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Re: who is bailing on stocks? [Re: AndyF] #2773496
05/11/20 12:30 PM
05/11/20 12:30 PM
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St. Louis, Missouri area
Cometstorm Offline
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Originally Posted by AndyF
I've been using the latest run up to exit most of my positions. I see no reason to be invested now. We're looking at some serious damage to the economy over the next 12 months so I don't see any reason to own stocks while all of that gets sorted out. I'll get back into the market once things settle down. I don't really know why the market has been moving up so strongly the past few weeks. Someone big is betting on a quick return to normal but everything I see and hear tells me that a lot of little guys are in the process of being wiped out. So I'll just wait this one out. I really don't need to take a bunch of risk for a small reward at this point in my life.


I certainly understand the apprehension, and everyone not only dances to their own drum, but has their own risk tolerances, age, and a host of other factors.

Personally, I feel a well diversified portfolio is my way to go (with at least a five year hold outlook) i’m positioned about 25% cash and CD’d, maybe 5% gold/silver, and the rest widely scattered in the open market, with some high rated short term bonds.

Even “cash” can be eaten away, if overt inflation rears its ugly head. With all the money being mass printed, that has to be considered.

With the Great Depression, two world wars, real estate meltdown, dot com collapse etc, etc. it always looks darkest in the middle of whatever crisis.

“But THIS TIME is different!” Some truth in that, but I believe we WILL get through this.

If not, investment decisions probably won’t matter.

Only the basic survival needs will count. I put that likelihood WAY down the list,

Re: who is bailing on stocks? [Re: Cometstorm] #2773637
05/11/20 06:45 PM
05/11/20 06:45 PM
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It does depend on the circumstances. If a person has a portfolio in a taxable account then I wouldn't recommend selling, especially if they have enough cash to ride out the next couple of years. But for someone with tax deferred accounts I don't see a good reason to remain invested while all of this gets sorted out. Move it to cash and just wait and see. Portfolios don't mean much in a panic since everything goes down. Mutual funds can be hard to sell in a panic and even safe money market funds can have problems. We saw issues like that in 2008 and again in 2020. Muni bonds can be blown up fairly easily and so can corporate bonds. There will be a lot of bankruptcies coming out of this so a bunch of bonds will get blown up over the next 18 months.

Re: who is bailing on stocks? [Re: AndyF] #2780602
06/02/20 09:33 AM
06/02/20 09:33 AM
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Des Moines IA
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So how do people feel now?

I had a new account with TD Ameritrade in the later part of March. I wasn't going to wait 3 months or longer to start trading, however I did keep a large portion in cash because people kept saying it would get worse. Now that the shock and awe of Covid 19 has worn off I don't think there will be another huge crash, even if earnings reports are lower. That may already be built into the price.

I did some things wrong and some things right.

I bought UCO too soon and never thought oil could go below $0. I bought it several times at different price points, including the day oil was below $0. This was going to be my big money maker. I'm still in the hole but I'm in for the long haul. I was much further in the hole for a while. The current price of oil is unsustainable and nobody in the business wants the price to remain where it is.

Since I was losing in oil and that was going to be my main focus, I decided to diversify. I bought URTY on April 1st for $17.22/share. It is currently trading at $32.37/share (over 87% gain). I don't think I'll be losing money on this for a long time. Unfortunately, I didn't buy enough. Hindsight is almost 20:20.

Now it feels too late to put the rest of the cash into the market, unless there is a recession coming or another large drop. It doesn't seem as likely as people were predicting 2 months ago.


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Re: who is bailing on stocks? [Re: Soopernaut] #2780625
06/02/20 10:36 AM
06/02/20 10:36 AM
Joined: Dec 2007
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Puttin' on the foil in Charles...
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I've done really well with PGR and Ford. I sold my Moderna near the height, and boy, am I glad I did. Took a $1k gamble on Akorn and got burned. Made a few bucks on KTOV.

My 401k has bounced back nicely. I've recovered about 75% of my losses there. The college funds are about back to where they were. Not quite, but close.


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Re: who is bailing on stocks? [Re: not_a_charger] #2780684
06/02/20 12:35 PM
06/02/20 12:35 PM
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Minnesota
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I made about 60% in a day on a small amount with some put options on Tesla. I wish I would have predicted the reversal and bought some call, but I thought it was going lower. Other than that, I'm still on the sidelines. I might start getting back in, but I don't have time to study individual stock buys right now. Maybe get into an S&P index and a NASDAQ index?


