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Re: The official Coronavirus thread [Re: AndyF] #2777790
05/24/20 07:52 PM
05/24/20 07:52 PM
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Not posted to detract from the data you linked. Data looks at where we've been and is helpful in developing hypotheses. I've become uncertain the data being provided is accurate and may be incomplete. Trends can still be a good for general info.
Looking to where we are going is very difficult to nearly impossible. Except, what I am seeing happening this weekend is almost certain to increase the foothold the virus has on our country. The push by some to "un-distance" and to endorse some optional activities is baffling to me. It's apparent all we know about transmission is doing little to dissuade social interaction at several well attended events across the country.
It is now reported 0.5% of US population has been tested positive and just shy of 6% of those have died. I would not be surprised if in a couple weeks we see a marked increase in positive tests. I'm finding it difficult to find what percentage of the population has been tested (not total tests given as there are re-tests).
I think being aware and reducing opportunities to be exposed is better than any medicine now available With no vaccine why risk unnecessary exposure?

Re: The official Coronavirus thread [Re: srt] #2777795
05/24/20 08:08 PM
05/24/20 08:08 PM
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central ohio
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nss guy Offline
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I would like to see the number of all deaths in the US no mater the cause for April 2019 vs April 2020. I think this would give a more accurate picture of what impact Covid-19 has had.

Re: The official Coronavirus thread [Re: srt] #2777798
05/24/20 08:10 PM
05/24/20 08:10 PM
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"Little"John
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It was strange on the evening news tonight to hear of a sports player that died of natural causes. Someone will probably get fired over that one.


1970 Duster
Edelbrock headed 408
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422 Indy headed small block
5.982@112.56 mph
9.42@138.27

Livin and lovin life one day at a time




Re: The official Coronavirus thread [Re: nss guy] #2777813
05/24/20 08:40 PM
05/24/20 08:40 PM
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Oregon
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Originally Posted by nss guy
I would like to see the number of all deaths in the US no mater the cause for April 2019 vs April 2020. I think this would give a more accurate picture of what impact Covid-19 has had.


52,000 deaths above average in the USA according to the Financial Times data set. Others might quibble with the numbers but I would imagine the FT numbers are pretty good. In Oregon we're about 2% above average. On an average day in Oregon the death rate was around 100 people per day. Now it is running around 102 people per day. So not a very large increase in Oregon. NY had a big jump up from average deaths but other states have had zero impact to their average daily death rates.

https://www.ft.com/content/a26fbf7e-48f8-11ea-aeb3-955839e06441

Re: The official Coronavirus thread [Re: nss guy] #2777814
05/24/20 08:43 PM
05/24/20 08:43 PM
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Oregon
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Originally Posted by nss guy
I would like to see the number of all deaths in the US no mater the cause for April 2019 vs April 2020. I think this would give a more accurate picture of what impact Covid-19 has had.


Here is the Oregon death rate data. They provide historical data so you can look at a three year average or a five year average to compare to 2020. It isn't very scary when you look at the graph: https://public.tableau.com/profile/oha.center.for.health.statistics#!/vizhome/OregonHealthAuthorityCenterforHealthStatisticsWeeklydeathgraph/Dash-weeklydeaths


Last edited by AndyF; 05/24/20 08:43 PM.
Re: The official Coronavirus thread [Re: nss guy] #2777891
05/25/20 01:09 AM
05/25/20 01:09 AM
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Phoenix, AZ
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Originally Posted by nss guy
I would like to see the number of all deaths in the US no mater the cause for April 2019 vs April 2020. I think this would give a more accurate picture of what impact Covid-19 has had.


Excellent idea. My suspicion is that the overall death count will be less this year as compared to 2019.

Re: The official Coronavirus thread [Re: AndyF] #2777893
05/25/20 01:16 AM
05/25/20 01:16 AM
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Jefferson State
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Analyzing from year to year is interesting. To get a picture of what coronavirus effect on the rate an adjustment would need to be made on prior years data.
Deaths from expected illness/disease may remain constant while illness from predominately non-illness/disease (workplace, traffic, weekend warrior, etc.) would likely need adjustment downward as those activities are in a reduced state. In fairness suicide, drinking and drug use may be increasing. I'm surprised it's not been suggested those types of deaths are being included in the cv tally.
The data building is rife for both suspicion and abuse. I mentioned early in this thread only well after the pandemic is fading from daily news will we know the real number of lives lost.
Personally I do not completely understand the infatuation and fear of manipulation of numbers. This virus is deadly and people will be the consumable until we find the vaccine. Forget herd immunity for now, we are not 1% of the way there, and we are close to 100k deaths. To develop a vaccine at best 12 to 18 months of data will amass. The run-up and stabilization of ill and fatalities (march to now) generated 100k in 3 months. Data says in 12 to 18 months anywhere from 250k to 700k (using the current rate projections).
Of course asymptomatic carriers and possibility of mutations could reduce or expand the range. I'll leave it to the experts fo fine tune their already wildly swinging projections. Many projections suggest by early August 150k (models from early April estimated 88k to 150k. With the "setting the herd loose" social/scientific experiment underway will there be new projections?

