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#2447234 - 02/05/18 10:20 PM Re: Interesting analysis of Tesla......... [Re: DaveRS23]
AndyF Offline
Too Many Posts

Registered: 01/20/03
Posts: 24355
Loc: Oregon
I drive an electric car on a daily basis (Leaf). It is a very handy way to buzz around town. I run errands in it during the day and then plug it into the wall at night and it is ready to go again in the morning. It is a super cheap and very clever little car.

I do not know the "big picture" economics of electric cars. I don't know if they make economic sense or if they actually reduce pollution. There is a lot of "fake news" on electric cars and I really don't know who to trust on the subject.

At a personal economic level the Leaf is a win for me. It was very cheap to buy, it is very cheap to operate and maintenance is almost zero. No oil changes, brakes last a long time, no visits to the gas station, no exhaust system to rust out, simple drivetrain, simple cooling system, etc.

I figure the big picture stuff will sort out over time. Perhaps the whole industry is a scam, I really don't know. But for now I'm enjoying some very inexpensive transportation.

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#2447236 - 02/05/18 10:31 PM Re: Interesting analysis of Tesla......... [Re: DaveRS23]
a12rag Offline
top fuel

Registered: 04/23/07
Posts: 2101
Loc: Calgary, Alberta Canada
I have a company car that I log my miles on every day . . . I can say that most of my trips are around 30-50miles a day, well within the range of most electric cars . . . BUT, I also do long trips of up to 1000miles . . . so do I rent a gas powered vehicle for those trips ???

AndyF makes good point - there are inexpensive used electric cars out there for intended usage of low mileage trips. Sure the recharging is cheap, but as mentioned, the electricity has to be generated somehow. . . also, how does the government get tax money from electricity for the infrastructure, the way they do from gas and diesel ???

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#2447241 - 02/05/18 10:50 PM Re: Interesting analysis of Tesla......... [Re: DaveRS23]
hooziewhatsit Offline
master

Registered: 10/05/07
Posts: 2811
Loc: State of Jefferson
Click to open this in a larger window.
https://www.ucsusa.org/sites/default/files/images/2015/11/vehicles-m-emissions-map-with-notes.jpg

Using realistic power mixes depending on the region of the country they're in, EVs emit are quite a bit cleaner than ICEs when you compare the tailpipe of the ICE and the long-tailpipe of the EV. In the dirtiest grid, an EV has the same emissions as an ICE that gets 35mpg. In the Northwest US, an ICE would need to get 94mpg to match the emissions from the average EV.

Plus, it moves that pollution out of populated cities to fixed power plants where it's easier to implement and maintain pollution controls. And, as the grid gets cleaner (because it's cheaper), the EVs also get cleaner.

a12, most every state (in the US, I imagine CA is similar) has a special registration tax for EVs to cover the lost revenues from gas taxes. So don't think they're getting away with not paying anything. (Yes, it's a flat rate, so some win, and some lose. Cue cries of "it's not fair" lol).

Your comment about 1000 mile road trips is a legitimate problem right now. In a few more years as EVs gain more range and faster charging, it will get a lot better than it is currently. Then again, the current cannonball record for an EV is around 50 hours (to drive 3000 miles from LA to NY).

The first cell phone had 30 minutes of talk time, and needed 10 hours to recharge. Not usable for most people, but it improved to what we have today. EVs will be the same.

Edit: I found the updated chart: https://cdn.blog.ucsusa.org/wp-content/uploads/2014-map_blog_5.19-1024x749.jpg


Edited by hooziewhatsit (02/06/18 12:50 AM)
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#2447246 - 02/05/18 11:06 PM Re: Interesting analysis of Tesla......... [Re: a12rag]
Greenwood Offline
member

