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Re: Noticing & hearing about unusual "economic" slowdowns local [Re: srt] #2721526
12/04/19 10:20 PM
12/04/19 10:20 PM
Joined: Aug 2005
Posts: 327
Kings Beach, CA
T
tahoechallenge Offline
enthusiast
tahoechallenge  Offline
enthusiast
T

Joined: Aug 2005
Posts: 327
Kings Beach, CA
I haven't noticed any slowdown here in Tahoe. Reno is still going crazy. Truck traffic on I 80 has backed off from the summer.
I did notice a change in busyness on my Thanksgiving trip to Southern CA. Maybe it was the weather, but I made the comment to my wife that it felt like that area was already in a recession. We were in Palm Desert for Thanksgiving, and then Orange County for the weekend. I was amazed how little traffic there was on Monday as we drove form the coast to Cajon pass.

Re: Noticing & hearing about unusual "economic" slowdowns local [Re: 19swinger70] #2721537
12/04/19 10:57 PM
12/04/19 10:57 PM
Joined: Jan 2003
Posts: 7,116
Freeport IL USA
P
poorboy Offline
master
poorboy  Offline
master
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Joined: Jan 2003
Posts: 7,116
Freeport IL USA
The world as we know it is going to end, sooner or later...
I'm pretty happy to be debt free right now, but I'm afraid I'm not going to help this current consumer driven economy by going into debt for something I don't really need. I don't believe I am alone in this thought process. A lot of people I know are joining in the debt free personal life style, or working real hard to get there. I believe the debt free people will weather the coming storm better then those that are not.
I think the next couple years may be a rough ride for many people. Unfortunately, I believe its the working class that is going to take the hit again. The irresponsible people, with or without money, are going to be the cause of the next downturn, whenever it comes. And make no mistake, one is coming, sooner or later. Don't get me wrong, things are pretty good right now, and I'm going to enjoy it as long as it lasts. Gene

Re: Noticing & hearing about unusual "economic" slowdowns local [Re: RobG] #2721560
12/05/19 01:49 AM
12/05/19 01:49 AM
Joined: Jun 2006
Posts: 11,692
(Central) PA
Runner2go Offline
I Live Here
Runner2go  Offline
I Live Here

Joined: Jun 2006
Posts: 11,692
(Central) PA
Originally Posted by RobG
Frankenmuth was a victim to the local media and there severe winter storm warnings. Thursday was an overcast day and Friday thru Sunday there were threats of the ice storm and up to 6 inches of snow. I traveled up to Traverse City and the roads were empty on Friday. and on Friday night . . . over 3/4 of an inch of freezing rain fell from the sky. You know how every winter storm front is over publicized by the local TV news as a "Death Storm".

Not only the local stations... the Weather Channel now "Name's" every snow storm as if it's a frickin Hurricane. I would love to see someone do a detailed study on the "loss of economic activity" directly related to TWC over hyping of storms. Because people do stay home when the only thing they hear is how they're gonna die if they get caught on the roads when "it" finally hits. We were supposed to get a "1/2" of ICE followed by several inches of snow. We got dick... well it rained some. rolleyes

As to the original question...
Help wanted signs are still up all over the place around here.... more than I've seen in long long time. I did NOT go out on Black Friday... but on Saturday store parking lots here, and where I went in Delaware were packed full. It took me almost 20min to find a spot I could park my truck at the Best Buy near the Christiana Mall in DE on sat night... The guys working said it had been like that since Friday morning. So I'm convinced the economy is still doing fine, despite the doom & gloom put forth on msnbc, cnn, and especially on Bloomberg this week.


1966 383, 4-sp Charger 35yrs
1970 440+6, 4-sp Road Runner 33yrs
1974 360, auto Challenger 22yrs,in Family 38yrs
2003 Ram 2500 QCLB 4x4 Cummins HO
2009 5.7L 300c (The Wife's)
2010 5.7L R/T 6sp Challenger - Mopar10
2018 392 Daytona Charger
Re: Noticing & hearing about unusual "economic" slowdowns local [Re: 360view] #2721570
12/05/19 06:09 AM
12/05/19 06:09 AM
Joined: Jan 2006
Posts: 5,184
USA
3
360view Offline
master
360view  Offline
master
3

Joined: Jan 2006
Posts: 5,184
USA
Leading indicators that happen BEFORE a recession has started:
2 year bond interest rates rise above 10 year interest rates. Known as an “Inversion”

Lagging indicators that happen AFTER a recession has started:
Consumer spending decrease
rise in unemployment,
auto sales,
house prices

