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#2446244 - 02/04/18 11:58 AM Interesting analysis of Tesla.........
DaveRS23 Offline
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Registered: 01/20/03
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Edited by DaveRS23 (02/04/18 11:59 AM)
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#2446258 - 02/04/18 12:24 PM Re: Interesting analysis of Tesla......... [Re: DaveRS23]
Not_A_Duster Offline
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Registered: 06/03/03
Posts: 7509
Loc: SK. Canada
I usually get annoyed at being forced to watch 10 minutes of video where I could have read the same information in 3 minutes.

But that was worth the time spent.

I would like to know more about the credentials of the speaker, however....what he has accomplished. He certainly seems to have it in for Musk:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uhMnQCAU658


Edited by Not_A_Duster (02/04/18 12:29 PM)
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#2446304 - 02/04/18 01:30 PM Re: Interesting analysis of Tesla......... [Re: DaveRS23]
Grizzly Offline
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Registered: 08/24/05
Posts: 4900
Loc: at work
Nothing to see there except another jealous individual that wishes they were the Winner in the electric car business and living Elon's life. What else is new?

In other news, a 48 volt assist system coming in the new Ram. Apparently 11% increase in fuel mileage.....so about 2 mpg better in a full-size half-ton.

Because, this electric stuff is not the future and really has no place in a segment that moves 600,000 units a year. The Big 3 always get it wrong smirk

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#2446314 - 02/04/18 01:56 PM Re: Interesting analysis of Tesla......... [Re: Grizzly]
tahoechallenge Offline
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Registered: 08/19/05
Posts: 306
Loc: Kings Beach, CA
I am excited to see the Tesla semi truck. If the performance is accurate it will be a game changer. I drive a Freightliner service truck in the Sierra Nevada mountains everyday. I can only go about 50 mph on a 6 percent grade. Most of the other loaded trucks can only go about 45 mph. Tesla claims that their truck will pull 6 percent grades at 65 mph! If that is true the trucking industry will change overnight. No one likes getting their doors blown off!

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#2446341 - 02/04/18 02:23 PM Re: Interesting analysis of Tesla......... [Re: Grizzly]
Supercuda Offline
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Registered: 09/04/07
Posts: 13821
Loc: up yours
Originally Posted By Grizzly
Nothing to see there except another jealous individual that wishes they were the Winner in the electric car business and living Elon's life. What else is new?

In other news, a 48 volt assist system coming in the new Ram. Apparently 11% increase in fuel mileage.....so about 2 mpg better in a full-size half-ton.

Because, this electric stuff is not the future and really has no place in a segment that moves 600,000 units a year. The Big 3 always get it wrong smirk



Electric cars are not being done because the Big 3 want to do them. They are being mandated by government decree and we all know what winners the government picks, the ones who win in last place.

As PT Barnum is supposed to have said "There's a sucker born every minute".

Or as Lincoln is supposed to have observed "You can fool all the people some of the time and some of the people all the time, but you cannot fool all the people all the time."

As of right now, it's a niche market. Things may change one the perennial battery issues are solved, ones that have been there for over 100 years now. Range and recharge time.
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#2446479 - 02/04/18 05:39 PM Re: Interesting analysis of Tesla......... [Re: tahoechallenge]
hooziewhatsit Offline
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Registered: 10/05/07
Posts: 2845
Loc: State of Jefferson
That was an interesting video.

"The money followed the investment." Guess we'll see how long they need to invest before they start making the money wink

Although like he says Amazon didn't make money until they released AWS, Tesla is becoming more of an energy company. The battery in Australia made its owners a million dollars over a few days a few weeks ago. Now they're planning a huge distributed solar & storage system in Australia, that will no doubt pay for itself through lower electricity prices.

Originally Posted By tahoechallenge
I am excited to see the Tesla semi truck. If the performance is accurate it will be a game changer. I drive a Freightliner service truck in the Sierra Nevada mountains everyday. I can only go about 50 mph on a 6 percent grade. Most of the other loaded trucks can only go about 45 mph. Tesla claims that their truck will pull 6 percent grades at 65 mph! If that is true the trucking industry will change overnight. No one likes getting their doors blown off!


