Re: The official Coronavirus thread
[Re: Guitar Jones]
#2752744
03/17/20 02:43 AM
03/17/20 02:43 AM
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Joined: May 2003
Posts: 6,562 Downtown Roebuck Ont
Twostick
Still wishing...
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Still wishing...
Joined: May 2003
Posts: 6,562
Downtown Roebuck Ont
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1 person is all it ever takes, flu, chicken pox, common cold etc. These "experts" never seem to compare stats to other outbreaks like H1N1 Swine Flu. How many cases how fast, vs how many fatalities over the same time frame. The Spanish Flu which was an H1N1 virus, spread across the globe like wildfire and killed millions and I think all you had to do to be in the risk of dying group was to be still breathing. Everybody was at risk because apparently when that virus sprang to life there was very little natural Human immunity to it. I read somewhere that that's the same reason this Corona Virus is claimed to be so dangerous, very little natural Human immunity and yet the serious risk group is actually quite limited given its pandemic status. If we were this deep into "just the flu" season, everybody on this board would know somebody with the flu if they didn't already have it themselves. I'm just not seeing that kind of contagious spread. While I don't deny there is serious risk to some by ignoring the whole thing, this mass hysteria reaction just defies logic and people that stand to make a lot of money off the fear of the virus or stand to loose a lot of money from it seem to be pouring gas on the fire either from their actions or lack thereof. Kevin Wow, so you are saying should we have another outbreak like the first H1N1, Spanish flu it's OK because the serious risk group is small? You know, the elderly and the medically compromised? Don't worry kids, it's just the old people, go out and have a good time! Have you read anything on what is going on Italy? Their health care system is overrun, Because of the lack of available hospital beds and equipment like respirators they are having to make decisions on who gets treatments. The more likely to succumb to the virus you are the less likely you will be treated. You are also saying China and South Korea over reacted? Even when they have the capability to address large scale needs? The whole reason for the actions is so we don't have a repeat of the original H1N1 outbreak. This is not "just the flu" for many people. Besides there are flu shots every year which although not totally effective, they do keep the number of cases down. There are also therapeutic treatments for the flu. If I got the flu I would be concerned about getting pneumonia and would seek treatment immediately. If I get Covid-19 there probably wouldn't be a treatment in the world that would save me from getting pneumonia, and getting pneumonia again would, in all probability kill me. But I guess in your mind it's OK since I'm 63. Not what I'm saying at all and if I was you I would be VERY concerned. All I was trying to say was that if this virus doesn't have any natural Human immunity to deal with as I've heard claimed, it should be blazing through the population much like the first H1N1 did, not by the dozens here and there. I know that's an over simplification but if I'm in your shoes I'm not putting a lot of faith in any "measures", I'm doing what you have done, headed for the hills and avoid all contact with the outside world as is possible. Unavoidable contact would be made on my conditions from a safe distance. Oh and I'm 62 for a few months yet and I've done the heart attack and triple bypass too. I'm not aware of anything related to those 2 events that put me at much more risk than average, certainly not to the extent that you are dealing with. I guess I'm just old and paranoid enough to think that maybe that old saw about if a politician doesn't have a crisis to take advantage of, they should invent one is more than a little at play here. It's certainly working out for the toilet paper and hand sanitizer business. I wish you well. Kevin
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Re: The official Coronavirus thread
[Re: Twostick]
#2752746
03/17/20 02:54 AM
03/17/20 02:54 AM
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Joined: Oct 2007
Posts: 3,884 Oregon
hooziewhatsit
master
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master
Joined: Oct 2007
Posts: 3,884
Oregon
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Twostick, it is blazing through the population, we just don't know it because we're a month behind on the testing that we should be doing. South Korea can test 10k+ per day. I'm not sure if we've tested that many total since January.
It's like we know it's snowing outside, but we haven't looked out to see how deep it is. It could be half an inch, or it could be 3 feet. Without accurate measuring/testing, we're going to open the door and learn we weren't ready for the 4 feet that came down.
If you ever find yourself in a fair fight, your tactics suck.
