others, my fire place pipe and cap gone. Siding some gone.
Mr Briggs and Stratton rolling along makeing power and look like he will be for some time.

Re: Looks like it may rain [Re: 340SIX] #2958907
08/30/21 04:42 AM
08/30/21 04:42 AM
Joined: Jan 2003
Posts: 10,142
NJ
rdrnr6970 Offline
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Sorry to hear about the damage glad to hear you guys are okay stay safe all the best John and Ellie

Last edited by rdrnr6970; 08/30/21 04:45 AM.

OWNER OF EVERYTHING FROM 1956 300 B,IMPERIAL,NEW YORKER HEMIS,AND NEW HEMI TRUCKS.....5TH GENRAMS.COM... 1969/70 ROADRUNNERS ,DARTS/CORONETS, NORTHEAST HEMI OWNERS ASSOCIATION.....WWW.PHANTASMCUDAS.COM....MOPAR FAMILY FOR 50 YEARS AND STILL GOING!MOPAR OWNER COAST TO COAST!!!!
Re: Looks like it may rain [Re: rdrnr6970] #2958909
08/30/21 04:51 AM
08/30/21 04:51 AM
Joined: Jul 2004
Posts: 12,783
Tulsa, Oklahoma
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Re: Looks like it may rain [Re: 340SIX] #2958910
08/30/21 05:08 AM
08/30/21 05:08 AM
Joined: Jan 2003
Posts: 1,514
Land of the Brave, Home of the...
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Originally Posted by 340SIX
It was a tie or worse than 2005. At least in my location.
But we were better prepared. 12 plus hours almost non stop.
Lost power right after I posted this morn. Weather was to bad to bust the generator up.
Is now and went right to work ckeaning up downed trees and small parts of them. Major mess.
No water as they say broke and losing 1/4 million gallons per min
Ripped my roof, and many others, my fire place pipe and cap gone. Siding some gone.
Mr Briggs and Stratton rolling along makeing power and look like he will be for some time.


Glad you're safe and are making some power. Hang in there.

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