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Re: who is bailing on stocks? [Re: Hemi_Joel] #2780824
06/02/20 05:40 PM
06/02/20 05:40 PM
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Virginia
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I'm still surprised the bottom (if that was the bottom) came as early as it did. We didn't know what we were into in mid-March. Of course, maybe it was the lack of information that drove it so low in the first place.

Re: who is bailing on stocks? [Re: BSharp] #2781075
06/03/20 02:15 PM
06/03/20 02:15 PM
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Sac, CA
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^^^ I agree. Especially considering the current 'unemployment' rates.

On a side note, do you guys use a specific software to track your investments? I use Fidelity and Schwab as my brokerages and would like to set-up something where I can track performance, dividends and dates, etc. What do you guys use?

Re: who is bailing on stocks? [Re: mopowers] #2781085
06/03/20 02:32 PM
06/03/20 02:32 PM
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Oregon
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Honestly, I think it's going to dive again. A lot of people are still not working, and the extended benefits are going to run out at some point. Congress seems to not care to extend anything either. And that was before all of the protests.

It does show how disconnected Wall Street is from Main Street though, and why we can't necessarily say that everyone is doing fine just because the stock market is up.


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Re: who is bailing on stocks? [Re: hooziewhatsit] #2782013
06/06/20 09:23 AM
06/06/20 09:23 AM
Joined: Dec 2007
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Puttin' on the foil in Charles...
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My 401k is up about $97k since Jan 1, but is down about $45k from it's all-time high, which was in late Feb or early March, I think?

I sold everything in my brokerage account yesterday. Took my profits and went home PGR and Ford were good to me.


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Re: who is bailing on stocks? [Re: not_a_charger] #2782028
06/06/20 10:03 AM
06/06/20 10:03 AM
Joined: Jan 2003
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St. Louis, Missouri area
Cometstorm Offline
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Originally Posted by not_a_charger
My 401k is up about $97k since Jan 1, but is down about $45k from it's all-time high, which was in late Feb or early March, I think?

I sold everything in my brokerage account yesterday. Took my profits and went home PGR and Ford were good to me.


Interesting...

Are you out permanently, or do you plan on getting back in at some point.

If so, what do you plan for the future?

Not trying to be nosy, just curious.

Re: who is bailing on stocks? [Re: not_a_charger] #2782041
06/06/20 10:37 AM
06/06/20 10:37 AM
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NC
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Originally Posted by not_a_charger
My 401k is up about $97k since Jan 1, but is down about $45k from it's all-time high, which was in late Feb or early March, I think?

I sold everything in my brokerage account yesterday. Took my profits and went home PGR and Ford were good to me.
Sounds like you did well. Selling everything is a big move. Even if the market goes down a few percent in the next couple months, most people can't get back in fast enough (calling the bottom) and miss most of the initial move to the upside. Research shows that most of the yearly gains are made on only a few days, and if you were out those days, you underperform for the year. Most people.


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Re: who is bailing on stocks? [Re: 440Jim] #2782045
06/06/20 10:44 AM
06/06/20 10:44 AM
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NC
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I was lucky enough to buy some Boeing stock on 5/4, $126. I missed the bottom around $96. But I am happy with the 62% gain since 5/4. Plan a long term holding of that company. I expect $300 in 18 months or less (never a straight line move up or down).

Bought some Microsoft on 3/16/2020, $141. It is up 32% since then. Again I plan a long term holding.

The low on the S&P 500 index was 3/23/2020. It has recovered in 3 months. That wasn’t long to wait for a recovery for somebody that just sat tight and held.
I think the 2008 financial crisis took close to 3 years to recover.

Hemi_Joel (2/27/2020) well the S&P is up 7.2% since then. Glad I didn’t bail out completely like he did.
Cracked_back (4/6/2020) he wasn’t sold on the rebound. But the S&P is up 28% since then. He missed it.


1993 Daytona, 5.50 at 130mph (1/8) 1.19 sixty ft (PG). Link to 572 B1 - Part 1
Re: who is bailing on stocks? [Re: Cometstorm] #2782077
06/06/20 12:05 PM
06/06/20 12:05 PM
Joined: Dec 2007
Posts: 19,774
Puttin' on the foil in Charles...
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Originally Posted by Cometstorm
Originally Posted by not_a_charger
My 401k is up about $97k since Jan 1, but is down about $45k from it's all-time high, which was in late Feb or early March, I think?