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Re: The official Coronavirus thread
[Re: not_a_charger]
#2752760
03/17/20 08:01 AM
03/17/20 08:01 AM
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Joined: Jan 2006
Posts: 8,162 USA
360view
Moparts resident spammer
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Moparts resident spammer
Joined: Jan 2006
Posts: 8,162
USA
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Sample quote But researchers now suggest that humidity, more than heat, may prove effective at choking off the person-to-person transmissions that make the disease’s spread so dangerous. Still, it’s far from settled science. Dr. Alan Evangelista, a microbiology and virology professor at St. Christopher’s Hospital for Children in Philadelphia, has studied common coronaviruses and influenza particles for eight years. He says his research indicates that “the size and overall composition of [the novel coronavirus] particle is similar to other coronaviruses we have tested” -- meaning his findings may shed light on how the coronavirus spreads, and possibly how it dies out. Those findings show that “transmission is highly efficient under drier and colder conditions,” but far less so in a humid environment. According to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, the novel coronavirus is thought to spread mainly from person-to-person through respiratory droplets when an infected person coughs or sneezes. Those droplets can be inhaled into the lungs or land in the mouths or noses of people nearby. The droplets are also believed to linger on hard surfaces, which other people might later touch. “As humidity increases, the viral droplet size is larger and settles out of the air rapidly,” Evangelista found, according to a statement he provided to ABC News on his research. “In contrast, in low humidity, there is rapid evaporation of respiratory droplets,” he continued. “They remain airborne for prolonged periods, increasing the time and distance over which transmission can occur.” Evangelista argues that while “there are obviously no guarantees that COVID-19 will behave exactly like the known coronaviruses … the laws of physics should apply.” End quote https://abcnews.go.com/Health/humid...rly-specialist-hopeful/story?id=69624343While this is a bit of hope, and SARS virus decreased in summer, remember that Polio virus used to increase in summer.
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Re: The official Coronavirus thread
[Re: 360view]
#2752793
03/17/20 10:48 AM
03/17/20 10:48 AM
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Joined: Jan 2006
Posts: 8,162 USA
360view
Moparts resident spammer
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Moparts resident spammer
Joined: Jan 2006
Posts: 8,162
USA
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Part of the earlier 2003 SARS disease deaths were due to an over reaction by the human being’s immune system called a Cytokine Storm. This may be happening in COVID-19 too and would explain why babies get mild symptoms but +60 year olds die. https://medicalxpress.com/news/2020-03-covid-host-disease.htmlSample quote Q. Are there ways to measure CSS, and are those measurements being done? A. An elevated serum ferritin test—which is cheap, readily available and quick—is a good first step for screening for CSS. There are a variety of other tests that can then help confirm or deny the presence of a cytokine storm syndrome. End quote
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Re: The official Coronavirus thread
[Re: 360view]
#2752797
03/17/20 11:00 AM
03/17/20 11:00 AM
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Joined: Jan 2006
Posts: 8,162 USA
360view
Moparts resident spammer
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Moparts resident spammer
Joined: Jan 2006
Posts: 8,162
USA
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An expert suggests 9 things you should do in everyday life https://medicalxpress.com/news/2020-03-day-limit-exposure-coronavirus.htmlSample quote 1. Wash your hands at every opportunity with soap and warm water for the recommended 20 seconds. I have observed that most people simply rinse their hands for a few seconds in restrooms, which is not effective in removing viruses. Twenty seconds is the minimum. 2. Avoid handling money. That dollar bill that you get for change could have been in the hands of an infected person just moments before it is placed in your hand. I use credit cards for everything possible, even a cup of coffee. 3. When a signature is required, I carry my own pen and never use the same pen that others have already used. I use only the back of my fingernail to scribble a signature on a pad. 4. Use your left hand (if right handed) to open doors and avoid using door knobs entirely whenever possible. 5. Use only a knuckle to push an elevator button and other common push devices. Your little finger knuckle is least likely to be used on your face. 6. Avoid using hand rails unless you are falling. It is common to see people sliding their hand along the rail as they use the steps. Think about how many people have coughed or sneezed before using that same railing. 7. Carry and use a hand sanitizer liberally when in meetings and public places, avoid sharing papers and objects that others have touched. 8. Hold your breath immediately if someone around you sneezes or coughs and then distance yourself by 6 feet. 9. If someone behind you in a line sneezes or coughs, let them in front of you.
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Re: The official Coronavirus thread
[Re: 360view]
#2752801
03/17/20 11:20 AM
03/17/20 11:20 AM
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Joined: Jan 2003
Posts: 18,632 jersey shore
flypaper
I hate Texas
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I hate Texas
Joined: Jan 2003
Posts: 18,632
jersey shore
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its been around since December I got it in Jan went to Doc was told it was a bacterial infection and not the Flu, hit my lungs hard but I quit smoking years ago or it would of been worse if I smoked a man made virus being reported on by unreliable sources even the CDC numbers are voodoo..
the fearmongering is out of control.. if the sick and weak are the most vulnerable why aren't they being isolated instead of disrupting everyone's lives???