And coming down the other side it will recharge too! How many miles do you drive in an average day?

I saw an interesting quote the other day in an article about electricity prices in the early 2020's. "The only thing more powerful than partisanship in the US is money."

When EVs are cheap enough, good enough, and lower the cost of ownership enough, they'll sell themselves.

https://electrek.co/2018/02/03/all-electric-ferry-cuts-emission-cost/

Yea, the title focuses on emissions, but going electric also cut the cost of operation by 80%! If your competitors have their cost lowered by that much, you're going to lose unless you catch up.
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#2446480 - 02/04/18 05:41 PM Re: Interesting analysis of Tesla......... [Re: DaveRS23]
Grizzly Offline
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Registered: 08/24/05
Posts: 4900
Loc: at work
Uh huh.

We'll see "niche market" 10 years from now.

Go ahead, be close-minded to an obviously wanted shift away from Big Oil.

You'll look real smart just like the Old Windbag in the video who wishes he bought Tesla stock. twocents

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#2446502 - 02/04/18 06:11 PM Re: Interesting analysis of Tesla......... [Re: Grizzly]
Not_A_Duster Offline
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Registered: 06/03/03
Posts: 7509
Loc: SK. Canada
Originally Posted By Grizzly
Uh huh.

We'll see "niche market" 10 years from now.

Go ahead, be close-minded to an obviously wanted shift away from Big Oil.

You'll look real smart just like the Old Windbag in the video who wishes he bought Tesla stock. twocents



From the bit of research I've done since this was posted, the "old windbag" knows more about the flow of money and the viability of business than either you or me. I would be more inclined to follow his advice than yours if I was looking to make a direct investment. I've looked back a bit at some of his history, and he has seemed to be right on the money far more often than not.

Now my own impression of Elon Musk has always been that he is primarily a slimy con-man on a grand scale....so maybe my perspective is being a bit skewed by that. I guess we will just have to wait and see.

Assuming the Marxists who are driving this EV revolution win the day and you won't be given the choice to buy fuel for your old Mopar....you are okay with that?

I assume you own one? Will you be content to keep it as a garage ornament, never able to use it again?

Because never forget: the end game here is the total elimination of fossil fuels and our access to it, in order to collapse the resource based economy, crippling free markets.



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#2446505 - 02/04/18 06:16 PM Re: Interesting analysis of Tesla......... [Re: Grizzly]
NewbombTurkk Offline
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Registered: 01/31/03
Posts: 3830
Loc: West Virginia
[quote=Grizzly]Uh huh.

We'll see "niche market" 10 years from now.

Go ahead, be close-minded to an obviously wanted shift away from Big Oil.

You'll look real smart just like the Old Windbag in the video who wishes he bought Tesla stock. twocents

[/quote


The only people who want to shift from big oil are rich investors with an agenda looking for the taxpayer teat.........electric cars are a fad for yuppie treehuggers and bored trust fund activists who cannot figure out that fossil fuels or nuclear is recharging their overpriced junk.

Wind and solar are also unfeasible unless Uncle Sam is footing the bill or it isa scam (see Solyndra under Barry).

Environmental engineer here for 28 years who has some common sense. The US has enough nat gas and oil here to last for centuries.......both of which burn ultra clean now. So quit trying to take cheap transportation away from the next generation under the guise of clean air or man made warming.......

Sad but I have seen the evolution of the EPA in 1990 issuing the clean air act updates to the right wing political tool as it is today. It happened mainly with bush and then Barry escalated it to a new low. Uber rich donors with agendas now make their own EPA policy with blatant disregard for jobs or the environment it is supposed to protect.

I've been in LA recently and there is no buffet brown LA haze anymore nor is the Cuyahoga River ablaze. Electric cars will never be feasible on their own...period.
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#2446526 - 02/04/18 06:50 PM Re: Interesting analysis of Tesla......... [Re: Grizzly]
Spaceman Spiff Offline
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Registered: 11/28/10
Posts: 3332
Loc: jersey
Originally Posted By Grizzly
Uh huh.

We'll see "niche market" 10 years from now.

Go ahead, be close-minded to an obviously wanted shift away from Big Oil.