Re: Noticing & hearing about unusual "economic" slowdowns local [Re: 360view] #2721579
12/05/19 06:56 AM
12/05/19 06:56 AM
Joined: Apr 2005
Posts: 3,996
new berlin wisconsin
M
Mr T2U Offline
master
Mr T2U  Offline
master
M

Joined: Apr 2005
Posts: 3,996
new berlin wisconsin
i work in a new car dealer body shop.
this year has been the slowest that i can remember in at least the last 5 years. i would estimate my income is down 30% over 2 years ago.

in my observation in my area anything auto repair or sales related has slowed significantly.


perception is 90% of reality
Re: Noticing & hearing about unusual "economic" slowdowns local [Re: 360view] #2721607
12/05/19 09:08 AM
12/05/19 09:08 AM
Joined: Jan 2003
Posts: 9,276
Fragged State of Skuldruggery
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srt Offline
master
srt  Offline
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S

Joined: Jan 2003
Posts: 9,276
Fragged State of Skuldruggery
I agree with 360view on those indicators and the effect can be found on dot gov sites
Treasury Dept Data: Here <-
and Bureau of Economic Analysis Data: Here <-
The data is sometimes revised a month or two after publishing.

Re: Noticing & hearing about unusual "economic" slowdowns local [Re: srt] #2721633
12/05/19 10:25 AM
12/05/19 10:25 AM
Joined: Dec 2003
Posts: 18,346
Trumussia
J
jcc Offline
No politics
jcc  Offline
No politics
J

Joined: Dec 2003
Posts: 18,346
Trumussia
Yea I remember the years before 07, the "experts" were predicting for years a "downturn" during the boom, boy were they wrong, it was a "great recession". eyes


"Perfection is the enemy of Excellence" German Engineer
Re: Noticing & hearing about unusual "economic" slowdowns local [Re: jcc] #2721692
12/05/19 01:24 PM
12/05/19 01:24 PM
Joined: Oct 2007
Posts: 3,194
State of Jefferson
hooziewhatsit Offline
master
hooziewhatsit  Offline
master

Joined: Oct 2007
Posts: 3,194
State of Jefferson
Remember that while GDP may be doing great, it doesn't actually measure how our people are doing. Remember when that one guy said the unemployment numbers were fake news? Well, he was right, and they're still fake news laugh2 (well, at best they're misleading, since they don't include those who gave up on finding work)

https://www.npr.org/2019/12/05/784451583/despite-job-boom-more-men-are-giving-up-on-work

Automation and AI are great for GDP, but can be absolutely terrible for the people left behind.

Edited to remove names

Last edited by hooziewhatsit; 12/05/19 03:40 PM.

If you ever find yourself in a fair fight, your tactics suck.
Re: Noticing & hearing about unusual "economic" slowdowns local [Re: hooziewhatsit] #2721741
12/05/19 03:28 PM
12/05/19 03:28 PM
Joined: Aug 2019
Posts: 307
Spudsville
Mr. Potatohead Online penguin-006
The member formerly known as..EV2..
Mr. Potatohead  Online Penguin-006
The member formerly known as..EV2..

Joined: Aug 2019
Posts: 307
Spudsville

Good deal, that should kill it, since when can we openly talk of Trump or Obama? Cause I know alot of us have something to say on it, but we cant here.


Originally Posted by hooziewhatsit
Remember that while GDP may be doing great, it doesn't actually measure how our people are doing. Remember when Trump said the unemployment numbers under Obama were fake news? Well, he was right, and they're still fake news laugh2 (well, at best they're misleading, since they don't include those who gave up on finding work)

https://www.npr.org/2019/12/05/784451583/despite-job-boom-more-men-are-giving-up-on-work

Automation and AI are great for GDP, but can be absolutely terrible for the people left behind.


My family is a bunch of Fruits and Vegetables and many cant tell us apart. EAT ME!
Re: Noticing & hearing about unusual "economic" slowdowns local [Re: Mr. Potatohead] #2721745
12/05/19 03:32 PM
12/05/19 03:32 PM
Joined: Jun 2005
Posts: 4,436
Western Md.
skicker Offline
Son of Doc Fiberglass
skicker  Offline
Son of Doc Fiberglass

Joined: Jun 2005
Posts: 4,436
Western Md.
lock

IBTL


Loving all the tears... bawling

Sorry Doc...