This is basically a cold virus which might have been around for months before it was officially named. It has caused a certain number of deaths as all viruses do, but it is an enormous stretch to call this one “a pandemic” because most of the time you just sneeze and have a runny nose for a few days. We don’t know its lethality percentage because normally we do not “test for” a cold. We do not have “confirmed cases” because we do not bother to “confirm” them. Because nearly always you just get over it. To say that it “leads to viral pneumonia” is factually true but not inevitable. Likewise, to that it “spreads exponentially” is true of all viral and bacterial infections. So, what the public is being sold is factually true in all cases, but not contextual. “Thousands of more people might test positive” simply because “now we are testing.” But, in general, “virus tests” are not targeted to identify a particular strain – they’re targeted to predict whether a particular medication might work. And we are already seeing that while “rhinoviruses” and “coronaviruses” (achoo!!) are as common as ever they were, we have vastly and wrongly over-reacted here. The actual science does not support what we did, nor does it support the hypothesis that “within 14 days it will all be over.” The government has vast powers to enforce public health controls, but it had no true justification to get “trigger-happy” now.
♦ FACT: 98 to 99% of the American people tested, who have symptoms (similar to flu), test negative for the Wuhan novel coronavirus (COVID-19). We are spending hundreds of billions, and disrupting all facets of life and liberty, to avoid a virus almost no-one carries. If they can’t get math right, why are we trusting their biology?
If Dr. Fauci’s magic theories are correct, then by THIS Friday there should be tens of thousands of people testing positive for Coronavirus. If not…. we’ve destroyed the U.S. economy , and we’ve wiped out tens of trillions in U.S. wealth. for no legit reason..
well except for one I'm not allowed to mention here...
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Re: The official Coronavirus thread
[Re: not_a_charger]
#2752821
03/17/20 12:35 PM
03/17/20 12:35 PM
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Joined: May 2003
Posts: 6,562 Downtown Roebuck Ont
Twostick
Still wishing...
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Still wishing...
Joined: May 2003
Posts: 6,562
Downtown Roebuck Ont
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![laugh2 laugh2](/ubbthreads/images/graemlins/custom/laugh2.gif) No amount of information from people with knowledge, education, and actual experience is enough to convince the willfully ignorant. ![laugh2 laugh2](/ubbthreads/images/graemlins/custom/laugh2.gif) That's my polite version of Ron White's famous quote. This is from the Toronto Globe and Mail, written by the retired Chief Medical Officer for The Province of Ontario, who was also Chief of Staff at a major Toronto hospital during the SARS epidemic. I think he checks all 3 of your boxes and I agree with his assessment. https://www.theglobeandmail.com/opi...coronavirus-does-not-register-as-a-dire/Kevin
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Re: The official Coronavirus thread
[Re: Twostick]
#2752823
03/17/20 12:55 PM
03/17/20 12:55 PM
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Joined: Dec 2009
Posts: 20,640 in a cattle trailer down by th...
Guitar Jones
Paddle faster! I hear banjo music!
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Paddle faster! I hear banjo music!
Joined: Dec 2009
Posts: 20,640
in a cattle trailer down by th...
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![laugh2 laugh2](/ubbthreads/images/graemlins/custom/laugh2.gif) No amount of information from people with knowledge, education, and actual experience is enough to convince the willfully ignorant. ![laugh2 laugh2](/ubbthreads/images/graemlins/custom/laugh2.gif) That's my polite version of Ron White's famous quote. This is from the Toronto Globe and Mail, written by the retired Chief Medical Officer for The Province of Ontario, who was also Chief of Staff at a major Toronto hospital during the SARS epidemic. I think he checks all 3 of your boxes and I agree with his assessment. https://www.theglobeandmail.com/opi...coronavirus-does-not-register-as-a-dire/Kevin Part of the problem is the unknown, we simply don't know enough about this particular virus or the eventual outcome. Have any of you ever heard the phrase "Better safe than sorry"? We may never truly know just how bad it may have been but, if history shows we over reacted rather than under reacted I'm fine with that.
"Follow me the wise man said, but he walked behind"
'92 D250 Club Cab CTD, 47RH conversion, pump tweaks, injectors, rear disc and hydroboost conversion. '74 W200 Crew Cab 360, NV4500, D44, D60 and NP205 divorced transfer case. Rear disc and hydroboost coming soon! 2019 1500 Long Horn Crew Cab 4WD, 5.7 Hemi.
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Re: The official Coronavirus thread
[Re: not_a_charger]
#2752827
03/17/20 01:05 PM
03/17/20 01:05 PM
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Joined: Dec 2003
Posts: 22,696 Bitopia
jcc
If you can't dazzle em with diamonds..
