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Re: who is bailing on stocks? [Re: dIc dOc Deity !] #2747551
02/28/20 09:23 PM
02/28/20 09:23 PM
Joined: Jan 2005
Posts: 4,369
Michigan
MarkZ Offline
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Michigan
It's hard to say where the bottom is going to be. Market is reacting COVID19 and not because of some structural failure - sub-prime loans, junk bonds, etc. China has absolute huge swathes of its population under quarantine and factories are sitting idle. Was just a matter of time before that rippled across global markets. If the infection rate gets under control and the Israelis (or Australians, or Chinese) get that vaccine put together quickly, who knows?

Last edited by MarkM; 02/28/20 09:25 PM.

1987 Fifth Avenue - 512/518/D60
Re: who is bailing on stocks? [Re: MarkZ] #2747569
02/28/20 10:14 PM
02/28/20 10:14 PM
Joined: Jun 2004
Posts: 9,404
Texas
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carcrazyguy Offline
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Looking like we will see some more virus cases popping up over the weekend. Certainly not the best news but also kind of expected to see that over the next week or two. The good thing is that, here in the US, you are NOT seeing a high mortality rate with those infected. I would love to see a patient demographic study on those in the US. Is it mainly people with weaker immune systems? Is it mainly younger people, older people or what?


I personally think we have another 10-20% of downward free fall.....IF.....more cases start coming up next week. The real downside will come...IF.....clusters start breaking out and people start dying off in large numbers. HOWEVER....from what we have seen so far. The mortality rate here in the US is zero, so far. If that continues for the next 2-3 weeks I think we move right back up the stairway.

Last edited by carcrazyguy; 02/28/20 10:18 PM.
Re: who is bailing on stocks? [Re: carcrazyguy] #2747574
02/28/20 10:31 PM
02/28/20 10:31 PM
Joined: Jul 2008
Posts: 30,253
Florida STAYcation
dIc dOc Deity ! Offline
The village idiot's idiot
dIc dOc Deity !  Offline
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Florida STAYcation
Which specific stockS have taken the biggest hits ?

Some might totally LOSE that specific business like travel or cruise lines OR dining out ... but bigger ticket items like appliances or phones or cars might be delayed

Re: who is bailing on stocks? [Re: dIc dOc Deity !] #2747576
02/28/20 10:40 PM
02/28/20 10:40 PM
Joined: Aug 2019
Posts: 9,308
Super Spudsville
Mr PotatoHead Offline
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Mr PotatoHead  Offline
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Panic Panic Panic, as of right not for everyone here posting the odds of getting and dying from this is about the same as a great white attacking you while walking in DT Nashville, unless you buy into the sharknado B movie series.


STOP POTATO HATE!
Re: who is bailing on stocks? [Re: dIc dOc Deity !] #2747579
02/28/20 10:47 PM
02/28/20 10:47 PM
Joined: Jun 2004
Posts: 9,404
Texas
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carcrazyguy Offline
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I don’t know that finding the stock down the most is the key. The key is to find the best companies at a discounted price. Take cruise lines for instance. They suffered a beating this week (but I think they bounced today). However I would take Visa or Mastercard over any cruise line, at about any price. I think like....what is something that people use or depend on all the time that they can’t do without. If I buy Visa or Mastercard....I don’t have to worry about where people shop, eat, what brand of company they travel with....as long as they use their credit card. It doesn’t matter if they buy in a store or online....as long as they use a card.

That is why I buy VISA, local utility companies like electric and gas companies. People can’t do without those. Doesn’t matter if a virus or war or good times or bad times....people will need/use those.....

If it were not for a virus....I would add AAPL, AMZN and Goog to those. However I personally feel that aapl and amzn are likely to suffer deeper loses over the next few quarters because of the China exposure they have. Goog has some other pending litigation issues that could set the stock back if it is not a favorable outcome. If the stock has already taken a beating a large settlement could cause the stock to lose support here at/near a critical level.

Last edited by carcrazyguy; 02/28/20 10:56 PM.
Re: who is bailing on stocks? [Re: carcrazyguy] #2747584
02/28/20 10:58 PM
02/28/20 10:58 PM
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Texas
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carcrazyguy Offline
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Also here is useful site to keep up with the total number of virus cases, in case anyone cares.

https://www.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6



Not sure how accurate that tracker is. That site shows 64 confirmed cases in the USA, which includes the cruise passengers and citizens flown back to the US military bases for quarantine/treatment. However the official CDC
numbers of true confirmed cases is 15. I tend to believe the CDC over the tracker.