I sold everything in my brokerage account yesterday. Took my profits and went home PGR and Ford were good to me.


Interesting...

Are you out permanently, or do you plan on getting back in at some point.

If so, what do you plan for the future?

Not trying to be nosy, just curious.


My brokerage account is not my primary source of investment/savings. I have a 401k, my wife and I have Roths, my wife has a pension and a 403b, and we have 529s for the kids, plus a savings account, and 2 CDs for each kid. The $$ I put into my brokerage account was $$ that I could afford to take a risk with. Some of it worked, some did not. Overall, I did pretty well. We're about to drop about $40k into remodeling part of our house, so the $$ that was in the brokerage account is going to be put to use there. I am sure I will get back in at some point, but I'm happy with how it turned out.


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Re: who is bailing on stocks? [Re: 440Jim] #2782078
06/06/20 12:06 PM
06/06/20 12:06 PM
Joined: Dec 2007
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not_a_charger Offline
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Originally Posted by 440Jim
Originally Posted by not_a_charger
My 401k is up about $97k since Jan 1, but is down about $45k from it's all-time high, which was in late Feb or early March, I think?

I sold everything in my brokerage account yesterday. Took my profits and went home PGR and Ford were good to me.
Sounds like you did well. Selling everything is a big move. Even if the market goes down a few percent in the next couple months, most people can't get back in fast enough (calling the bottom) and miss most of the initial move to the upside. Research shows that most of the yearly gains are made on only a few days, and if you were out those days, you underperform for the year. Most people.


By "everything," I meant just what I had in my brokerage account. See above.

Nice move with Boeing. I hope that pays off handsomely for you. thumbs


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Re: who is bailing on stocks? [Re: not_a_charger] #2782101
06/06/20 12:50 PM
06/06/20 12:50 PM
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central il.
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second 70 Offline
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Between the feds and the white house they have printed and added over 7 trillion to the economy. Sure the market is going up with the extra free money and 0 interest rates and will continue to rise. Your currency has been devalued. Unless the virus makes a huge come back it's not correcting anytime soon. Once the layoffs start after the PPP reaches the time they don't have to pay back the loans it could get interesting.

I made $79K last month and am positive for a year. As I stated back in March it's an election year and the S & P will be back over 3,000 by the election and here it is.

Re: who is bailing on stocks? [Re: 440Jim] #2782265
06/06/20 09:12 PM
06/06/20 09:12 PM
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Oregon
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I think now is an excellent time to cash out anything that is in a tax deferred account. A taxable account is a different issue and would require some thought. The market has bounced back strong but valuations are super high and demand is really low so something is going to have to give. My gut tells me that there will be a break down in the market and once it starts heading down there won't be much to stop it this time. I'm staying on the sidelines for now.

Re: who is bailing on stocks? [Re: 440Jim] #2782300
06/07/20 01:23 AM
06/07/20 01:23 AM
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Originally Posted by 440Jim

Cracked_back (4/6/2020) he wasn’t sold on the rebound. But the S&P is up 28% since then. He missed it.



Still not sold and this is ALL fed pump on low volume. The big players aren't in this and JMO, that should create some uneasiness. If the volume was higher and strong on up days, I might be convinced.

I'm not a buy and hold guy, don't give two piles of dung about how far up the market is from the lows. I trade an entirely different style and the gains I have dwarf any of the index market rebound. Some days I'll make 10%+ and the market is flat or down. The general trend is always up though for the longer term buy/hold folks. It's always wise to pay attention to the trend.

I did buy some LEAPS on BA when it was sub $100, so that's my long term approach.

Lots of ways to make a buck in the market.




Last edited by crackedback; 06/07/20 01:25 AM.
Re: who is bailing on stocks? [Re: crackedback] #2782318
06/07/20 07:18 AM
06/07/20 07:18 AM
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ohio
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I rode out the storm for the most part. Was down close to 40 percent back in March, now have recovered to 95 percent of previous high.

Only changes I made was to double down on some of my worst performers and buy a handful of things that seemed like a good buy.

I might offload some of my tech stocks soon, they enjoyed quite a boost these last 2 quarters but once life resumes normal I expect them to drop back as people aren't forced to stay home and surf the net.

I might use those funds to buy airline stock. But im waiting to see how they're doing. It will be a long term purchase.

As for the general economy I believe it will come back, people have had a taste of a pretty great economy for the last 3 years, something that many have never experienced, looking at you millennials and minorities.


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