Car values today.....versus later.

In light of recent world eventa.

I wonder what car values going to go.????

Cars?
Trucks?
Daily drivers?
New?
Used?
Collector?

I don't predict much change until inflation really starts ramping up and stocks tank (which won't be long)... give it 3-4 months

Dow was up 834 points today.

So many factors come into play.
Factors leading to declines- interest rates will rise. Good possibility of recession. High gas prices. Rising prices price many out of the market.
Factors leading to increases- supply chain issues are not better, maybe even worse. Collectibles including special interest cars are good investments in high inflation times.
Probably forgetting some factors?
But there will be uneven results for different categories. Used low mpg trucks and SUVs might go down while more economical cars might be in high demand and continue going up. Vintage cars might continue up. New cars and trucks stay high and keep increasing due to higher commodity prices.

If I really had any clue as to what cars would be worth in the future, I wouldn't have trashed the Mopars that I did 45 years ago.

My primary thinking is collector cars 1st and foremost.
I know a few people wanting to buy but the current market has them priced out of it completely.

I actually think there's going to be a paradigm shift soon... numbers matching resto cars gonna deflate while hotrods/modded cars will stay same.

Well, desire is not dissipating, it's increasing.
There's a limited supply of original cars, as well as shells to build restomods.
When the economic sector's in trouble, people move to hard assets.
When the economy's strong, people indulge their desires.
Right or wrong, old and/or collectible cars, trucks & motorcycles values are hyped to the general public via TV auctions & other mass media.
I've seen & experienced several "market adjustments" since the 1980s, but long-term, values/prices are much higher than, say, 1988.
Another factor is the Dollar is weaker, so that should also be considered, but it appears the other factors are more significant.

Once gas prices pass $4.50 gal on average for 87 octane in the US, and oil passes $120/barrel, I predict a fire sale on a lot of the fancy gas guzzling trucks people were eager to pay $80,000 and up for. It's happened in the past and will happen again at some point. Once the factories begin ramping up the supply of new vehicles, new and used vehicle prices will return to more customary levels, but probably not back to pre-pandemic levels. I'm waiting to buy till at least mid-summer to see if some of the insanity subsides. If not, I can wait. Still have 4 vehicles for daily drivers in perfect mechanical condition.

The pundits here on Moparts have been forecasting the impending collapse of the muscle car market for as long as I can remember. The subject has come up repeatedly over the last 10-15 years.
Some questions about today’s rising market are who are these buyers, and where are they getting the money?
A lot of the fuel for the hot market in the early 2000s seemed to come from home equity loans. At least for the mid to mid high priced cars. The highest end cars get bought by collectors who seem to always have bottomless pockets. The market for the mid to mid high cars sank with the 2008 real estate crash and credit market collapse.
The real estate market has been red hot, are people using home equity loans to buy cars again? Interest rates are low, but will be getting raised by the fed. Are people borrowing and if so will rising rates cool their car buying ambitions? Or are they using cash?
What about psychological factors. I’m thinking about my own experience with this. Cash was great for ages. Now it seems to be losing value by the day. I had been trying to sell my ‘71 Challenger for a long time. I pulled it off the market last year. I now don’t have anything I feel good about to do with the cash if I sold it. So stick it in the bank and watch it lose real value? Funny thing, I got 2 guys who’d each waffled around on the car last year now on me to sell it. I’m pretty much telling them I’ll only sell it if I can find something else to buy.
Until recently cash seemed valuable, now it doesn’t. Maybe it’s just me?

My take on new and used car prices are they'll rise high ($$$$) then drop because the market demands it. My experience with the inflationary cycles is that prices get so $$$ that people stop buying durable goods. For many of us "I'll fix it before I buy new" became our mantra (I still operate like that). IMHO, that is what breaks inflation's back. You members that grew up in 70s and 80s remember oil prices going insane high for a barrel and double inflation for years. I was looking to buy a used Challenger in the fall, but world economy went crazy, and I saw prices go up. Slow increase at first, but then the prices for used Challengers went stupid high. I quit shopping. I'll hold off till late spring, summer and start again. My wife is in the car transport industry, and she is starting to see small market dealers complaining they can't take any more cars because they can't move what they got. Here in Pasadena, where there is a used car lot every 100', I'm seeing cars sit, mostly large SUVs and trucks.

No way to know for sure.

That said, VIN swapped cars, cars with fake fender tags and / or any other fake documentation are at the bottom of the barrel.

Any value plummets to zero in some cases, all too many cases.

If the trends of regulations coming from government continues, I see the possibility of push back from buyers on new vehicles. The push for EVs, added sobriety devices, unrealistic fuel efficiency standards etc. will force manufacturers to produce cars no one wants (or can afford).to buy. We could reach a point where more and more people will just keep the cars they have and will do whatever it takes to keep them on the road. That would represent a major hit to the remaining auto manufacturers.