You'll look real smart just like the Old Windbag in the video who wishes he bought Tesla stock. twocents



How much Tesla stock have you purchased?
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#2446535 - 02/04/18 07:10 PM Re: Interesting analysis of Tesla......... [Re: NewbombTurkk]
hooziewhatsit Offline
master

Registered: 10/05/07
Posts: 2845
Loc: State of Jefferson
Originally Posted By NewbombTurkk
Wind and solar are also unfeasible unless Uncle Sam is footing the bill or it isa scam (see Solyndra under Barry).


So we have enough Natural Gas for "centuries". Then what? All that energy originally came from the sun. Why don't we just use the sun's energy directly?

Here's a quote from the article I linked above.

Quote:
The latest is Jim Robo, CEO of NextEra Energy, a giant energy company with subsidiaries that include Florida Power & Light (America’s third-largest utility, with 4.8 million customers) and NextEra Energy Resources, which boasts of being “the world’s largest generator of renewable energy from the wind and sun.”
On a Q4 earnings conference call on Friday, Robo predicted that by the early 2020s, it will be cheaper to build new renewables than to continue running existing coal and nuclear plants. That’s ... crazy.
This wasn’t some aspirational post on the company blog, either; it was a call with investors, to whom Robo is legally beholden. And it comes on the heels of other mind-boggling news from the utility sector, like a solicitation for energy bids in Colorado that turned up renewables+storage projects that will come within striking distance of existing coal plants by the early 2020s.
Let’s take a look at the startling numbers Robo mentioned and then dig a little deeper into his comments.
First, the headline numbers. Here are the costs Robo anticipates “early in the next decade”:
Unsubsidized new wind: 2.0-2.5 cents per kilowatt-hour
Unsubsidized new solar: 3.0-4.0 cents per kilowatt-hour
Variable operating costs of existing coal or nuclear plants: 3.5-5.0 cents per kilowatt-hour

If those predictions hold up, it is game over for coal (and nuclear, unless it gets support based on its low carbon emissions, as in New York). No one will ever build another coal plant in America, and the ones still running would likely shut down sooner than scheduled.


Unless you're willing to pay more on your power bill so you can get your power from Fossil Fuels, renewables are coming, because they're cheaper.
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#2446536 - 02/04/18 07:14 PM Re: Interesting analysis of Tesla......... [Re: Not_A_Duster]
Guitar Jones Offline
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Registered: 12/18/09
Posts: 9937
Loc: in a cattle trailer down by th...
Originally Posted By Not_A_Duster
Originally Posted By Grizzly
Uh huh.

We'll see "niche market" 10 years from now.

Go ahead, be close-minded to an obviously wanted shift away from Big Oil.

You'll look real smart just like the Old Windbag in the video who wishes he bought Tesla stock. twocents



From the bit of research I've done since this was posted, the "old windbag" knows more about the flow of money and the viability of business than either you or me. I would be more inclined to follow his advice than yours if I was looking to make a direct investment. I've looked back a bit at some of his history, and he has seemed to be right on the money far more often than not.

Now my own impression of Elon Musk has always been that he is primarily a slimy con-man on a grand scale....so maybe my perspective is being a bit skewed by that. I guess we will just have to wait and see.

Assuming the Marxists who are driving this EV revolution win the day and you won't be given the choice to buy fuel for your old Mopar....you are okay with that?

I assume you own one? Will you be content to keep it as a garage ornament, never able to use it again?

Because never forget: the end game here is the total elimination of fossil fuels and our access to it, in order to collapse the resource based economy, crippling free markets.





Gasoline engines will run on alcohol, diesel engines will run on vegetable oil. Who needs fossil fuels?
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#2446555 - 02/04/18 07:50 PM Re: Interesting analysis of Tesla......... [Re: Grizzly]
Supercuda Offline
I Live Here

Registered: 09/04/07
Posts: 13821
Loc: up yours
Originally Posted By Grizzly
Uh huh.

We'll see "niche market" 10 years from now.

Go ahead, be close-minded to an obviously wanted shift away from Big Oil.