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If you can't dazzle em with diamonds..
Joined: Dec 2003
Posts: 22,696
Bitopia
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[quote=not_a_charger] ![laugh2 laugh2](/ubbthreads/images/graemlins/custom/laugh2.gif) No amount of information from people with knowledge, education, and actual experience is enough to convince the willfully ignorant. ![laugh2 laugh2](/ubbthreads/images/graemlins/custom/laugh2.gif) That's my polite version of Ron White's famous quote. [/quote ![iagree iagree](/ubbthreads/images/graemlins/custom/iagree.gif) Let me expand the info many seem to willfully chose to ignore: "Subject: Posted by an ER doc I know at Hartford Hospital!
This is a long post addressing two underlying issues with the current response to the pandemic that leave me concerned. It’s the longest post I’ve ever written.
For those of you not taking action, or believing the pandemic to be “over hyped”, you can make fun of me as much as you want now or when this is over. You can make me the subject of memes and post it everywhere. I will pose for the picture. I am not trying to convince you, but I do feel compelled to share information that I deem critical to all of us, which is why I am posting this at all.
WHY YOU SHOULD TAKE 5 MINUTES TO READ AND CONSIDER THE INFORMATION I AM SHARING:
For those of you who don’t know me well, I am analytical and metered. I don’t freak out nor do I respond emotionally. I also don’t post a bunch of [censored] or political or controversial stuff on Facebook. I founded and am CEO of a successful software company that provides SaaS based data, analytics, and dashboards to recruiting departments at companies we all know. As you would expect, I am data driven and fact based. Before founding my company I held executive roles leading very large recruiting teams at some of the world's fastest growing companies such as Starbucks and Google. At Google I was fortunate enough to report to Sheryl Sandberg before she took the Facebook COO role. I was a Chemical Engineering major in college and have a business degree from a top undergraduate business school. I am not one for hyperbole or histrionics. My [censored] factor is close to zero.
I share all this personal information only to help solidify that this post may be worth reading and sharing with others. I would encourage you to forward or share this post at your discretion. Many people do not understand what is happening with the pandemic to the degree required which is why I took the time to write this and share this on Facebook.
Now that I've gotten the introduction out of the way, here are two issues I want to bring to everyone’s attention.
ISSUE ONE: SOCIAL NORMS ARE POWERFUL MOTIVATORS AND GETTING IN THE WAY OF PEOPLE TAKING THE RIGHT STEPS IN RESPONSE TO THE PANDEMIC:
One of the current problems with addressing the pandemic is the social pressures of taking action today. It's awkward, and feels like an over-reaction. The reason it feels like an overreaction is that most people OVERWEIGHT the currently reported cases and inherently UNDERWEIGHT the mathematics of how the virus is spreading and what will happen in about 30 days time. This is because our brains tend to think linearly as opposed to logarithmically. It’s the same reason many people don’t save for retirement or understand compound interest.
To create a new social norm, human beings like to see behavior modeled. This serves as a signal that says, “oh, someone else is doing it so I should do it also.”
SO HERE IS A SOCIAL BENCHMARK FOR REFERENCE - THIS IS WHAT I’VE DONE FOR MY FAMILY TO DATE:
I have already isolated my family. We have canceled EVERYTHING. We have canceled previously scheduled doctor visits. Social get togethers. Normal routine meetings. Everything has been canceled. It's difficult and socially awkward. Some of you think I’m crazy, but I’m doing it not because I am afraid, but because I am good at math (more on that in part 2). I had to have my 16 year old daughter quit her job coaching junior gymnasts at the local gym, with one day’s notice and also tell my kids they can't attend youth group at church. Both of those were tough discussions. I told a very close friend he shouldn’t stay at my house this weekend even though he was planning to and had booked his flight from the Bay Area. I canceled another dear friend’s visit for later this month to go snowboarding on Mt Bachelor.
We are not eating out. Our kids are already doing online school so we don’t have to make changes there. I would not send my kids to school even if they were in public or private school. We have eliminated all non-essential contact with other people. We will only venture out to grocery shop when required. We will still go outside to parks, go mountain biking, hiking, and recreate to keep ourselves sane and do other things as a family, just not with other people. We have stocked up on food and have a supply for ~2 months. We have stocked up on other goods that if depleted would create hardship, like medicines and feminine hygiene products. We have planned for shortages of essential items.