I wouldn't be surprised if even some of the pieces of junk from the 80's start to increase in value. All that would be good for the parts manufacturers and the repair and restoration business.

The internet tycoons and other connected people would continue to buy the super exotics, but that will be a limited market.

I've wondered if a lot of the money being thrown around is from individuals that profited from the covid thing one way or the other. the recent auctions reminded me of the dot.com boom and makes me wonder if a similar Bust may be in the future. Myself I don't think it can continue just as Wall St didn't in 1929, the RE crash in 2008 ? and several others over the years. History repeats itself comes to mind along with, what goes up must come down. I do think there will be a "settling" in the not to distant future

Still down in the year....almost 2000.

Has anyone shown a correlation between the Dow and car prices? I’m not aware of any, but if there’s any evidence let me know.
It snowed here yesterday into this morning and the Dow was up both days. Snow in Chicago makes stocks go up! No more snow forecast for the next week.
Short the market!

If we are talking new vehicles, there are too many things in play to really know what is going to happen; inflation, gas prices, more major world events, chip shortages, and the manufacturers are adjusting to the new normal and the way they do business has changed forever. But higher new vehicle prices and shortages cannot change until the chip situation is completely behind us. And that is not likely to happen until at least later this year. And that is what has driven the price of used vehicles up.

my 1999 caravan [my "bus"] and my wife's 1994 Chrysler concorde will last us until we croak.
i have a bunch of "stuff" stashed for each, so keeping them running will be no problem.
what i don't understand, and i haven't for a very LONG time, how do people in my area [with depressed jobs and wages] afford new, expensive vehicles, especially 4x4 pickups and suv's ???????
and before anyone says it, my officers [i have been a police commissioner since 1985 or so] have done a FANTASTIC job busting dope dealers !

Just take a loan, I think you can get terms on car loans up to 10 years now. Pretty soon they’ll have to start calling car loans mortgages!
Does that make financial sense? No, but a lot of people are pretty reckless managing their money. If things go bad they can just declare bankruptcy!

I have 2 sons in their late teens and early 20's. We actually have talked about this a little. Let me tell you, I run the Cyclone down to the 7/11 and there is a crowd around it when I come out. This is a car that literally has original paint and rust on it still. A restomod running FI. When I start the car, cameras come out along with the thumbs up. So why do I say thing? Well, in the US and the world, the leaders seem to be under the false impression that we operate on a command economy. We are going electric they say(perhaps we eventually will). But, the rumble of a V8 gets lots of attention. It gets attention by anyone from 20-70 years old. People know what it is by the sound and some actually remember the cars. The more they push us away from these instead of allowing us to migrate ourselves, the higher the value will go. My 21 year rides in the car and just smiles. It isn't just the sound but the seating, the door height, no B pillar, etc. He just grins and says, man, this car was just made right. Try hanging your arm out a modern Mustang(I have one). Yeah,it can be done but well, it aint comfy after a while.

VERY well said. I agree on all points.

Wife and I have the Satellite out quite a bit and one nite we decided to stop at Canes and get a bite for dinner to take home.
So we were in the drive thru line .
And a guy came out out of the bldg, he stopped dead in his tracks and just starred the car down. After maybe a minute or 2 he noticed the Hemi emblems on the fender. He then asked it that was real. When I told him yes . He smiled from ear to ear and said thanks. Glad to see it actually getting driven . If I had to guess he was maybe late 40s to early 50s


My daughters drive it from time to time. And you should see the faces and jaws drop when we pull in at a local show or cruise in . She is 21 , my oldest is 24. And they BOTH love it and want to drive all the damn time.


My primary reason for the post is I have a couple friends wanting to buy and they feel like they are steadily being priced out of the market

One of them originally had set a budget of 40k, after a few months raised that to 50. now he is afraid he may have to go to 60k and isnt sure he is comfortable spending that . Ive told him to keep the current 68 Roadrunner he has and do the aftermarket ac thing and keep it.
But deep down he wants a 1968 or 69 Coronet Rt but will consider a similar 68 to 70 Superbee .
he is open to a 1968 to 1970 B body be it a Road Runner, GTX as well if it pops his buttons


2nd guy is looking more for a 66-67 Hemi 4spd car

Both guys have cash to spend and not financing anything

It'll be interesting to see what happens price wise. When will these pandemic inflated prices come back down? With this big push for EVs will the price of used gas vehicles stay high for a while when you can't get new ones as easily and then drop when more people are after EVs? Or will they stay high unless gas prices sky rocket? Will they drop because everyone but us car crazed people want electric cars?