You'll look real smart just like the Old Windbag in the video who wishes he bought Tesla stock. twocents



Nothing more sanctimonious than a true believer.
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They say there is always the exception that proves the rule.
Don't be the exception.

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#2446568 - 02/04/18 08:25 PM Re: Interesting analysis of Tesla......... [Re: hooziewhatsit]
NewbombTurkk Offline
master

Registered: 01/31/03
Posts: 3830
Loc: West Virginia
Originally Posted By hooziewhatsit
Originally Posted By NewbombTurkk
Wind and solar are also unfeasible unless Uncle Sam is footing the bill or it isa scam (see Solyndra under Barry).


So we have enough Natural Gas for "centuries". Then what? All that energy originally came from the sun. Why don't we just use the sun's energy directly?

Here's a quote from the article I linked above.

Quote:
The latest is Jim Robo, CEO of NextEra Energy, a giant energy company with subsidiaries that include Florida Power & Light (America’s third-largest utility, with 4.8 million customers) and NextEra Energy Resources, which boasts of being “the world’s largest generator of renewable energy from the wind and sun.”
On a Q4 earnings conference call on Friday, Robo predicted that by the early 2020s, it will be cheaper to build new renewables than to continue running existing coal and nuclear plants. That’s ... crazy.
This wasn’t some aspirational post on the company blog, either; it was a call with investors, to whom Robo is legally beholden. And it comes on the heels of other mind-boggling news from the utility sector, like a solicitation for energy bids in Colorado that turned up renewables+storage projects that will come within striking distance of existing coal plants by the early 2020s.
Let’s take a look at the startling numbers Robo mentioned and then dig a little deeper into his comments.
First, the headline numbers. Here are the costs Robo anticipates “early in the next decade”:
Unsubsidized new wind: 2.0-2.5 cents per kilowatt-hour
Unsubsidized new solar: 3.0-4.0 cents per kilowatt-hour
Variable operating costs of existing coal or nuclear plants: 3.5-5.0 cents per kilowatt-hour

If those predictions hold up, it is game over for coal (and nuclear, unless it gets support based on its low carbon emissions, as in New York). No one will ever build another coal plant in America, and the ones still running would likely shut down sooner than scheduled.


Unless you're willing to pay more on your power bill so you can get your power from Fossil Fuels, renewables are coming, because they're cheaper.



Renewables are cheaper? Then where are they? That statement shows your level of acumen on the topic as a whole. For a large spread out country like the US, fossil fuels is all we have that are feasible...until something else comes along that the bottom 99.9 percent can afford, keep dreaming and hugging that maple.
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#2446692 - 02/05/18 12:31 AM Re: Interesting analysis of Tesla......... [Re: Guitar Jones]
hooziewhatsit Offline
master

Registered: 10/05/07
Posts: 2845
Loc: State of Jefferson
Originally Posted By NewbombTurkk
Renewables are cheaper? Then where are they? That statement shows your level of acumen on the topic as a whole. For a large spread out country like the US, fossil fuels is all we have that are feasible...until something else comes along that the bottom 99.9 percent can afford, keep dreaming and hugging that maple.


My level of acumen is based on facts, not feelings laugh2

Open this, and scroll down to the first chart on page 2 of the document. What do you see for costs of coal and nat gas versus utility scale solar? Obviously you should do your due diligence on their numbers.
https://www.lazard.com/media/450337/lazard-levelized-cost-of-energy-version-110.pdf

Rome wasn't built overnight. It's only been the last few years that renewables have scaled enough that their prices have dropped significantly. The article I quoted above is talking about the early 2020's, so call it 5 years from now. These installs take time to plan and build (just like FF plants). It's no real surprise that now that prices are low, that it will be a few more years until they really show up.

There is currently 20GW of wind installed in Texas (or ~12% of their usage). By the end of this year, there will probably be more wind capacity than coal capacity in Texas.

-------------

As for Tesla and their business model, I recognize that their books don't look great when viewed through the lens of a traditional company. But, they aren't a traditional company. They have very long term goals, and their investors realize that.

Originally Posted By Guitar Jones
Gasoline engines will run on alcohol, diesel engines will run on vegetable oil. Who needs fossil fuels?

