Page 1 of 2 1 2 >
Topic Options
#2447039 - 02/05/18 05:01 PM Market down another 1175 points...
Cometstorm Online   content
"Beat It"

Registered: 01/21/03
Posts: 2315
Loc: St. Louis, Missouri area
Getting a bit cheesy out there! eek

A little over 4%, but still...
_________________________
I'm a sneezing fish!

Top
#2447062 - 02/05/18 06:13 PM Re: Market down another 1175 points... [Re: Cometstorm]
1971 Gran Coupe Offline


Registered: 02/10/14
Posts: 1018
Loc: Washington/Las Vegas
Sure hope everyone here has taken the needed steps to protect their funds/retirement. About a year ago I had a long talk with my FA and even back then he said a major correction is eminent. I moved most to stable investments and when I seen the big up ticks, I remembered how much I had made and counted my blessings. Younger investors have time to recoup even with the deep drop today, but ones looking at retiring soon need to be a little more conservative. I would not have thought the slight interest rate hikes would have this much impact, but then, I don't follow it as close as I use to either.

Top
#2447063 - 02/05/18 06:15 PM Re: Market down another 1175 points... [Re: Cometstorm]
srt Offline


Registered: 01/19/03
Posts: 8922
Loc: Fire and Fury
lots of nervousness in all segments

Top
#2447094 - 02/05/18 07:17 PM Re: Market down another 1175 points... [Re: Cometstorm]
DaveRS23 Online   content
master

Registered: 01/20/03
Posts: 4734
Loc: Benton, IL.
Today's drop is less than half the gains of the last year. Not a big deal, not even a bonafide correction. At least, not yet.

https://www.usatoday.com/story/money/201...line/308542002/
_________________________
KOS

Top
#2447179 - 02/05/18 09:09 PM Re: Market down another 1175 points... [Re: Cometstorm]
carcrazyguy Offline
master

Registered: 06/06/04
Posts: 9285
Loc: Texas
If you think it’s not a big deal....tell that to those holding XIV.

Traded between 96-118 during market hours today.
Then in the after hours it was under $16 with rumor of being liquidated tomorrow.

Top
#2447311 - 02/06/18 08:10 AM Re: Market down another 1175 points... [Re: Cometstorm]
360view Offline
master

Registered: 01/18/06
Posts: 4505
Loc: USA
About 40 years a new type of mutual fund began using puts and calls and computer programing to create an investment strategy that would give a positive investment return 95.4% of the time
( mathematically two standard deviations away from “normal” conditions).

Investors would not have to worry about ups and downs,
although their percent return would be slightly less than the very long term average
+8% after inflation gain from USA stocks.

“hedge funds” they were called.

Today nearly none of several hundred Hedge Funds do strictly this any more.

Today the large majority of Hedge Funds just speculate,
hoping for a few lucky years of massive gains
that they can heavily advertise
and will attract “yield chasers”.

But you as an average investor can set up a system
like the original idea +40 years ago
using puts and calls
so that roughly 95% of the time you will have a positive % gain,
but a gain a bit less than +8% inflation adjusted.

You can also ask your financial advisor how to do this in detail.

If your FA cannot ( or will not)
explain how to do it in simple terms you can understand,
that is a sign you have the wrong ( or incompletely educated) advisor.

Top
#2447313 - 02/06/18 08:29 AM Re: Market down another 1175 points... [Re: Cometstorm]
McCandlessboy Offline
super stock

Registered: 12/01/04
Posts: 825
Corrections are good, much better than a crash. Has been on a hell of a run, needs cooling off.

Top
#2447365 - 02/06/18 10:56 AM Re: Market down another 1175 points... [Re: McCandlessboy]
Mastershake340 Offline


Registered: 01/10/05
Posts: 5630
Loc: Crook County, ILL
Originally Posted By McCandlessboy
Corrections are good, much better than a crash. Has been on a hell of a run, needs cooling off.