Attempting to predict future values of vehicles is nearly impossible. I've tried for years. Sometimes I was right, sometimes wrong. The best advice I've heard is to buy what you like and enjoy it.



I could be proven wrong, but it appears that there are growing numbers of people who do NOT want, or will not buy, new cars & trucks. (Most of the folks that have expressed this idea to me are car buffs.) I suspect there are several reasons for this:


1. Purchase price for new vehicles. Some folks are priced out of the market. I live in a low income area. Many people are struggling to afford transportation. Other people, particularly retired folks, have the money to buy a new vehicle but are unwilling to pay the high prices!!

2. Growing numbers of people do NOT fit in new vehicles! People are growing larger while vehicles are shrinking. Large and / or tall people can not fit in many of the cramped cars being built today! I've sat in quite a few newer vehicles and frequently my head hits the roof!! I'm not exceptionally tall, but many of these newer cars are designed for people 5' 10" or shorter!

3. Technology in new cars will become obsolete at some point. Will service and parts still be available? This can be a real issue for folks who keep their vehicles for decades.

4. Some folks are skeptical of electrical vehicles. For instance, if the vehicle's battery is damaged in an accident, the car will catch on fire. How long will the battery last? What will the replacement battery cost? Where to charger it? Etc.

5. Concerns regarding the inability to maintain or repair the vehicle themselves. The other concern is the cost of paying a commercial garage to repair the vehicle. I have a great mechanic / commercial garage that has been taking care of my vehicles for over 20 years. Over that time, his labor rate has doubled! Every other garage in the area is charging similar rates, so it's not just him!

6. It may just be that I'm growing old, but most of the new vehicles are just plain UGLY!!! I wouldn't want to drive many of them!


Around here, the prices people are asking for high mileage, 15 year old vehicles is just unbelievable! This is a rural area, so many people require transportation. Being able to afford it is becoming more difficult though. Like someone previously mentioned, vehicles are being repaired that would NOT have been repaired a couple of years ago. I'm driving a 20 year old truck. It's been in the family for 18 years. I had planned to junk it this year due to rust. I looked up the value and discovered it has gone up in value 50% in the last 2 years!!! Guess I'm going to fix it now! (assuming the parts are available!)

That’s already happening & on cars that are not not old.

https://www.thedrive.com/tech/44353...-connected-features-for-millions-of-cars

New cars?

Chip shortage going to last until at least 2024. People buying new cars are stupid if they have to take out 72+ month loans to get one.


Old cars?

Dreamers will be asking big bux for rust buckets for awhile. Dreamers buying these rust buckets will soon learn that $45k rust bucket 68 Charger is going to take $90k to restore.


Restoration costs are going through the roof as there is a typical two-year waiting list to get a paint job.

Restored, well-done cars are big bux because those w/money don't want to wait for their car being in paint jail for 2-3 years.

Boomers and old Gen-Xers are doing pretty dang good, so there's no end in sight for nice, older cars selling to these demographics for the next 10-15 years.

I have heard it said that the guys who bought these cars in the late ‘60s and early ‘70s are going to age out or pass on and then there will be less interest in the cars from the era and therefore the prices will go down. I disagree with this idea for a couple of reasons. #1) I was too young to buy one of these cars new. I got my DL in 1982 and I was able to buy a few used cars which sparked my interest in the muscle cars. I am now 56. I believe there are a lot of others who are in the same boat as me. #2) Due to different ways of exposure (family, TV and movies) I believe there are many people younger than me interested in these cars. So it is no surprise to me that prices are going up. The demand is there. What does surprise me is how fast the prices are going up. Why they are going up so fast I don’t know. Maybe as the person above said people with big pockets don’t want to wait 2 years for a restoration to be completed? With costs going up for everything maybe we will see more do it yourself restorations. All opinion.

In some states the ( FEDS) are slowly trying to get rid of the classics! You can read some of the posts from guys that are dealing with that. With the ( FEDS) now talking about total ban on gas engines by 2030 it is only a matter of time. Like the old statement ( its now a matter of if, it is a matter of when. If you can,t drive them you will still be able to look at them) Just ask chargervert a member here who is already dealing with this!

My understanding is, it is 2035 and a proposed ban on SELLING NEW vehicle's with ICE's. that's going to leave a pot full of 2034's and earlier vehicles still on the road.

IF they don't legislate them off the road as gross polluters. Look what California did with big trucks.

