Ohio postponing tomorrow's election, closing additional businesses (gyms, rec centers, movie theaters, several others).

Just read this one - (the stat tables do not show here): Here's the link: https://www.americanthinker.com/blog/2020/03/covid19_the_numbers_tell_the_story.html

Covid-19: The numbers tell the story
By Marc Shepard


By merging datasets recently made available by the World Health Organization, the Centers for Disease Control and Johns Hopkins University, I’ve gathered some truly fascinating trend statistics on the global penetration of Covid-19 which I’m now prepared to share. There are 20 infected countries on page one of my analysis – and these are their stories.

Coronavirus (Covid-19) Global Penetration Statistics by Country as of 3/14/2020 08:00 GMT



Data Image Copyright © 2020 by Marc Sheppard

You’ll notice that this particular data-snapshot contains population, new cases reported, deaths and recoveries by country of exposure. I’ve added 5 columns for each metric: total, today, last 5 days, 6-10 days ago, and 11-15 days ago are calculated for each in order to spot trends.

I’ve also added percentages of cases per population, fatalities per caseload, and recoveries per caseload, by country and worldwide.

The 2020 populations came courtesy of a UN dataset which I joined to an ECDC dataset for daily new case and death details and a JHU-CSSE dataset for recovery details. The latter 2 are updated daily at 0800 GMT.

I was tempted to submit the result-set without comment, but perhaps I should get the conversation started.

Coronavirus (Covid-19) – By the Numbers

Note: When reading this section, please keep in mind that its analysis was penned based on older data (3/14/20). I’ve added an update including latest data table in the final section. Together, the 2 days’ data tell quite the fast-paced story. Hang on to your hat.

Now then, I’ve sorted the result-set descending by caseload, which, of course, puts the country where it all began, China, on top by a wide margin with 80,973 confirmed cases, 3,194 deaths and 64,196 patients recovered. Given a population of 1.44 Billion, that’s a 0.005626 % infection rate (that’s 1 in 19,011); a 3.94 % mortality rate and a 79.28 % recovery rate thus far.

Additionally, over the past 15 days, cases and deaths are both trending WAY down while recoveries trend up. A great sign of successful countermeasures policy.

A note on mortality rates – There’s high confidence that all are quite overstated in the case of Covid-19, due primarily to its tendency to manifest light or zero symptoms in over 80% of its hosts, who subsequently dismiss their illness as a common cold. As such, the denominator of its mortality calculations are heavily understated, causing the overstatement of the calculated percentage. As testing becomes more widespread, this problem should self-correct.

That said, to say that Italy is less encouraging than China would be quite the understatement. Italy places with 17,660 cases, 1,268 deaths and 1,439 recoveries. Italy has the highest mortality rate (in the top 20) at 7.18% and more than half its cases (10,285) were reported in the past 5 days (very bad). And of all nations with populations exceeding 500,000, Italy ranks #1 in infected rate at 0.029209 % (that’s 1 in every 3,424 people).

But it’s the past 15 days which concern me the most. 11-15 days ago, there were 1852 new cases. 6-10 days ago, 4873. And the 10,285 in the past 5 days represents 58% of the nation’s cases. Hmmmmm.

Italian fatalities in the past 15 days, in 5-day increments were 63, 286 and 902. In the latest data, they reported 252 Covid-19-related deaths.

Italian recoveries in the past 15 days, in 5-day increments were 440,440, and 817. The latest data reported 394 Covid-19 recoveries.

The show position goes to, of all places, Iran. 11,364 cases, 514 deaths and 2,959 recoveries. It has the 2nd highest mortality rate at 4.52 % and 42% of its cases (4,798) were reported in the past 5 days. Infection rate is a moderate 0.01353 % (1 in 7,390).

Cases reported in the past 15 days, in 5-day increments were 2,091, 4,230 and 4,798. The latest alone they reported 1289 Covid-19 cases.

Iranian fatalities in the past 15 days, in 5-day increments were 51, 117 and 320. In the latest data, they reported 85 Covid-19-related deaths.

Iranian recoveries in the past 15 days, in 5-day increments were 738, 1387, and 825. In the latest data, they reported NO Covid-19 recoveries.

S Korea’s (#4) infection rate (0.015772 %) is similar to Iran’s. But check out the declining cases, flat fatalities, and rising recoveries over the past 15 days, while Spain (#5), France (#6) and Germany (#7) cases and fatalities have exploded in that time, although recoveries show a favorable trend.