Exactly. This market has been like Icarus. It can't keep flying higher every week without eventually crashing. I hope this takes some of the froth out of the market!
I've been holding off putting most of my 2017 Roth IRA contributions in my Vanguard account because the market seemed to high. Now my challenge is trying to figure out a safe time to do that before April 16 or 17, whatever tax day is this year (the 15th is over the weekend and I think the following Monday might be some sort of phony federal holiday or something?)

Top
#2447390 - 02/06/18 11:57 AM Re: Market down another 1175 points... [Re: Cometstorm]
360view Offline
master

Registered: 01/18/06
Posts: 4505
Loc: USA
Heard of the term “Black Swans”
after the year 2007 book by investor Nassim Taleb?

Could you patiently lose a small amount of money for 10 to 25 years straight in order to score a large fortune in just a few days?

Sample quote

Universa's view that a crash is coming is not widely held, making crash protection cheap, he said. Universa buys this protection in the form of options that generate huge returns when the stock market falls by more than 20%. Universa's adviser, economist and former derivative trader Nassim Taleb calls it 'black swan' hedging.
End quote

Year 2013 article
http://money.cnn.com/2013/05/24/investing/hedge-funds-crash/index.html

Top
#2447428 - 02/06/18 12:59 PM Re: Market down another 1175 points... [Re: Cometstorm]
360view Offline
master

Registered: 01/18/06
Posts: 4505
Loc: USA
Were both Bitcoin and Stocks in a bubble?

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/heres-some-good-news-about-the-stock-markets-plunge-2018-02-05

Sample quote
The researchers defined a bubble as a sharp price runup over a two-year period followed by at least a 40% drop over the subsequent two years. When the price runup is 100% or more, they found the probability of a crash rises to 50%. When the price runup is at least 150%, that probability becomes 80%. As price runups become even bigger, a crash becomes “nearly certain.”

As an example, I applied their research to bitcoin BTCUSD in late November 2017, writing that — given the crypotcurrency’s 2000+% gain over the prior two years — it was “nearly certain” that bitcoin would crash. Bitcoin is now down 65% from its December 2017 high.

The stock market’s recent gain hardly shows up as a blip on a bitcoin bubble chart. At its Jan. 29 all-time high, for example, the S&P 500 SPX, +0.19% had risen 48% over the trailing two years. That hardly translates into any significantly increased probability of a crash, according to the researchers.

The bottom line: Even if the bull market has come to an end and a bear market has begun, the data do not justify a claim that the market was in a bubble that has now burst. The only real bubble, quite frankly, may have been in all those assertions that the bubble was real.
End quote

Top
#2447480 - 02/06/18 02:34 PM Re: Market down another 1175 points... [Re: carcrazyguy]
Supercuda Offline
I Live Here

Registered: 09/04/07
Posts: 13835
Loc: up yours
Originally Posted By carcrazyguy
If you think it’s not a big deal....tell that to those holding XIV.

Traded between 96-118 during market hours today.
Then in the after hours it was under $16 with rumor of being liquidated tomorrow.


One ETN, BFD.

If you put you life's savings into one sector/stock/ETN/ETF (hello Enron) you are a fool.
_________________________
They say there are no such thing as a stupid question.
They say there is always the exception that proves the rule.
Don't be the exception.

Top
#2447491 - 02/06/18 02:56 PM Re: Market down another 1175 points... [Re: Mastershake340]
SomeCarGuy Online   content
master

Registered: 02/02/03
Posts: 8489
Loc: Someplace you aren't
Originally Posted By Mastershake340
Originally Posted By McCandlessboy
Corrections are good, much better than a crash. Has been on a hell of a run, needs cooling off.

Exactly. This market has been like Icarus. It can't keep flying higher every week without eventually crashing. I hope this takes some of the froth out of the market!
I've been holding off putting most of my 2017 Roth IRA contributions in my Vanguard account because the market seemed to high. Now my challenge is trying to figure out a safe time to do that before April 16 or 17, whatever tax day is this year (the 15th is over the weekend and I think the following Monday might be some sort of phony federal holiday or something?)