THE REASON I HAVE CHOSEN THIS ROUTE FOR MY FAMILY IS MULTI FACETED:
1. Although my family is considered low risk (I’m 49 in good health, Angi is 46 and in good health, and our kids are 14 and 16), we must assume that the healthcare system cannot help us, because the hospitals will become overwhelmed very quickly. Most American hospitals will become overwhelmed in approximately 30 days unless something changes. More on this in part 2 below. So although we are in great health and unlikely to become gravely ill, the risk is greater if you do not have access to the medical care that you need. This is something for everyone to consider. As a society we are accustomed to having access to the best medical care available. Our medical system will be overwhelmed unless we practice social distancing at scale. That said, the medical teams in Italy are seeing an alarming number of cases from people in their 40s and 50s.
2. It’s not a matter of if social distancing will take place, it’s a matter of when. This is because social distancing is the only way to stop the virus today. As I will explain in part 2 below, starting now is FAR more effective than starting even 2 days from now or tomorrow. This has been proven by Italy and China (and soon to be France and other European countries who have been slow to respond.). Wuhan went on lockdown after roughly 400 cases were identified (and they had access to testing that America has systematically failed to do well to date). The US already has more than 4 times this number of known infected cases as Wuhan did when it was shut down, and our citizens are far more mobile and therefore spreading the virus more broadly when compared to Wuhan. Yet our response is tepid at best.
If hand washing and “being smart” were sufficient Italy would not be in crisis. So I pray the draconian measures are coming from our government, because they are required to stop the spread of the virus. It’s better to start sooner than later as the cost is actually far greater if we wait. I pray they close all schools and non-essential services the way that Italy and China have done.
3. Spreading the virus puts those in the high-risk category at much greater risk. This is the moral argument. It’s a strong argument because there are only two ways, as of today, that the virus can be stopped: let it run its course and infect 100s of millions of people, or social distancing. There is no other way today. If you don’t practice social distancing, people downstream from you that you transmit the virus to will die, and many will suffer.
4. The risk of infection is increasing exponentially, because the quantity of infected people, most who will not show symptoms, is doubling every three days. So the longer you wait to self-isolate, the greater the chance of you or someone you love becoming infected and then you infecting others because more of the population is becoming infected. There are twice as many infected people today as there was on Tuesday.
5. The virus is already in your town. It’s everywhere. Cases are typically only discovered when someone gets sick enough to seek medical attention. This is important as it typically takes ~5 days to START showing ANY symptoms. Here’s the math: For every known case there are approximately 50 unknown cases. This is because if I become sick, I infect several people today, and they infect a few people each tomorrow (as do I), and the total count of infected people doubles every 3 days until I get so sick I get hospitalized or get tested and become a “known case”. But in the time it takes me to figure out I am sick 50 others downline from me now have the virus. So every third day the infection rate doubles until I get so sick that I realize I have the virus an am hospitalized or otherwise tested. Harvard and Massachusetts General Hospital estimate that there are 50x more infections than known infections as reported (citation below). The implication of this is that the virus is already “everywhere” and spreading regardless if your city has zero, few or many reported cases. So instead of the 1573 reported known cases today there are likely 78,650 cases, at least, in the United States. Which will double to 157,300 by this Sunday. And this will double to 314,600 cases by this coming Wednesday. So in less than 1 week the number of total infected in the United States will quadruple. This is the nature of exponential math. It’s actually unfortunate that we are publishing the figures for known cases as it diverts attention away from more important numbers (like the range of estimated actual cases).
6. Some people cannot, or will not, practice social distancing for a variety of reasons and will continue to spread the virus to many people. So everyone else must start today.
The reasons above are why I have begun to practice social distancing. It’s not easy. But you should do it too.
The hospitals will be at capacity and there are not enough ventilators. You will hear a lot about this issue in the coming few weeks... the shortage of ventilators.
ISSUE TWO: MANY PEOPLE ARE FOCUSED ON THE WRONG NUMBERS:
Yes, the virus only kills a small percentage of those afflicted. Yes, the flu kills 10s of thousands of people annually. Yes, 80% of people will experience lightweight symptoms with COVID19. Yes the mortality rate of COVID19 is relatively low (1-2%). All of this true, but is immaterial. They are the wrong numbers to focus on...
The nature of exponential math is that the infection rates start slowly, and then goes off like a bomb and overwhelms the hospitals. You will understand this math clearly in the next section if you do the short math exercise. Evergreen hospital in Seattle is already in triage. I have heard credible reports from people on the ground that they are already becoming overwhelmed. And the bomb won't really go off for a few more days. Probably by Wednesday, March 18th (next week). In just a few days from now we will hear grave reports from Seattle hospitals.