Here at home (#8), as of 3/14/2020 datasets, there are only 2,174 confirmed cases in the USA. That’s a 0.000007 % rate (1 in 152,255). And, not to minimize these passings, but for all the hype -- There’ve been only 47 deaths attributed to the virus (mortality = 2.16 %) in America ever.

But US cases in the past 15 days, in 5-day increments were 65, 429 and 1620. In the latest data, they reported 511 new Covid-19 cases. And almost 75% of cases were reported in the past 5 days. Definitely on a steep rise.

And US fatalities reported in the past 15 days, in 5-day increments were 9, 12 and 26. In the latest data, they reported 6 Covid-19 deaths.

Pretty similar to Spain, France and Germany.

Except that US recoveries in the past 15 days, in 5-day increments were 0, 0, and 5. In the latest data, there were NO Covid-19 recoveries.

But remember, we’re just getting started here.

The hope, of course, is that the American path more closely follows that of China than Italy or Iran. But that road may be a rocky one, as China’s authoritarian government employed measures which either wouldn’t or couldn’t ever fly here in the States.

Well, most of them anyway. Seems we’re just beginning to test what will and won’t fly here when citizens are freaked. Aggressively forced “social distancing” measures, including cancellation of sports events and closing of theaters, seemed unthinkable just a week or two ago. Never happen here, right? Tell that to “March madness” fans or lovers of the Great White Way.

And where do you suppose the idea of extending school vacations began? If the query evoked images of Pandas and chopsticks, you’re getting warm.

Of course, obliging citizens to wear protective masks, enforced by tracking systems resident on their phones couldn’t happen here either, right? Or 50 million people on forced lock-down as was the city of Wuhan and nearby towns in Hubei province as they received mandatory quarantine?

And even if such draconian measures were adopted, they’d come with no guarantees. In Italy, a similar albeit less military shutdown effectively quarantined 100,000 people. Schools were suspended, travel restrictions were imposed, public swimming pools and parks remain closed. And yet – 252 people died there in the latest data.

And just imagine building not one, but two hospitals in as many weeks here. By the time you completed the paperwork, inspections, zoning abatements, environmental sign-offs, permits and myriad other “particulars” required before you even broke ground, the crisis would have ended, and not well, I dare say.

Now -- Let’s look at the latest data

Coronavirus (Covid-19) Global Penetration Statistics by Country as of 3/15/2020 08:00 GMT



Data Image Copyright © 2020 by Marc Sheppard

I just downloaded the latest datasets and reran my analysis code. Let’s take a look.

China still looking good – only 22 new cases and 9 new deaths, and 1464 new recoveries. Korea added 76 cases (compared to 107 yesterday) and only 3 deaths.

On the bleaker side, in the latest data, Spain added 1522, France 838 and Germany 733 cases, compared to 1227, 785 and 693, respectively. New deaths were 15, 12 and 3, respectively. Then again, Spain registered 324 recoveries today – that’s 62.66% of Spain’s recoveries, all in 1 day.

Iran added 1,365 cases and 97 deaths since yesterday.

But Italy only added 90 new cases today (compared to 2,547 yesterday) and 527 recoveries, but also 173 new deaths, bringing their mortality to 8.12 % and infection rate to .029357 % (1 in 3,406).

And the US? Up 777 cases to 2,951 and 10 deaths in the latest data. That still equates to nearly 75% of US cases being reported in the past 5 days. Infection rate has risen to 0.000892 % (that’s 1 in 112,108 Americans, still a VERY low number). Still only 5 recoveries in past 15 days, but that corresponds to the low age of the caseload here. US Mortality is a nominal 1.93%, but AGAIN, this figure is overblown as previously explained.

To recap – Europe could be in real trouble. While Spain, France and Germany are in the midst of surges in both cases and fatalities (notwithstanding the latter dropping off a bit today), they’re in relatively good shape compared to Italy. With 58% of its 17,660 new cases and 71% of its 1268 deaths occurring in the past 5 days (as of yesterday), and 48 % of its 17,750 new cases and 67.80 % of its 1,441 deaths occurring in the past 5 days (as of today) the numbers don’t tell a promising story for Italy, notwithstanding today’s “better” results.

Asia appears to be in much better shape, with numbers for high case-counts China and South Korea apparently on track for a happy ending.

The fact that neither Africa nor South America appear to be infected (yet) is telling. Or is it?

And what does it all mean for America, whose numbers suggest a story told with a decidedly European accent?

I hear a lot of talk of the need to “flatten the curve” of new cases. As a data analyst rather than physician or epidemiologist, it seems to me that the recovery and mortality rates are comorbid indicators, of equal if not greater significance to the case-count as together they measure the severity of the disease rather than its proliferation. And that, my friends, may very well determine just how this story ends.