Registered: 09/27/17
Posts: 44
Loc: Red Deer, Alberta
Charging will always remain an issue. Take busy gas station that fuels 2000 cars per day, at 5 minutes per fill. To handle the same number of customers recharging electrics would require 4-6 times the number of "pumps" that a gas station requires. You cannot assume that everyone can charge at home 100% of the time. Conversely, if you ramp up the charging flow to equal the time frame of pumping gas, you will require specialized and expensive charging equipment. At some point, the use of the charging stations will require substantially higher fees.
Now, look at trucks. Take a current 80-100,000 lb rolling combo. First off, you have to reduce your payload by 20-25% to account for the battery. That means you need 20% more trucks, drivers, insurance, tires, and so forth to move the same amount of ton/miles of freight per month.
Now, let's assume you have a freight operation that allows your trucks to be in your yard every night. (Think LA-Frisco, or LA-SLC). Even if you have a 12 hour charging cycle, each truck requires the equivalent power draw of several dozen households. Let's call it 100 average houses, just to be safe. If you have 30 trucks to charge, you're drawing the equivalent power of a town of 7500, every night. How much does that substation, plus the specialized charging equipment, cost. Factoring in the additional trucks required, how long does it take to amortize your fuel savings?
Charging remains the big hurdle. For a lot of people, electrics make lots of sense, especially in two-car households. But I'll stick to my hypothesis that they will remain a notch above a niche product for quite some time.

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#2447278 - 02/06/18 01:50 AM Re: Interesting analysis of Tesla......... [Re: DaveRS23]
hooziewhatsit Offline
master

Registered: 10/05/07
Posts: 2811
Loc: State of Jefferson
The average passenger car EV uses ~350watt-hours/mile. Assuming 50 miles a day, charged every night, that's 17kwh/night (or $2.04 @ 12c/kwh).

Looking at California right now, they have a 8GW spread between night time low and daytime high. With another 10GW of available capacity over the daytime high.

(kind of neat charts here: http://www.caiso.com/outlook/SystemStatus.html)

Someone please check my math, but 8GW of capacity divided by 17kw is 470 thousand cars.

This assumes that each of those 470k cars plugs in at 3am and charges at 17kw for one hour. So the load on the grid spikes to the daytime high for one hour, then goes back down to the normal night time load.

Of course, that isn't realistic.

Let's assume that 17kw is drawn over 5 hours, for an average of 3.4kw/hour. Now the grid can support 2.3 million EVs overnight (8GW/3.4kw). Still leaving the extra 10GW of reserve capacity over the daytime peak.

The Tesla semi is expected to have no bigger than a 1MWh battery (but probably a bit lower). Assuming a 5 hour charge time, that's 200kw over 5 hours. Or, 40,000 trucks that each drove the full 500 miles the previous day.

Or, they can charge during the day and soak up cheap solar power.

Thanks for making me crunch the numbers. I have no doubt that the current grid, tonight, can handle as many cars as we can throw at it, especially if we incentivize it with Time Of Use charging.
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#2447295 - 02/06/18 06:35 AM Re: Interesting analysis of Tesla......... [Re: hooziewhatsit]
Spaceman Spiff Offline
master

Registered: 11/28/10
Posts: 3242
Loc: jersey
Originally Posted By hooziewhatsit
The average passenger car EV uses ~350watt-hours/mile. Assuming 50 miles a day, charged every night, that's 17kwh/night (or $2.04 @ 12c/kwh).

Looking at California right now, they have a 8GW spread between night time low and daytime high. With another 10GW of available capacity over the daytime high.

(kind of neat charts here: http://www.caiso.com/outlook/SystemStatus.html)

Someone please check my math, but 8GW of capacity divided by 17kw is 470 thousand cars.

This assumes that each of those 470k cars plugs in at 3am and charges at 17kw for one hour. So the load on the grid spikes to the daytime high for one hour, then goes back down to the normal night time load.

Of course, that isn't realistic.

Let's assume that 17kw is drawn over 5 hours, for an average of 3.4kw/hour. Now the grid can support 2.3 million EVs overnight (8GW/3.4kw). Still leaving the extra 10GW of reserve capacity over the daytime peak.

The Tesla semi is expected to have no bigger than a 1MWh battery (but probably a bit lower). Assuming a 5 hour charge time, that's 200kw over 5 hours. Or, 40,000 trucks that each drove the full 500 miles the previous day.

Or, they can charge during the day and soak up cheap solar power.

Thanks for making me crunch the numbers. I have no doubt that the current grid, tonight, can handle as many cars as we can throw at it, especially if we incentivize it with Time Of Use charging.