You should assume the virus is everywhere at this point, even if you have no confirmed cases in your area.
YOU SHOULD DO THIS SIMPLE 2 MINUTE MATH EXERCISE (NO REALLY TAKE TWO MINUTES AND DO IT):
To further understand exponential growth, take the number of confirmed cases in your area and multiply by 10 (or 50 if you believe Harvard and Massachusetts General estimations) to account for the cases that are not yet confirmed. If you have no confirmed cases choose a small number. I’d suggest 10 cases in your city, if no cases are yet reported. But you can use whatever number you like. This number of infected people doubles every ~3 days as the infection spreads. So literally take your number, and multiply by 2. Then do it again. Then do it again. Then do it again. Do this multiplication exercise 10 times in total.
2 x 2 x 2 x 2 x 2 x 2 x 2 x 2 x 2 x 2 x (the number of estimated infections in your city today (not just the reported cases)).
This result is the estimate for the actual cases in your area 30 days from now. The math will take 30 seconds to complete with a calculator and it’s worth doing the math to see how it grows. This end number is the number of cases in your city 30 days from today if a large percentage of the population do not practice social distancing.
2 to the 10th power is 1024. When something doubles 10 times, it's the same as multiplying by 1024. The infection rate of the virus doubles every 3 days. In thirty days there will be 1,024 times the number of infected people in your area as there is today if your community does not immediately put social distancing into practice. One thousand and twenty four times as many infected people as there is today, in just 30 days.
Next, divide the final number (the scary big one) you just calculated by the current population of your city and you will be able to get the percentage of people THAT YOU KNOW PERSONALLY who will be infected 30 days from now.
Next take 15% (multiply by 0.15) of that final 30 day number of total infected people. This will provide an estimate of the serious cases which will require acute medical care, and compare it to the number of beds and ventilators available at your local hospital. Google the "number of beds" and the name of your local hospital now. It takes 2 seconds and the number of beds is easy to find. 65% of beds are already occupied by patients unrelated to the coronavirus. St Charles in Bend, Oregon where I live, has 226 beds and the town is roughly 100,000 people. Most hospitals have on average, 40 or fewer ventilators.
These numbers you just calculated are the problem: Too many patients, not enough beds, and a serious shortage of ventilators (the biggest problem) if we don't immediately begint social distancing. More on this biggest problem related to the insufficient quantity of ventilators is below.
COUNTRIES THAT GET OVERWHELMED WILL HAVE A MUCH GREATER MORTALITY RATE BECAUSE THEY WON’T BE ABLE TO ADEQUATELY CARE FOR THE SICK.
And by sick I mean not just coronavirus patients. Your son or daughter that needs acute care surgery this May for his badly broken leg will be attended to by an orthopedic doctor that has been working at maximum capacity and working 18 hour shifts for 7 days every week for 6 weeks because it was required to care for all the coronavirus patients at her hospital. Or the orthopedic surgeon will be sick with the virus and your son or daughter will be operated on by a non-expert or a member of the National Guard. Your elderly Mom that has diabetes and goes into acute distress next month may not receive ANY care because the doctors are consumed and have to prioritize patients based on triage handbooks filled with success rate probabilities. Your sibling’s family that are all injured in a terrible car crash in June will have diminished care. If one of them needs a ventilator there will be none available because all of them will be in use by critical coronavirus patients. Your young friend with cancer and a compromised immune system from treatment will succumb even though the cancer was curable and the treatment was working, because their body was too fragile to combat the coronavirus due to the chemotherapy and they couldn't receive the customized, acute care required due to the hospital being overwhelmed. All of the above is currently happening in Italy, who had the same number of infections we have today just 2 weeks ago. You must start today.
The count of actual virus infections doubles every ~3 days. The news and government agencies are lagging in their response. So we hear that the US only has 1573 cases today (3/12/20), ( see https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/) and it doesn't seem like a lot. It would be better to report the estimated actual cases, since reported cases don’t tell us much. However, we know from China that the actual number of cases are at least an order of magnitude greater than the reported cases, because people get infected and do not display symptoms. In math, an "order of magnitude" means ten times difference, or put another way, a factor of 10. 100 is 10 times greater than 10, so it's an order of magnitude greater.
Harvard Medical School / Massachusetts General Hospital just released their estimate (recording is here: https://externalmediasite.partners.org/…/53a4003de5ab4b4da5…) that the actual cases are 50x greater than the reported cases. So we likely have 75,000 cases in the United States already. The number of reported cases is not that important.