We'll try again in 2 years...up

Edited...Looks like it will be 6 years...biggrin
Re: Noticing & hearing about unusual "economic" slowdowns local [Re: Mr. Potatohead] #2721746
12/05/19 03:37 PM
12/05/19 03:37 PM
Joined: Jul 2004
Posts: 3,127
Arlington, Texas
B
bobby66 Offline
master
bobby66  Offline
master
B

Joined: Jul 2004
Posts: 3,127
Arlington, Texas
I've been working 56-84 hours a week since june. The next two weeks i'm on the schedule for 68 hours each. I wouldn't mind a little slow down.


B
Re: Noticing & hearing about unusual "economic" slowdowns local [Re: Mr. Potatohead] #2721748
12/05/19 03:41 PM
12/05/19 03:41 PM
Joined: Oct 2007
Posts: 3,194
State of Jefferson
hooziewhatsit Offline
master
hooziewhatsit  Offline
master

Joined: Oct 2007
Posts: 3,194
State of Jefferson
Originally Posted by Mr. Potatohead

Good deal, that should kill it, since when can we openly talk of Trump or Obama? Cause I know alot of us have something to say on it, but we cant here.


Originally Posted by hooziewhatsit
Remember that while GDP may be doing great, it doesn't actually measure how our people are doing. Remember when Trump said the unemployment numbers under Obama were fake news? Well, he was right, and they're still fake news laugh2 (well, at best they're misleading, since they don't include those who gave up on finding work)

https://www.npr.org/2019/12/05/784451583/despite-job-boom-more-men-are-giving-up-on-work

Automation and AI are great for GDP, but can be absolutely terrible for the people left behind.


You're right. I edited it. There's a lot of people that point to the unemployment numbers, and while they're good, they don't tell the entire picture.


If you ever find yourself in a fair fight, your tactics suck.
Re: Noticing & hearing about unusual "economic" slowdowns local [Re: hooziewhatsit] #2721752
12/05/19 03:55 PM
12/05/19 03:55 PM
Joined: May 2019
Posts: 981
nowhere
S
Sniper Offline
super stock
Sniper  Offline
super stock
S

Joined: May 2019
Posts: 981
nowhere
Originally Posted by hooziewhatsit
Originally Posted by Mr. Potatohead

Good deal, that should kill it, since when can we openly talk of Trump or Obama? Cause I know alot of us have something to say on it, but we cant here.


Originally Posted by hooziewhatsit
Remember that while GDP may be doing great, it doesn't actually measure how our people are doing. Remember when Trump said the unemployment numbers under Obama were fake news? Well, he was right, and they're still fake news laugh2 (well, at best they're misleading, since they don't include those who gave up on finding work)

https://www.npr.org/2019/12/05/784451583/despite-job-boom-more-men-are-giving-up-on-work

Automation and AI are great for GDP, but can be absolutely terrible for the people left behind.


You're right. I edited it. There's a lot of people that point to the unemployment numbers, and while they're good, they don't tell the entire picture.


As long as the same metrics are being used to compare year to year changes then it's still a valid comparison.

BTW, the UE numbers that include "discouraged" workers is available so your choice to not use them is your choice.

As for the bond market 2 and 10 year notes, the causation of this inversion is due to foreign money being invested in our bond market that pays interest, rather than in foreign markets with negative interest. This is a unique situation and has never been the cause of this so called leading indicator in the past. So it's relevance is, at best, very limited.

Re: Noticing & hearing about unusual "economic" slowdowns local [Re: hooziewhatsit] #2721758
12/05/19 04:06 PM
12/05/19 04:06 PM
Joined: Jan 2003
Posts: 2,066
Oklahoma City
Jwilli500 Offline
top fuel
Jwilli500  Offline
top fuel

Joined: Jan 2003
Posts: 2,066
Oklahoma City
A lot of our economy here is tied to the oil field. Just a few days ago Halliburton announced they're closing the El Reno Yard to the tune of about 800 jobs lost.
Some of them will go to their Duncan yard but who knows how many. My son drives for FedEx Freight and a lot of their freight is oil field related. My son said they're
slow enough right now that they may lay off a few drivers soon. See a lot of pipe stacked in various yards locally which is an indicator that drilling has slowed down.
Sometimes the oil field is pretty cyclical in nature, so it may or may not pick up soon. shruggy

Re: Noticing & hearing about unusual "economic" slowdowns local [Re: skicker] #2721762
12/05/19 04:14 PM
12/05/19 04:14 PM
Joined: Sep 2003
Posts: 12,344
north of coder
moparx Offline
"Butt Crack Bob"
moparx  Offline
"Butt Crack Bob"

Joined: Sep 2003
Posts: 12,344
north of coder
Originally Posted by skicker
lock

IBTL



me too ! lock
beer

Re: Noticing & hearing about unusual "economic" slowdowns local [Re: moparx] #2721764
12/05/19 04:19 PM
12/05/19 04:19 PM
Joined: Aug 2019
Posts: 307
Spudsville
Mr. Potatohead Online penguin-006
The member formerly known as..EV2..
Mr. Potatohead  Online Penguin-006
The member formerly known as..EV2..