Re: The official Coronavirus thread [Re: srt] #2777895
05/25/20 01:22 AM
05/25/20 01:22 AM
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Phoenix, AZ
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Vaccine?
Oh, yeah. I'll be sure to willingly submit myself to that. down

Re: The official Coronavirus thread [Re: Jjs72D] #2777899
05/25/20 01:48 AM
05/25/20 01:48 AM
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Everyone has two choices as to how they may be exposed.
Vaccine, or no vaccine. With no vaccine there is the risk of becoming ill.
Granted there are problems with some vaccines.
I would not want to be in the first few trials or batches.
If proved safe it's a viable method to avoid the illness.

Re: The official Coronavirus thread [Re: srt] #2777911
05/25/20 04:19 AM
05/25/20 04:19 AM
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Phoenix, AZ
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There is a risk of Tuberculosis. There is a risk of Ebola. For guys that are active, there is a risk for STDs.
Life is full of risks.
Get busy living or get busy dying.

Re: The official Coronavirus thread [Re: 360view] #2777943
05/25/20 09:24 AM
05/25/20 09:24 AM
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USA
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360view Offline
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35% of all those infected with COVID-19 do not show symptoms.

0.4% is for all ages combined
is the fatality rate for COVID-19,
for the 65% of those that first show symptoms
says USA CDC
after quite complicated analysis.

Ages 65+ fatality rate for those who show symptoms is 1.3%

Ages 65+ “have to go to the hospital for treatment” rate is 7.4%

Ages 0-49 fatality rate for those who show symptoms is a very low 0.05%
which is about half the normal yearly average influenza fatality rate.

Note in the report “ratios” rather than percentages are given so that there is a factor of hundred difference.
Example: 0.01 is given rather than 1%

https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/hcp/planning-scenarios.html

Last edited by 360view; 05/26/20 05:01 AM. Reason: Percents from ratios
Re: The official Coronavirus thread [Re: 360view] #2778001
05/25/20 11:29 AM
05/25/20 11:29 AM
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USA
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Major effect of today’s flu vaccines is to greatly lessen your chance of dying, even though vaccinated still have 40 to 60% chance of some milder episode of flu illness.

There is a fear that future COVID-19 vaccines will turn out similar:
less death
but still an episode of illness....

https://www.statnews.com/2020/05/22...m_term=0_8cab1d7961-ff37996f74-152004137

Re: The official Coronavirus thread [Re: 360view] #2778005
05/25/20 11:32 AM
05/25/20 11:32 AM
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I’m on the they would have to force me to get a vaccine list. Then again I don’t get the yearly vaccines that they push every year either.


1970 Duster
Edelbrock headed 408
5.984@112.52
422 Indy headed small block
5.982@112.56 mph
9.42@138.27

Livin and lovin life one day at a time




Re: The official Coronavirus thread [Re: Jjs72D] #2778009
05/25/20 11:40 AM
05/25/20 11:40 AM
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Originally Posted by Jjs72D
Originally Posted by nss guy
I would like to see the number of all deaths in the US no mater the cause for April 2019 vs April 2020. I think this would give a more accurate picture of what impact Covid-19 has had.


Excellent idea. My suspicion is that the overall death count will be less this year as compared to 2019.


ehh, I'm not so sure.

CDC deaths/excess deaths charts:
https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/excess_deaths.htm


If you ever find yourself in a fair fight, your tactics suck.
Re: The official Coronavirus thread [Re: hooziewhatsit] #2778015
05/25/20 11:50 AM
05/25/20 11:50 AM
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Jefferson State
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Is there a way to change the graph to show that most recent 8 weeks?

Re: The official Coronavirus thread [Re: hooziewhatsit] #2778031
05/25/20 12:37 PM
05/25/20 12:37 PM
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Originally Posted by hooziewhatsit
Originally Posted by Jjs72D
Originally Posted by nss guy
I would like to see the number of all deaths in the US no mater the cause for April 2019 vs April 2020. I think this would give a more accurate picture of what impact Covid-19 has had.


Excellent idea. My suspicion is that the overall death count will be less this year as compared to 2019.


ehh, I'm not so sure.