But let’s assume the current number of cases is only 10,000 ACTUAL cases in the United States just to be conservative and model out what will happen:
If we don’t stop the virus from spreading, in 30 days we will have 2 to the 10th power more cases of infected people because the infection count doubles every 3 days (the virus doubles every 3 days and there are 10, 3 day periods in 30 days).
The math: 2 to the 10th power means 1,024 times as many cases as we have today (2 times 2 repeated 10 times).
This number is a catastrophically big problem for all of us: We will have 10 million+ actual cases (10,000 actual cases today x 1,024) in the United States in just 30 days’ time if we continue without extreme social distancing. 10 million people with the virus. And it will keep doubling every 3 days unless we practice social distancing.
15% of cases require significant medical attention, which means that 1.5 million people will require significant medical attention if 10 million people get infected (15% of 10 Million total infections = 1.5 million people requiring hospitalization).
1.5 million hospitalizations is about 50% more than we have beds for at hospitals in the United States. And 65% of all beds are already occupied in our hospitals. But patients with the virus need ICU beds, not just any old hospital bed. Only about 10% of hospital beds are considered intensive care. So we will have a huge bed shortage, but that is not the biggest problem, as we can erect temporary ICU shelters and bring in more temporary beds, as Italy has already done, and California and Washington hospitals have already done. Evergreen Hospital in Seattle has already erected temporary triage tents in the parking lot as of 3/13/20. All regular beds are full at Evergreen Hospital as of yesterday.
Once the government of China, Norway, and Italy came to understand this math, they reacted accordingly and shut EVERYTHING down. Extreme social distancing is the only response available to stop the virus today. The United States is not responding well nor are other countries like France or the UK. Countries that do not respond well will pay a much larger, catastrophic price.
But hospital beds are not the big problem. The lack of ventilators is the big problem. Most estimates peg the ventilators in the United States at roughly 100,000 to 150,000 units. See https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/21149215 (admittedly dated) and https://theweek.com/…/doesnt-have-enough-icu-beds-ventilato…
The primary and most serious comorbid (comorbid is a medical term that means co-existing or happening at the same time) condition brought on by the Coronavirus is something called bilateral interstitial pneumonia which requires ventilators for treatment of seriously ill patients. So if 1.5M people of the 10 million infected 30 days from now require acute care (15% of the 10M estimated total infections), 1.3M may not get the care that they need because we don’t have enough ventilators in the United States. And remember, this is only if ALL OF US EFFECTIVELY start social distancing by April 11th (30 days from today).
BUT IF WE START EXTREME SOCIAL DISTANCING BY MARCH 23 (12 days from this writing), WE AVOID OVER 1.4 MILLION PEOPLE GETTING CRITICALLY ILL AND OVERWHELMING THE HOSPITALS:
If everyone takes extreme measures to social distance, and the United States can dramatically reduce the spread of the virus 12 days from now, the math is very different, as the exponential growth will only be 2 to the 4th power (12 days divided by the doubling rate of every 3 days equals the exponent of 4):
2 x 2 x 2 x 2 = 16
So instead of 10 Million cases in the United States if we wait 30 days, if we act 18 days sooner, we will have only 160,000 cases (16 times the estimated 10,000 actual cases as of today), of which 15% are likely to require critical care. This is 24,000 critical patients (a huge difference compared to 1.5 million acute patients). The difference between taking extreme measures now, versus waiting even a few days, is very large due to how exponents work in math.
THE OUTCOME IS EVEN BETTER IF WE TAKE ACTION IN THE NEXT 6 DAYS: If the vast majority of the population self isolates and implements social distancing in only 6 days from now the exponential math is 2 to the 2nd power (6 days divided by the 3 days it takes the virus to double means the exponent is only 2). In math this is "two squared".
2 x 2 = 4
Multiplied by the estimated 10,000 ACTUAL cases as of today (3/12/20) that means only 40,000 total cases will develop, 15% of which may be critical which is 6,000 critical patients.
This is why you should share this post broadly. If people begin social distancing in the next 6 days it will greatly reduce the impact on all of us. It's why they say a "post goes viral".
SOCIAL DISTANCING WILL REDUCE THE FINANCIAL IMPACT TO YOU AND YOUR FAMILY:
Finally, the longer everyone waits to practice significant social distancing the greater the economic hardship will be on all of us. Lost jobs. Mortgage defaults. Closed businesses. Bankruptcies. All will be minimized if you start social distancing today.
Some of the reasons the economic impacts will be reduced are worth mentioning: If we stop the virus now the overall duration of the outbreak will be far shorter. The stock market will normalize more quickly and recover more quickly. Businesses and people will be able to survive a shorter duration outbreak vs a longer duration outbreak. More companies will avoid bankruptcy if we begin to practice social distancing now.