1C411D6C-C07E-4515-A4CE-65EF79A7D073.jpeg
Last edited by carcrazyguy; 02/28/20 11:20 PM.
Re: who is bailing on stocks? [Re: carcrazyguy] #2747608
02/29/20 12:46 AM
02/29/20 12:46 AM
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Texas
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carcrazyguy Offline
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Here is a Emergency Room director talking about that is like a MILD flu. A very large portion of people that contract the virus, will be able to fight it off. However people with weakend immune systems, COPD, diabetics and respiratory issues are the one most likely to contract a dead form of the virus. Basically their weakend immune systems cause pneumonia to set in.
https://www.fox4news.com/news/er-di...ike-mild-form-of-the-flu-for-most-people

Last edited by carcrazyguy; 02/29/20 12:46 AM.
Re: who is bailing on stocks? [Re: carcrazyguy] #2747627
02/29/20 03:08 AM
02/29/20 03:08 AM
Joined: Jan 2003
Posts: 3,122
Auburn WA
Dave_J Offline
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Auburn WA
I am staying pat, no panic.... YET

I was forced to retire in Dec 2016. So I can not buy any shares in my IRA or Roth IRA. Otherwise I'd take my $130,000 in a 3% annuity and just buy some IRA shares. My funds are down $2.20 a share. I know I have lost $75,000+ in face value just since Monday. But I will let it ride.

The only PANIC thing I did was stop my March 1st monthly $3500 auto draw off my traditional IRA as I do have my military retirement check, my VA disability check, and my SS oldfart check. The $3500 goes mostly on my Mortgage Principal only. I can skip a month. Bought 12 years ago at $350K. Is valued at $735K but owe $147K due to paying extra principal. With a $24,800 Standard Deduction, having Mortgage interest and property tax deduction does not make enough over that $24,800 standard.

But if you are over 70 1/2 years old you MUST be taking a Required Minimum Distribution (RMD) or the IRS will hit you with a 50% of the RMD as a fine. So you must be selling shares at this low time. Hope you can time it right without getting fined.


Retired, US ARMY 1973-1994
ASE mechanic, Electrical 1994-1997
Retired GTE/VERIZON/FRONTIER 1997-2015


Posting cheap tech help (CRAP) here since Nov 97, 1000's of posts, some may be good.

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98 Buick Regal (wifes car)
Re: who is bailing on stocks? [Re: Dave_J] #2747658
02/29/20 08:42 AM
02/29/20 08:42 AM
Joined: Dec 2007
Posts: 19,774
Puttin' on the foil in Charles...
not_a_charger Offline
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Posts: 19,774
Puttin' on the foil in Charles...
Finished the week down about $135k overall. I'm 48, so I'm not nearing retirement, which is why I'm invested more aggressively. I'm not about to sell and turn a paper loss into a real loss. I hope those who chose to sell are able to recover. It will be a steep hill to climb.


Earning every penny of that moderator paycheck.

DBAP
Re: who is bailing on stocks? [Re: not_a_charger] #2747660
02/29/20 08:47 AM
02/29/20 08:47 AM
Joined: Dec 2003
Posts: 22,695
Bitopia
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jcc Offline
If you can't dazzle em with diamonds..
jcc  Offline
If you can't dazzle em with diamonds..
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Bitopia
Not directed at any one individual. but this reminds me so much of the banter here in 08. work


Reality check, that half the population is smarter then 50% of the people and it's a constantly contested fact.
Re: who is bailing on stocks? [Re: jcc] #2747674
02/29/20 09:54 AM
02/29/20 09:54 AM
Joined: May 2018
Posts: 92
Minnesota
TrackPack Offline
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TrackPack  Offline
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Minnesota
I rode that one down to the bottom, won't do that again. Took eight years to recover those losses.

Re: who is bailing on stocks? [Re: pittsburghracer] #2747675
02/29/20 09:57 AM
02/29/20 09:57 AM
Joined: May 2018
Posts: 92
Minnesota
TrackPack Offline
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TrackPack  Offline
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Minnesota
Quote
How much did that move cost you. Damn.


Normal fees. It's just moving money around in a 401K.

Last edited by TrackPack; 02/29/20 09:58 AM.
Re: who is bailing on stocks? [Re: TrackPack] #2747701
02/29/20 11:35 AM
02/29/20 11:35 AM
Joined: Feb 2005
Posts: 20,116
PA.
pittsburghracer Online work
"Little"John
pittsburghracer  Online Work
"Little"John

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PA.
Originally Posted by TrackPack
Quote
How much did that move cost you. Damn.


Normal fees. It's just moving money around in a 401K.




No I mean after dropping 3500 points and selling after the drop you took a paper loss and turned it into a real loss. Sure I lost money on paper most of the week but Friday I was back up 575.00. Not bad for another market down day.


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Re: who is bailing on stocks? [Re: Hemi_Joel] #2747711
02/29/20 12:07 PM
02/29/20 12:07 PM
Joined: Jan 2006
Posts: 8,162
USA
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360view Offline
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360view  Offline
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USA
The original idea of a
“Hedge Fund”
was that in addition to
buying stocks hoping for rising prices,
the Hedge Fund managers would also buy
futures contracts/puts/calls as “insurance” or “hedges” against falling prices.