Graphic credit: Pickpik

Marc Sheppard is a data analyst, software engineer, and writer. He’s been a frequent contributor to American Thinker and welcomes your mshep@optonline.com.

One of the fastest and already proven treatments that could help....

https://medicalxpress.com/news/2020-03-antibodies-covid-survivors-patients.html

Sample quote

With a vaccine for COVID-19 still a long way from being realized, Johns Hopkins immunologist Arturo Casadevall is working to revive a century-old blood-derived treatment for use in the United States in hopes of slowing the spread of the disease.

With the right pieces in place, the treatment could be set up at Johns Hopkins University in Baltimore within a matter of weeks, Casadevall says.

The technique uses antibodies from the blood plasma or serum of people who have recovered from COVID-19 infection to boost the immunity of newly infected patients and those at risk of contracting the disease. These antibodies contained in the blood's serum have the ability to bind to and neutralize SARS-CoV-2, the virus that causes COVID-19. Casadevall—a Bloomberg Distinguished Professor of molecular microbiology and immunology and infectious diseases at the Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health and School of Medicine—published a paper on the proposal today in The Journal of Clinical Investigation.

"Deployment of this option requires no research or development," he says. "It could be deployed within a couple of weeks since it relies on standard blood-banking practices."

In this case, physicians would ask patients who recover from COVID-19 to donate their blood, from which sera would be isolated. After processing the serum and removing other toxins or trace illnesses, it can be injected into sick patients and those at risk of contracting the disease. The procedure for isolating serum or plasma is a long-established technology that can be performed using equipment normally found in hospitals and blood-banking facilities, and recent advances make it as safe as a blood transfusion, Casadevall says.

End quote

https://medicalxpress.com/news/2020-03-simple-calm-coronavirus-uncertainty.html

Sample quote

"The human mind is automatically attracted to the worst possible case, often very inaccurately," says Martin Seligman, who founded the field of Positive Psychology and runs Penn's Positive Psychology Center. "Catastrophizing is an evolutionarily adaptive frame of mind, but it is usually unrealistically negative."

To refocus the mind, Seligman suggests a simple exercise called "Put It in Perspective," which starts by conjuring the worst-case scenario, which our minds tend to do first, then moves to best-case scenario, and finishes with the most likely scenario. The idea is to redirect your thoughts from irrational to rational.

End quote

In a 'movie' about rushing a vaccine out for a minor virus. While not based on true facts, they did enough research of the worlds medical records to write the script.

Movie I AM LEGEND

OMEGA MAN - Heston 1970s... among other virus movies...

Someone mentioned the US Navy having Hospital ships to house these quarateened people. That I know they have only 2 and I do not know the status of them. You can read about them here http://www.navalorder.org/articles/2016/8/28/an-overview-of-hospital-ships

Most of the WW2 Hospital ships were AH- and were US Army Hospital (AH) ships piloted by US NAVY crews. I had a few family members serve on board these ships in WW2.
AH-6 USS Comfort was decommissioned is used as a training ship.
AH-7 USS Hope was scrapped in 1978.
AH-8 USS Mercy was scrapped in 1970.

TODAY’S HOSPITAL SHIPS
USNS MERCY
Today, the Navy operates two dedicated hospital ships, the USNS Mercy (T-AH-19). and the USNS Comfort (T-AH-20). Both ships were converted from San Clemente-class supertankers. Mercy was on line in 1986 and Comfort launched in 1987. They are huge, equivalent to the height of a 10-story building and the length of three football fields. Both serve as 70,000-metric-ton symbols of how much America cares as a nation and as a people. If a tanker can be transformed into a symbol of hope, consider how the Mercy and Comfort transform the health-care professionals aboard.

Six Bay Area counties just issued a stay in place order.

That was here. I am in North Kenner and the hospital is the one I had chemo in.
We also have a large undocumented amount of persons here.

NSAIDS and COVID19

https://www.snopes.com/fact-check/covid-19-nsaids-ibuprofen/

Although Snopes declares “unproven”
the majority of the MD ask by Snopes seem to say it is good advice regardless because of NSAID induced Liver damage and immune system suppression.

Snopes? Really? Yeah I'm taking their advice. Pretty much everything is unproven at this point since it is so new.

Hospital ships of the past were basically floating ambulances with staff to support injured.
IIt would be nice if the thousands of storage containers could be modified, insulated and made washable/sanitizable and pressed into service?