The BIG political push of EV's, and the "politically imposed" dates are so unrealistic ! The electrical infrastructure can't handle all the charging for the "proposed EV's" . . . how would you like to own an EV, park at home, but be told you have to spend big $$$ to change your electrical panel, service, etc, JUST to be able to put a charger in place ! OR, as an electrical rate paying consumer, be told you (and EVERYONE else connected to the grid), have to pay $$$$ to upgrade the grid, to allow everyone to use EV. It's such political crap . . . how many MILLIONS of ICE vehicles are on the road right now - personally I keep my cars for LONG LONG time (like 15-20years??) . . . even by 2035, I will be long retired, still driving, but not wanting to spend big $$$ on some new EV . . . might cost me way more to fill up the car with gas, but then I probably won't be driving to far . . .

I think the ICE vehicles are actually going to go up in value as many realize that they can't afford and EV . . . or don't have place to charge them, etc . . .

When India & China get serious about their emissions, then we here in Nth America should be too . . . any emissions savings we do here, is MORE than offset by what they pump out in India & China. . . .

We could assist the world by stopping all the HOT AIR coming out of the politicians and greenie weenies . . . they have to tell the WHOLE story, not just what they want you to hear . . .

Sorry, rant off . . .

Cheers,

Mark

Discussion on the push towards EV will quickly get moved to current events if we get going in it.
But I don’t think it’s practical for most people and don’t know when or if it ever will be.
Just last week an engineer coworker was showing us his new Buick SUV. I noticed a new Ford Mustang Mach EV parked near his car. I said you should have got one of those. He said he looked at them, but couldn’t afford $30,000 for an electrician to upgrade his houses service and install a charger.
I’ve heard mixed stories on what installation of a charger involves. Unless I start getting estimates to do it at my house I’ll take everything I hear with a grain of salt. But at a minimum you’d need 220 as 120 chargers take so long to charge a car. Many older houses still have 60 amp, and 100 is fairly common, 60 would certainly require and upgrade in service to allow installation of a 220 car charger. 100 might too, maybe 200 amp service minimum required? That’s getting to be a big project regardless of if his $30K claim was an exaggeration or not.
And that just helps people who own homes, what about people who live in apartments, condos or mobile home parks.
Public charging stations seem like an inconvenience even if the infrastructure was there and charging stations were as common as gas stations. Theres a Tesla Super charger station in the parking lot of a store I frequent and I don’t envy those Tesla owners sitting there charging for 30 minutes or whatever they take.
Back to ICE vintage car values, I watched some of Mecum Houston over the weekend and prices still seem to be high. Custom or resto mod types seem hot now. I wonder if that will continue? Trouble shooting and maintaining a highly modified car trying to figure out what replacement parts are correct seems like a nightmare to me and I wonder if enthusiasts scooping up those cars have thought things through, as they probably will be someday when they or their mechanic is trying to sort out problems with their LS3, Coyote or hemi conversation or even figure what pads and rotors are correct for the 4 wheel disc conversion somebody did years ago on the car they bought.
I’ll stick with stock restos myself just to minimize headaches, but that’s just me…

$30k for a panel.service upgrade and a charger installation? Are they using gold wiring? It think somebody heard the number incorrectly. $3k sounds more like it. 2 years ago, I had my panel upgraded from 125 amp service to 200 and it cost $3900 and I live in Sillycon Valley, CA where everything is overpriced. Something ain't right with that $30k number. Maybe that included solar panels?

It didn’t sound right to me either.
I had my 60 amp upgraded to 100 amp over 10 years ago by a licensed electrician who did side jobs and I think it was a bit under $1000.
Long time ago, and a “deal”, but still I can’t imagine today and being at a company I found listed onlines mercy it would cost me much over twice what I paid then?
Of course his estimate included 220 service maybe to his garage and the cost and installation of the Charger unit but still can’t see it being even $5000 total.
Or maybe he called ABC plumbing and electric, not sure if they are national, but they are a company advertising a lot locally that has a quite a reputation for up selling and overcharging, they might well estimate $30,000 for a job that a more reputable outfit would do for $5000.

The prices you paid for stuff 2 years ago doesn't even fit into the ball park of what the same thing would cost today. Todays prices are easily 3-4x what they were 2 years ago.
Then yo add in the cost of the charging station, which by itself could be $5,000 or more, maybe a lot more. "Green energy stuff" isn't cheap! Then you need the city permits, and it is possible the electric service to the property line is not a high enough capacity to cover the load required for the charging station.

I have a buddy that wanted to upgrade his electric power at his house to a 200 amp service 3 or 4 years ago. The power company told him the most he could upgrade to was 100 amp because he was at the "end of the service line". The nearest point "they" could pull a 200 amp service from was 3 blocks away from where he lived. The cost to get that 200 amp service to his property line was $20,000! They would have had to run new wire and, add a transformer, Then they would have to upgrade the wires from his property line to his house, and a new meter base, that was over and above the 20 grand. If you really want to see overcharge, deal with a public electric company!