By balancing these two ideas
the large number of Hedge Fund customers
were to gain something like 3% less yield than the total market long term yield,
but 90% of the time never have a loss.

This present drop of less than 4000 points on the DJI from 28,000
is just a bit more than a common place “correction”
but are there any Hedge Funds that have used the original idea to at least stay at zero loss?

For comparison
the average yield of large USA pension fund managers over the last fifty years has been about
6% above the inflation rate.

Re: who is bailing on stocks? [Re: TrackPack] #2747736
02/29/20 01:38 PM
02/29/20 01:38 PM
Joined: Jan 2011
Posts: 15,713
Central Florida
larrymopar360 Offline
Stud Muffin
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Posts: 15,713
Central Florida
Originally Posted by TrackPack
I rode that one down to the bottom, won't do that again. Took eight years to recover those losses.
Yes, but what was the cause of the last one?


Facts are stubborn things.
Re: who is bailing on stocks? [Re: larrymopar360] #2747743
02/29/20 01:59 PM
02/29/20 01:59 PM
Joined: Jun 2004
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Texas
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carcrazyguy Offline
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Texas
The key is to buy on the way down.....and the way up! Dollar cost average investing has never, not worked in the history of the stock market. The part that screwed me was we used several money management firms in the early part of our investing. They were losing money in up years of the market. Once I took over the account and bought high quality stocks...we started making huge gains. The money management companies fees were more than our gains when they had us in mutual funds and target date funds.

Re: who is bailing on stocks? [Re: jcc] #2747795
02/29/20 04:36 PM
02/29/20 04:36 PM
Joined: Jan 2003
Posts: 3,122
Auburn WA
Dave_J Offline
master
Dave_J  Offline
master

Joined: Jan 2003
Posts: 3,122
Auburn WA
True or not.... you can't go thru life like this:

Ostrich in sand.gif

Retired, US ARMY 1973-1994
ASE mechanic, Electrical 1994-1997
Retired GTE/VERIZON/FRONTIER 1997-2015


Posting cheap tech help (CRAP) here since Nov 97, 1000's of posts, some may be good.

03 Suzuki Burgman 650(Burger King) Scooter
65 Formula S Cuda
78 Little Red Express Truck
98 Buick Regal (wifes car)
Re: who is bailing on stocks? [Re: carcrazyguy] #2747882
02/29/20 10:03 PM
02/29/20 10:03 PM
Joined: Jan 2003
Posts: 7,471
Minnesota
Hemi_Joel Offline OP
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Hemi_Joel  Offline OP
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Minnesota
Originally Posted by carcrazyguy
The key is to buy on the way down.....and the way up!


Interesting, I usually wait till I think we are past the free fall. (I was once advised never to try and catch a falling knife.) But your idea makes sense, so you are not too late on the reversal.


[img]http://i.imgur.com/boeexFms.jpg[/img]
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I don't regret the things I've done. I only regret the things I didn't do.
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Re: who is bailing on stocks? [Re: Hemi_Joel] #2747884
02/29/20 10:11 PM
02/29/20 10:11 PM
Joined: Aug 2019
Posts: 9,308
Super Spudsville
Mr PotatoHead Offline
Half Baked
Mr PotatoHead  Offline
Half Baked

Joined: Aug 2019
Posts: 9,308
Super Spudsville
I was once advised never to try and catch a falling knife.

Would you if it were falling toward the top of your bare foot?


STOP POTATO HATE!
Re: who is bailing on stocks? [Re: Hemi_Joel] #2747886
02/29/20 10:16 PM
02/29/20 10:16 PM
Joined: Jan 2003
Posts: 7,471
Minnesota
Hemi_Joel Offline OP
master
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Posts: 7,471
Minnesota
When my Brother in law was about 55, he had his whole retirement in xerox, he worked there his whole career. Lots of $$ built up when the stock was at $150. Then it crashed. He rode it down. When it was at about half, of what it was he bought more, all he could afford. then it went all the way down under $10. He was wiped out. He worked well into his 70's before retiring. Now, 20 years later, Xerox has never recovered. THere is no guarantee that if you ride your stocks down that they will ever recover.
I paid attention. I'm 60, I want to retire before I turn 75. If I see trouble, I'm getting on the sidelines fast. I don't lose anything by taking a profit and sitting out. I lose POTENTIAL profit, but I also shield myself from potential loss.

Last edited by Hemi_Joel; 02/29/20 10:19 PM.

[img]http://i.imgur.com/boeexFms.jpg[/img]
31 Plymouth Coupe, 392 Hemi, T56 magnum
RS23J71
RS27J77
RP23J71
RO23J71
WM21J8A
I don't regret the things I've done. I only regret the things I didn't do.
"Wise men talk because they have something to say; fools because they have to say something. ~ Plato"
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