Where do the people living in apartments, condos, or townhouses plug in their cars?
Not everyone has a driveway, and access to a plug...
But I guess the government will give “ incentives” for a company to install charging stations in every parking lot, and all along the curbside. How beautiful that will make the scenery. Get rid of all the trees lining the streets, for charging stations.
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#2447392 - 02/06/18 12:00 PM Re: Interesting analysis of Tesla......... [Re: DaveRS23]
AndyF Offline
Too Many Posts

Registered: 01/20/03
Posts: 24355
Loc: Oregon
I wouldn't buy a new EV but this Leaf was sitting on the used car lot for $8000 and it only had 20,000 miles on it so I grabbed it. It is a heck of a car for 8 grand. There aren't very many new cars that you can find for 8 grand with only 20K miles on them but the electric cars seem to depreciate like a rock.

I figured it was a super good buy and so far I've been right. I'm not into the politics of EV vs. ICE, in fact I spend most of my time working on big block stroker engines. I guess my point is that if people put aside all of the politics and just focus on what might be good for them, you might be surprised.

If you have a need for a second (or third) car in your house then a used EV might be a very good deal. It is a great car for a teen driver or a stay at home mom who runs a bunch of errands around town. Also a good car for retired folks to carry behind a motor home or something like that.

Cheap to buy, low maintenance, cheap to fill up, nice and small so you find parking spots, etc. You also get preferential treatment at some places such as HOV traffic lanes, up front parking at some places, etc.

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#2447423 - 02/06/18 12:46 PM Re: Interesting analysis of Tesla......... [Re: AndyF]
oldjonny Offline
top fuel

Registered: 02/12/07
Posts: 1992
Loc: Michigan
Originally Posted By AndyF
I wouldn't buy a new EV but this Leaf was sitting on the used car lot for $8000 and it only had 20,000 miles on it so I grabbed it. It is a heck of a car for 8 grand. There aren't very many new cars that you can find for 8 grand with only 20K miles on them but the electric cars seem to depreciate like a rock.

I figured it was a super good buy and so far I've been right. I'm not into the politics of EV vs. ICE, in fact I spend most of my time working on big block stroker engines. I guess my point is that if people put aside all of the politics and just focus on what might be good for them, you might be surprised.

If you have a need for a second (or third) car in your house then a used EV might be a very good deal. It is a great car for a teen driver or a stay at home mom who runs a bunch of errands around town. Also a good car for retired folks to carry behind a motor home or something like that.

Cheap to buy, low maintenance, cheap to fill up, nice and small so you find parking spots, etc. You also get preferential treatment at some places such as HOV traffic lanes, up front parking at some places, etc.


I did a 2-year lease on one of the Mitsubishis when they were pushing them. Was a one pay, $2400 for 2 years. Local power company (read TAXPAYER SUBSIDY) paid for me adding the necessary charging station. Worked for what it was and got me 2 more years out of the Silverado that my wife was driving that was falling apart. Was it practical...No, not really. Was it cheap (since 'someone' was subsidizing it)....yup. Was I ready to go out and buy one....NOPE. Funny thing was, at the end of the least they tried to convince me to buy it....for $17K. Meanwhile, other ones that already had been turned in were selling for less than $10K and now are selling for WAY less than $10K.

Without the right conditions and the right amount of 'someone's' money being shoveled into the pit, they are not ready.
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#2447456 - 02/06/18 01:56 PM Re: Interesting analysis of Tesla......... [Re: AndyF]
DaveRS23 Offline
master

Registered: 01/20/03
Posts: 4680
Loc: Benton, IL.
Andy, the fact that you got such a bargain says a lot about these vehicles. EVs and hybrids are still a bit too nitchy for most of us. There is very little after-market support which means you are usually at the mercy of the manufacturer when it comes to parts and service after the warranty period.

I interact with new car dealerships on a regular basis and can tell you from first hand experience that they are generally weak on electrical diagnosis and repair. We are rural here and there is not an independent repair shop anywhere around that will touch one. So, one's only choice for service is the dealer. Not a pleasant thought.

There are some good bargains on these things if a person shops around. And for a few people in the right situation, that is good thing. But overall, it speaks to the limited marketability they actually have.