To be blunt, the ONLY places to rely on for DEFINITIVE information about the COVID-19 virus are the US CDC and The World Health Organization. Anything else is nonsense. Period.

CDC COVID-19

WHO COVID-19

If everyone took a minute to comprehend the gravity of the situation and willingly follows the guidelines recommended by the CDC and WHO to prevent the spread of the virus, we will beat it in short order. If people continue to mistrust that information and ignore the warnings, we will be in for a long, uphill battle.

I for one am not looking forward to being holed up in my house for the next two months.

Isn't there a concept tossed around that Viruses like this, as they flush thru society, they become, less lethal, in that the most robust virus strains kills off the (ie self limiting) host, and the weaker versions last longer, and therefore can spread farther?
A lot would depend on how fast it mutates.

All to mean, if you caught COVID from a person who succumbs, you might be at greater risk then from some one who recovers?

1 person is all it ever takes, flu, chicken pox, common cold etc.

These "experts" never seem to compare stats to other outbreaks like H1N1 Swine Flu. How many cases how fast, vs how many fatalities over the same time frame.

The Spanish Flu which was an H1N1 virus, spread across the globe like wildfire and killed millions and I think all you had to do to be in the risk of dying group was to be still breathing. Everybody was at risk because apparently when that virus sprang to life there was very little natural Human immunity to it. I read somewhere that that's the same reason this Corona Virus is claimed to be so dangerous, very little natural Human immunity and yet the serious risk group is actually quite limited given its pandemic status.

If we were this deep into "just the flu" season, everybody on this board would know somebody with the flu if they didn't already have it themselves. I'm just not seeing that kind of contagious spread.

While I don't deny there is serious risk to some by ignoring the whole thing, this mass hysteria reaction just defies logic and people that stand to make a lot of money off the fear of the virus or stand to loose a lot of money from it seem to be pouring gas on the fire either from their actions or lack thereof.

Kevin

Wow, so you are saying should we have another outbreak like the first H1N1, Spanish flu it's OK because the serious risk group is small? You know, the elderly and the medically compromised? Don't worry kids, it's just the old people, go out and have a good time!

Have you read anything on what is going on Italy? Their health care system is overrun, Because of the lack of available hospital beds and equipment like respirators they are having to make decisions on who gets treatments. The more likely to succumb to the virus you are the less likely you will be treated. You are also saying China and South Korea over reacted? Even when they have the capability to address large scale needs? The whole reason for the actions is so we don't have a repeat of the original H1N1 outbreak. This is not "just the flu" for many people. Besides there are flu shots every year which although not totally effective, they do keep the number of cases down. There are also therapeutic treatments for the flu. If I got the flu I would be concerned about getting pneumonia and would seek treatment immediately. If I get Covid-19 there probably wouldn't be a treatment in the world that would save me from getting pneumonia, and getting pneumonia again would, in all probability kill me.

But I guess in your mind it's OK since I'm 63.

The ill are not bound to old age. I'm surprised that Nevada is reporting:
A male in his 20s who is isolating at home and is a close contact of a confirmed case.
A female in her 40s who is hospitalized in good condition.
A female in her 50s who is hospitalized in stable condition.
A male in his 30s who is isolated at home.
A female in her 30s. No additional details are available at this time.
A female in her 70s. No additional details are available at this time
A male in his 50s. No additional details are available at this time.
A male in his 30s who is isolating at home.
Previously Reported Case Updates
A male in his 40s who is isolating at home.
A male in his 60s who is isolating at home.
A male in his 60s who is in serious condition.
A female in her 70s who is isolating at home and is a close contact of a previously reported case.
A male in his 60s who is isolating at home and is a close contact of a previously reported case.
A female in her 40s who was hospitalized on March 8. She is isolated and in stable condition. This individual is a visitor from New York. She arrived in Las Vegas on March 5, and attended the Women of Power Summit at The Mirage.
A female in her 70s with underlying medical conditions with in-state travel history to Reno, Nev., and no out-of-state or international travel history. The patient was asymptomatic while traveling. The patient remains hospitalized in serious condition.
A male in his 50s with a travel history to Washington state. The patient remains hospitalized in serious condition.
This partially supports what you write GJ and begs the question as to why precious hospital beds are occupied by youngish and perhaps carefree adults.
As I get ready to turn in for the day I listened to the news, knowing that tomorrow the sun will rise and more tests will be reported and the numbers of ill and deceased will have increased. It will be a great day when the numbers growth slows and with hope stop.
Only after we lay the unfortunate to rest will we realize the toll our world has borne. This will test the resolve and stability of nations and there will be puddles of tears at feet of lady liberty.