Can’t you just park it in the cash account for whenever you are ready to do a buy? I manage a Vanguard account and you’ve got some options for drawing a bit off the money without it being truly invested.
_________________________
Forever in debt to your priceless advice...

Top
#2447550 - 02/06/18 04:10 PM Re: Market down another 1175 points... [Re: Cometstorm]
carcrazyguy Offline
master

Registered: 06/06/04
Posts: 9285
Loc: Texas
Yes you can sit in cash within most accounts. Even when the financial advisor kicks and screams about it. That is what we did quite a while back. In my “fun money” account that I use to learn about the market, I bought some MO a while back. I added to that position this morning. Probably holding a little to much now but I figure the dividends and growth over the next 5-7 years will outweigh the risk.

As for the XIV....there is NO WAY I (personally) would invest in that. Basically the disclaimer for the fund said everything. “This is an unsecured debt securities with no principal protection”. Yeah, I want nothing to do with that.

Top
#2447566 - 02/06/18 04:32 PM Re: Market down another 1175 points... [Re: carcrazyguy]
Mastershake340 Offline


Registered: 01/10/05
Posts: 5630
Loc: Crook County, ILL
Vanguard where I have my rollover and Roth IRAs didn't seem to have a money market, cash or stable value type fund when I have looked among their many fund options.
I did set up the most conservative non equity type fund that I found of their funds in my Roth portfolio, which was a short term bond fund. I've put some money in that of the "baby steps" I've made toward investing my $6500 2017 Roth investment so far.
Vanguard has rules to prevent their investors from doing much trading, which complicate matters some. Something like you move money out of one of your funds and then that fund is then frozen for 60 days and you can't buy or sell any more shares of it during that period. So that complicates my decision making when it comes to shuffling my Vanguard fund allocations around.
In my work 401K, there is a stable value fund. My default investment fund is a 2025 target date fund, and I go in every month or two and move some of that to other funds in my 401K. But even with that, they send me nasty grams saying they discourage frequent moves and reserve the right to freeze employees funds from reallocating if employees trade too much. I don't see how moving a couple grand around every month or two constitutes frequent trading, so that's irritating! mad

Top
#2447624 - 02/06/18 06:13 PM Re: Market down another 1175 points... [Re: Cometstorm]
360view Offline
master

Registered: 01/18/06
Posts: 4505
Loc: USA
If a correction in the specialized investment markets
causes pain but is good in the long run,
are larger corrections in nearly ALL markets
painful but valuable in the long run?

What we now almost always call “recessions”
were called corrections prior to 1929.

Economic growth percentage was higher in the 1983 to 1990s
than it has been 2000-2017.

Was USA economic growth slower because we did not have frequent enough “corrections” ?

https://www.amazon.com/Forgotten-Depress...at+cured+itself

Top
#2447630 - 02/06/18 06:18 PM Re: Market down another 1175 points... [Re: Cometstorm]
carcrazyguy Offline
master

Registered: 06/06/04
Posts: 9285
Loc: Texas
As one advisor told us. If your current advisor can’t help you go to a cash position. It is most likely because he/she does not make any commissions on those type of accounts. He said some firms pay bonuses (or even base pay off) of the total money that they brought in to the fund or group and currently being managed. They don’t include cash accounts/positions when that is being figured.

Top
#2447718 - 02/06/18 07:56 PM Re: Market down another 1175 points... [Re: Cometstorm]
ruderunner Offline


Registered: 12/18/14
Posts: 1981
Loc: ohio
I lost 40 large due to an advisor that would argue about how I shouldn't pull out of certain positions. He had his favorites and couldn't comprehend that others didn't agree.