Joined: Aug 2019
Posts: 307
Spudsville
I never thought id ever say im glad this is just a car site and other things are limited, only I say this because we cant fix stupid and I tire of it easily. AND this is not directed at any one person or party, the web is full of places for master debaters. Im thinking most the time I just like cars, and the rest of my time my wife and family.


My family is a bunch of Fruits and Vegetables and many cant tell us apart. EAT ME!
Re: Noticing & hearing about unusual "economic" slowdowns local [Re: moparx] #2721767
12/05/19 04:25 PM
12/05/19 04:25 PM
Joined: Sep 2003
Posts: 12,344
north of coder
moparx Offline
"Butt Crack Bob"
moparx  Offline
"Butt Crack Bob"

Joined: Sep 2003
Posts: 12,344
north of coder
around here, help wanted signs are everywhere. however, the downtown area is filled with "antique" stores.
it seems there are several store fronts that appear to play "musical store". i don't know what that indicates, as this has been going on for quite a few years.
being on a fixed income and having health issues [my wife and i], we have pared our debt down to property taxes [can't avoud those] and a few hundred on our credit card. the credit card debt is strictly health related [medicine] and we pay a lot every month to keep that debt manageable.
our main concern is the devaluing of my 401K. as it stands now, that should last us till we go, but if it loses much value, we will have to rethink our strategy.
beer

Re: Noticing & hearing about unusual "economic" slowdowns local [Re: moparx] #2721814
12/05/19 06:33 PM
12/05/19 06:33 PM
Joined: Jan 2011
Posts: 3,495
Central Florida
larrymopar360 Offline
master
larrymopar360  Offline
master

Joined: Jan 2011
Posts: 3,495
Central Florida
Recessions are part of normal cyclical economic activity. So we will have a recession in the future. Nobody is a genius for predicting that.

It's just sad that there are some that are literally hoping for one, while others certainly seem to be pushing any negative they can as if to scare the consumer or potential small business investor. No matter how many facts in the positive that are pointed out, there's sure to be a "yeah, but". Negative, negative, negative. Pound it in.


Facts are stubborn things.
Re: Noticing & hearing about unusual "economic" slowdowns local [Re: 71TA] #2721816
12/05/19 06:41 PM
12/05/19 06:41 PM
Joined: Feb 2003
Posts: 1,422
Florida
G
GMP440 Offline
pro stock
GMP440  Offline
pro stock
G

Joined: Feb 2003
Posts: 1,422
Florida
Seeing that down here in South Florida. But, with restaurants. A few weeks ago had dinner with a friend at a restaurant named Sergios. Good amount of cars in that parking lot.
As I am waiting outside the restaurant for my friend to show up, I look a few hundred feet down at the Chilli's restaurant next door and that parking lot was nearly empty.
Also, two days ago went to Lowes and noticed the Pirate's Republic restaurant next door was closed. It's only been there a year and a half.
Passed by there today, on the way home from work and it's still closed. This restaurant was an Applebees before and it closed. But there are other restaurants close by in the area that are doing good
Just this particular spot, something is a miss.

Last edited by GMP440; 12/05/19 06:46 PM.
Re: Noticing & hearing about unusual "economic" slowdowns local [Re: GMP440] #2721818
12/05/19 06:49 PM
12/05/19 06:49 PM
Joined: Dec 2007
Posts: 15,266
Puttin' on the foil in Charles...
not_a_charger Offline

Mr. Big Shot Moparts Moderator
not_a_charger  Offline

Mr. Big Shot Moparts Moderator

Joined: Dec 2007
Posts: 15,266
Puttin' on the foil in Charles...
I'm very fortunate. The company I work for is growing like crazy, and doing so very profitably. We can't hire fast enough. Getting a nice profit sharing check this year, and I'm guessing that our salary increase budget will be about 3.5% of total payroll. Some will get more, some less, some none, depending upon current pay rate, as well as performance, but that's a healthy amount of $$ to dole out.


Earning every penny of that moderator paycheck.

DBAP
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