EVs may be the future, but that future is not today.
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#2448837 - 02/08/18 09:21 PM Re: Interesting analysis of Tesla......... [Re: DaveRS23]
AndyF Offline
Too Many Posts

Registered: 01/20/03
Posts: 24355
Loc: Oregon
Yeah I wouldn't drive an EV as my only car but it is the perfect 2nd or 3rd car. Maybe I'm lucky but I've had zero issues with mine. My wife and I use it all day long to run errands around town. I'll take it downtown Portland (40 mile round trip drive) if the battery if full but that is limit of how far I'll go. But 99% of the places I need to go during a regular day are within a 10 mile radius so it works for me. If I lived out in the boondocks then the car would be useless. A lot of the companies around here have charging stations at work so that doubles the range if you drive to work. I'd drive it 30 miles to work if I could charge up there.

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#2448917 - 02/08/18 11:46 PM Re: Interesting analysis of Tesla......... [Re: DaveRS23]
Frankenduster Offline
Moparts proctologist

Registered: 02/15/10
Posts: 15311
Loc: Granite Bay CA
Elon Musk...


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#2448920 - 02/08/18 11:51 PM Re: Interesting analysis of Tesla......... [Re: AndyF]
hooziewhatsit Offline
master

Registered: 10/05/07
Posts: 2811
Loc: State of Jefferson
Originally Posted By AndyF
Yeah I wouldn't drive an EV as my only car but it is the perfect 2nd or 3rd car. Maybe I'm lucky but I've had zero issues with mine. My wife and I use it all day long to run errands around town. I'll take it downtown Portland (40 mile round trip drive) if the battery if full but that is limit of how far I'll go. But 99% of the places I need to go during a regular day are within a 10 mile radius so it works for me. If I lived out in the boondocks then the car would be useless. A lot of the companies around here have charging stations at work so that doubles the range if you drive to work. I'd drive it 30 miles to work if I could charge up there.


What range is yours rated for (what year is it)? How would your usage change if it had 2 or 3 hundred miles per charge?
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If you ever find yourself in a fair fight, your tactics suck.

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#2449091 - 02/09/18 11:02 AM Re: Interesting analysis of Tesla......... [Re: Guitar Jones]
Not_A_Duster Offline
master

Registered: 06/03/03
Posts: 7507
Loc: SK. Canada
Originally Posted By Guitar Jones


Gasoline engines will run on alcohol, diesel engines will run on vegetable oil. Who needs fossil fuels?


You don't actually think they would let you do that? That runs completely contrary to the social engineering that's behind all this.

Any alternative to the "plan" be that bio-fuels or carbon capture projects like the one we have here will not be tolerated. Freedom to make your own choices does not fit within the agenda.

As for the future of fuel alternatives:

https://www.producer.com/2018/02/milligan-biofuels-shuttered/

There was a lot of excitement about this plant and others 10-15 years ago.... then came the era of low-sulfur diesel fuels.
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#2449929 - 02/10/18 11:44 PM Re: Interesting analysis of Tesla......... [Re: hooziewhatsit]
AndyF Offline
Too Many Posts

Registered: 01/20/03
Posts: 24355
Loc: Oregon
Originally Posted By hooziewhatsit
Originally Posted By AndyF
Yeah I wouldn't drive an EV as my only car but it is the perfect 2nd or 3rd car. Maybe I'm lucky but I've had zero issues with mine. My wife and I use it all day long to run errands around town. I'll take it downtown Portland (40 mile round trip drive) if the battery if full but that is limit of how far I'll go. But 99% of the places I need to go during a regular day are within a 10 mile radius so it works for me. If I lived out in the boondocks then the car would be useless. A lot of the companies around here have charging stations at work so that doubles the range if you drive to work. I'd drive it 30 miles to work if I could charge up there.


What range is yours rated for (what year is it)? How would your usage change if it had 2 or 3 hundred miles per charge?


Mine is a 2104 Leaf with a quote 84 mile range. Actual range is more like 60 miles in the real world where you have hills and are using the heater, headlights, stereo, etc.

If the real range was 200 miles then I'd use the car for longer trips. It is a small car so I probably wouldn't use it for really long trips even if it had a lot of range just because there isn't much room to haul stuff.