CDC deaths/excess deaths charts:
https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/excess_deaths.htm

So based on reading how the CDC came up with that chart for this year, it's basically weighted guesswork, based on all the other inaccurate numbers reported this year. Real numbers are not going to be anywhere near as high as that chart shows in the end, if they use accurate numbers (assuming they ever get any)...

For one... if the numbers shown in that chart ARE anywhere close to being accurate, then covid deaths would be in the 100's of thousands already. Look at the 2018 figures when flu/pneumonia killed between 60-80k by this time... and compare it to this year when flu/pneumonia already killed 24k, and was projected to hit 60k when the CDC decided to stop counting, plus 100k covid(they say) that roughly 45-50k difference... Yet 2018 was a normal year... with normal traffic deaths & average murder rates. While official counts won't be available for 2 or 3 yrs... every news report I've seen says so far murder rates Feb-May are way down. Even the gangs aren't killing each other as often, and traffic deaths are virtually non-existent, since no one was driving in March & April...(So far so, that car Insurance Companies are actually giving people money BACK) I'm sure people are still dying of natural causes (heart attack/stoke/old age/falls)... but accidental deaths from Factories, Construction & Elective Surgeries are going to be way down, because most factories & construction stopped, and there have been no Elective Surgeries for 2+months.... So Covid would have to be making up for all of those normal expected deaths.... PLUS virus deaths to get the big increase it is showing... I'm not buying it.

Although I'm sure suicides are going to start ramping up in April-June... as people who have lost it all because of our Governors mismanagement over lock-down rules, throw in the towel. (My wife's bummed because she stopped by the strip mall where she gets her nails done, to see if there was a reopening date posed, and instead found the place cleaned out, and some guys inside removing all the chairs & tables) We are starting to see various forms of signs on a lot of small businesses in the area, that state things like "Thank you for you business, but we are closed for good" or "After XXyrs We're Done" or " tsk You Wolf"... It's sad and was completely unnecessary. The elderly could have been protected(almost everyone did it better than NY, PA, NJ & MI) without destroying the State's economy completely...

twocents


Re: The official Coronavirus thread [Re: hooziewhatsit] #2778044
05/25/20 01:28 PM
05/25/20 01:28 PM
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USA
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Originally Posted by hooziewhatsit
Originally Posted by Jjs72D
Originally Posted by nss guy
I would like to see the number of all deaths in the US no mater the cause for April 2019 vs April 2020. I think this would give a more accurate picture of what impact Covid-19 has had.


Excellent idea. My suspicion is that the overall death count will be less this year as compared to 2019.


ehh, I'm not so sure.

CDC deaths/excess deaths charts:
https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/excess_deaths.htm


Use the drop down menu to
change United States to
New York City
Then change to
Florida
Then change to
Utah

Re: The official Coronavirus thread [Re: 360view] #2778074
05/25/20 02:32 PM
05/25/20 02:32 PM
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Hard for me to see a trend with stale data.
I checked news this morning before chores and first heat of the year has me inside now (for those interested incendiary members).
I'm seeing many reports (conservative news-sites for the naysayers) of what is being reported as people not maintaining distance. There are reports of released prisoners murdering now they are on the street, churches suing for religious freedoms (as the parishioners "could have" got coronavirus at the store), shuttered businesses in ordinarily well attended weekend tourist spots, etc.
What we have here is a virus sapping not only lives, but common decency from our country. A unifying voice tempering the despair, a cease of accusations and a clear plan to deal with the pandemic would go far to heal our country. Too much damage is occurring and the path out of this mess is obstructed by failures.

Re: The official Coronavirus thread [Re: Jjs72D] #2778080
05/25/20 02:41 PM
05/25/20 02:41 PM
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Bitopia
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Originally Posted by Jjs72D
Sure, right after you post a picture of your car. This is a car forum primarily.


Exactly what would a picture of my car achieve on a COVID thread? eyes


Reality check, that half the population is smarter then 50% of the people and it's a constantly contested fact.
Re: The official Coronavirus thread [Re: srt] #2778081
05/25/20 02:43 PM
05/25/20 02:43 PM
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Bitopia
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Originally Posted by srt
What we have here is a virus sapping not only lives, but common decency from our country. A unifying voice tempering the despair, a cease of accusations and a clear plan to deal with the pandemic would go far to heal our country. Too much damage is occurring and the path out of this mess is obstructed by failures.


Self reflection was usually not thought of as a high priority during the Decline of the Roman Empire, I have read.


Reality check, that half the population is smarter then 50% of the people and it's a constantly contested fact.
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