Top
#2447755 - 02/06/18 08:47 PM Re: Market down another 1175 points... [Re: ruderunner]
Mastershake340 Offline


Registered: 01/10/05
Posts: 5630
Loc: Crook County, ILL
I never had a financial advisor per se, but I did have a full service stock broker who looking back rarely gave me any good advice but did give me a fair share of bad. He was my parents broker and in the early 80s when I was in college and started getting interested in investing. I wanted to buy Chrysler and he said "I don't think they are out of the woods yet". I insisted on buying, and a couple years later I sold it after it more than tripled.
He talked me into a few small cap stocks over the years he thought were going to hit big, but instead would end up losing 80%.
in the meantime, I'd watch the market and from time to time would see a stock that appealed, so I'd call him and place an order. I'd hang on to the good ones and eventually dump the dogs. I didn't do some deep analysis or anything, usually I'd just see something that got my attention and decide to buy. My best buy so far was MSFT in '92. I bought it because it was always on the NASDAQ most active list and it always seemed to be going up! So I jumped in myself, and fortunately never felt any reason to sell it, so I still own it.
Advisors, full service brokers etc almost always put their own interests before their client's. It's very frustrating. When I retire I'd really feel comfortable having more steady income streams than just social security and a tiny pension I'm owed. I'd like to invest some money in an annuity, but damn, talk about a business full of snake oil salesmen trying to get rich off gullible retirees! They get big commissions and awards like cruises for selling annuities, so I don't trust that I'd ever be able to buy something fair and honestly sold. It's tough though, because going from a saver and investor for decades, to spending down is not as easy as you'd think. An annuity would be a good way to make that happen, but greed on the part of those in that industry may have ruined that product now as a reasonable way to convert assets to a rest of your life income stream.

Top
#2447851 - 02/06/18 11:34 PM Re: Market down another 1175 points... [Re: Cometstorm]
crackedback Offline


Registered: 02/15/15
Posts: 1144
Loc: CA
Annuities are horrible...

Top
#2447892 - 02/07/18 02:28 AM Re: Market down another 1175 points... [Re: Mastershake340]
SomeCarGuy Online   content
master

Registered: 02/02/03
Posts: 8489
Loc: Someplace you aren't
Originally Posted By Mastershake340
Vanguard where I have my rollover and Roth IRAs didn't seem to have a money market, cash or stable value type fund when I have looked among their many fund options.
I did set up the most conservative non equity type fund that I found of their funds in my Roth portfolio, which was a short term bond fund. I've put some money in that of the "baby steps" I've made toward investing my $6500 2017 Roth investment so far.
Vanguard has rules to prevent their investors from doing much trading, which complicate matters some. Something like you move money out of one of your funds and then that fund is then frozen for 60 days and you can't buy or sell any more shares of it during that period. So that complicates my decision making when it comes to shuffling my Vanguard fund allocations around.
In my work 401K, there is a stable value fund. My default investment fund is a 2025 target date fund, and I go in every month or two and move some of that to other funds in my 401K. But even with that, they send me nasty grams saying they discourage frequent moves and reserve the right to freeze employees funds from reallocating if employees trade too much. I don't see how moving a couple grand around every month or two constitutes frequent trading, so that's irritating! mad



Something is wrong here. An IRA should be wide open to do all sorts of things. 401ks aren’t.

You need to move into the etf equivalents of the funds you like. No commission on those trades. Next time I get a chance I’ll look into what I park the cash in. Last year they switched what found you use to trade out of. Called settlement fund now. I had parked money in something that paid a decent interest of like .9% while it sat. They won’t let you use that to do buys with now. New one pays much less. Only matters though if you want to get paid a decent amount while you wait to buy.
_________________________
Forever in debt to your priceless advice...

Top
Page 1 of 2 1 2 >

Advertisement
Forum Stats
25,534 Registered Members
32 Forums
194,004 Topics
2,265,998 Posts

Most users ever online: 1,424 @ 06/20/18 07:18 PM
Moparts Newest Topics
Engine swap question. 4.7 to a 5.2
by Ram man9903
23 minutes 47 seconds ago
I have lost a tenth and a half.
by Jamie340
25 minutes 11 seconds ago
wiw 71 demon scooped hood,grille and bumper
by TB3CUDA
45 minutes 51 seconds ago
Anybody reconize this wheel/rim?
by maximus
Today at 06:46 PM