Edited by AndyF (02/10/18 11:44 PM)

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#2450122 - 02/11/18 12:49 PM Re: Interesting analysis of Tesla......... [Re: Not_A_Duster]
a12rag Offline
top fuel

Registered: 04/23/07
Posts: 2101
Loc: Calgary, Alberta Canada
Originally Posted By Not_A_Duster
Originally Posted By Guitar Jones


Gasoline engines will run on alcohol, diesel engines will run on vegetable oil. Who needs fossil fuels?


You don't actually think they would let you do that? That runs completely contrary to the social engineering that's behind all this.

Any alternative to the "plan" be that bio-fuels or carbon capture projects like the one we have here will not be tolerated. Freedom to make your own choices does not fit within the agenda.

As for the future of fuel alternatives:

https://www.producer.com/2018/02/milligan-biofuels-shuttered/

There was a lot of excitement about this plant and others 10-15 years ago.... then came the era of low-sulfur diesel fuels.


You nailed it on the head : SOCIAL ENGINEERING !!! . . . .As for Tesla, think the latest is that they posted a $642Million loss !!! . . . if they can to that, then the board of Milligan should start looking for government handouts !!! I am sure the Alberta NDP government will spend that carbon tax of ours to save the plant !!!

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#2491599 - 05/03/18 03:45 PM Re: Interesting analysis of Tesla......... [Re: DaveRS23]
AndyF Offline
Too Many Posts

Registered: 01/20/03
Posts: 24355
Loc: Oregon
Tesla seems to be getting into a bit of trouble with investors. They are burning cash and don't appear to have enough money on hand to keep operations going much longer. The stock price is starting to take some hits. I'm predicting it will end in a merger at some point. Musk doesn't have enough money to keep it afloat by himself.

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#2491661 - 05/03/18 05:54 PM Re: Interesting analysis of Tesla......... [Re: AndyF]
DaveRS23 Offline
master

Registered: 01/20/03
Posts: 4680
Loc: Benton, IL.
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#2491666 - 05/03/18 05:58 PM Re: Interesting analysis of Tesla......... [Re: AndyF]
Diego (not Ted) Offline


Registered: 01/21/03
Posts: 22004
Loc: Gabba Gabba Hey! NYC
I continue to wonder why people cheer for the death of an American brand. shruggy

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#2491668 - 05/03/18 06:02 PM Re: Interesting analysis of Tesla......... [Re: DaveRS23]
hooziewhatsit Offline
master

Registered: 10/05/07
Posts: 2811
Loc: State of Jefferson
Because Tesla is pushing a pretty significant change, and change is hard and scary to a lot of people (maybe a cry box would help? laugh2).

If they continue to figure out the model 3 production line and keep cranking towards 5k+ a week, it looks like they'll be just fine by the end of the year.
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If you ever find yourself in a fair fight, your tactics suck.

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#2491672 - 05/03/18 06:08 PM Re: Interesting analysis of Tesla......... [Re: DaveRS23]
VS29H0B Offline
pro stock

Registered: 07/22/03
Posts: 1353
Loc: USA
The situation with Tesla is the securing of the necessary capitol to continue. Most well connected analysts believe that Musk has only one more chance with securing capitol to continue his car building operations.

After the next capitol go-around, most feel it is over for Tesla.

Unless there is a huge battery efficiency breakthrough, the cost for car batteries is in the range of $100 dollars per kwh. So unless the batteries cost drop dramatically, Tesla is stuck with those expenses in building their cars, the same as other competitors (GM, Audi, VW, Daimler, Ford, Porsche and the Asians).

Today, due to poor car building processes, Tesla takes approximately 5X the amount of time to produce one Tesla Model 3 compared to a Chevy Bolt. In other words, Musk's operating expenses/costs to build his cars are way higher than revenue/income from sales, his execution is flawed - costs are higher than revenue for Tesla.

With competitors listed above starting to get seriously invested in electric vehicles, Tesla will have stand up to the new competitors in the marketplace. And those competitors have mature processes and efficient methods of car building due to their experience in car assembly and quality control.

My money would not be on Tesla to survive the competitor onslaught. Elon does not want to talk about building cars, he wants to talk about going to Neptune.


Edited by VS29H0B (05/03/18 06:19 PM)
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