This is a big financial reason to begin social distancing if you are employed by any company: if companies see that the virus is being slowed, they will be less likely to conduct layoffs. You will be more likely to be laid off or experience a job-related event if we don’t practice social distancing immediately. As an HR executive, I’ve been involved in many, many layoffs. It’s the last thing companies want to do. But if they see that the pandemic will be shorter lived vs long and drawn out, they are less likely to make the permanent decision of laying off staff.
The overall economic impact that hits your bank account will be greater if you wait or you don’t practice social distancing. This is why Norway acted now, because it’s less economic impact to take drastic measures early than to do them later, and it saves a lot of lives and suffering by doing so. And Norway has only one confirmed death as of this writing.
START TODAY. I CAN’T STRESS THIS ENOUGH. YOU MUST START TODAY.
Finally, the article that I posted yesterday written by Tomas Pueyo has been read 7M times in the last 24 hours and has been updated with new information. It’s worth reading again.
Here’s that link.
https://medium.com/…/coronavirus-act-today-or-people-will-d…
Other up to date data I frequently consult regarding the pandemic is here:
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/
I hope this is helpful and useful. My brain focuses on the math and I try and be fact based in my analysis and interpretation of how I should respond.
THERE IS MORE INFORMATION IN THE COMMENTS BELOW WORTH READING AND I WILL BE UPDATING THIS POST, AND THE COMMENTS, WITH MORE INFORMATION, (AS OPPOSED TO CREATING NEW POSTS).
MY FINAL PARTING THOUGHT: Please share or forward this post at your discretion. If everyone shares this post and two of your friends share this post and so on, we use the power of exponential math to work in our favor, which seems appropriate given the virus is using that same exponential math against us.
HOW YOU CAN REALLY HELP: If you know people who have large numbers of followers, or people in the media, please leverage your personal relationship with them and ask them to amplify this post by sharing it.
For people not on Facebook you can email or text the link. If you know people in government this fact-based post may help inform them to make the best decisions.
It's time for us humans to go on the offensive against the virus. We must fight back.
There is only one way to do so: Social Distancing.
Do it today.
NOTE: Anyone, including the media, is free to use this post, any related content, in all or in part, for any purpose, in any format, with no attribution required. Please direct message me if you have other ideas for how to raise awareness.
Reality check, that half the population is smarter then 50% of the people and it's a constantly contested fact.
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Re: The official Coronavirus thread
[Re: Twostick]
#2752829
03/17/20 01:09 PM
03/17/20 01:09 PM
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Joined: Dec 2007
Posts: 19,900 Puttin' on the foil in Charles...
not_a_charger
OP
Mr. Big Shot Moparts Moderator
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OP
Mr. Big Shot Moparts Moderator
Joined: Dec 2007
Posts: 19,900
Puttin' on the foil in Charles...
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![laugh2 laugh2](/ubbthreads/images/graemlins/custom/laugh2.gif) No amount of information from people with knowledge, education, and actual experience is enough to convince the willfully ignorant. ![laugh2 laugh2](/ubbthreads/images/graemlins/custom/laugh2.gif) That's my polite version of Ron White's famous quote. This is from the Toronto Globe and Mail, written by the retired Chief Medical Officer for The Province of Ontario, who was also Chief of Staff at a major Toronto hospital during the SARS epidemic. I think he checks all 3 of your boxes and I agree with his assessment. https://www.theglobeandmail.com/opi...coronavirus-does-not-register-as-a-dire/Kevin There are plenty of other experts who vehemently disagree with him, but he's certainly qualified as an expert, and his opinion is still rational and well expressed, as opposed to the "OMG THIS IS THE FLU WASH YOUR HANDS THE ILLUMINATI CREATED THIS AS A DISTRACTION" tin foil hat crowd. Those are the willfully ignorant.
Earning every penny of that moderator paycheck.
DBAP
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Re: The official Coronavirus thread
[Re: Pacnorthcuda]
#2752836
03/17/20 01:28 PM
03/17/20 01:28 PM
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Joined: Dec 2003
Posts: 22,696 Bitopia
jcc
If you can't dazzle em with diamonds..
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If you can't dazzle em with diamonds..
Joined: Dec 2003
Posts: 22,696
Bitopia
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Ain’t nobody got time for dat! Forgot, attention span is limited to 280 characters. My deepest apologies if I overtaxed anyone. Get back to me in 15 days.
Reality check, that half the population is smarter then 50% of the people and it's a constantly contested fact.
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