Good point laugh2
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#2446747 - 02/05/18 08:50 AM Re: Interesting analysis of Tesla......... [Re: hooziewhatsit]
DaveRS23 Offline
master

Registered: 01/20/03
Posts: 4733
Loc: Benton, IL.
Originally Posted By hooziewhatsit
[quote=NewbombTurkk]

Quote:
[b][/b]
If those predictions hold up, it is game over for coal (and nuclear, unless it gets support based on its low carbon emissions, as in New York). No one will ever build another coal plant in America, and the ones still running would likely shut down sooner than scheduled.


Unless you're willing to pay more on your power bill so you can get your power from Fossil Fuels, renewables are coming, because they're cheaper.


Why doesn't Japan see it that way?

http://www.abc.net.au/news/rural/2017-01-31/japan-coal-power-plants/8224302
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#2446755 - 02/05/18 09:09 AM Re: Interesting analysis of Tesla......... [Re: DaveRS23]
Rhinodart Online   penguin-006
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Registered: 01/20/03
Posts: 36794
Loc: Round Lake Beach, Illinoisy
Because they had a China Syndrome recently... eek
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#2446855 - 02/05/18 11:33 AM Re: Interesting analysis of Tesla......... [Re: Rhinodart]
hooziewhatsit Offline
master

Registered: 10/05/07
Posts: 2845
Loc: State of Jefferson
Originally Posted By Rhinodart
Because they had a China Syndrome recently... eek

Yep, knee-jerk reactions are rarely rational. The problem with Fukashima isn't so much Nuclear, as it is having the backup generators under ground in a flood/Tsunami zone.

In related nuclear news, Nuscale doesn't have to comply with regulations that aren't applicable to their design, which is a pretty huge deal.
https://www.utilitydive.com/news/small-n...-system/514470/
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#2446882 - 02/05/18 12:18 PM Re: Interesting analysis of Tesla......... [Re: DaveRS23]
a12rag Offline
top fuel

Registered: 04/23/07
Posts: 2127
Loc: Calgary, Alberta Canada
as was mentioned, it takes a prime mover force of some kind to turn a generator to product electricity . . . boil water for steam - need heat from "something" - coal, oil, natural gas, nuclear. Hydroelectric - build a dam and use force of water, or "run of river". Wind - build EXPENSIVE turbines all over the windy place (but wind does not always blow!) . . .

There is a base level of generation needed and then a "peak" amount for the huge demands at certain times . . .

Check out thorium nuclear . . . it is safe, not requiring huge infrastructure for cooling, and will shut off in emergency !!! Admiral Rickover is reason we have the water cooled reactors, that produce plutonium which is used in nuclear weapons ! Thorium reactors do not produce weapons waste, also the time for waste products is 100 of years, versus thousands !!

With thorium producing electricity, then take COAL (yes I said it), which in north America we have over a 500 year supply ! And make synthetic fuel . . . cutting off the middle east !! No money spent with foreign countries that want to kill us . . . see how OPEC does with that !!! . . .

But the politicians obfuscate the reality of it all, because of their agenda, or their donors agenda . . . we are all just the great unwashed masses that have no say in changing it . . .

ok, rant off . . . . but I do agree with the youtube . . . Tesla and Musk are only really good at getting government funding !! Take that all away, and Tesla goes bye bye . . . selling cars that are over $100k, AND STILL CAN'T MAKE MONEY !!! . . . ???????

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#2446941 - 02/05/18 01:56 PM Re: Interesting analysis of Tesla......... [Re: DaveRS23]
NewbombTurkk Offline
master

Registered: 01/31/03
Posts: 3830
Loc: West Virginia
Tesla/Musk: Give donations in order to get TAX dollars free, ie....JOKE

Solyndra: Fake solar panel company received 100's of millions of TAX dollars...Bigger Joke.

Local Sheetz Store with 8 Tesla charging poles: I made a comment to the manager about never seeing a car plugged up. He said they had to build them or lose out on a TAX credit of some kind. I guess they make good pigeon roosts.

Corn-a-hol additive to gas: TAX dollars to ethanol makers in the Midwest...EVEN THOUGH it takes more BTU's to make ethanol that it actually contributes to your car.......A REAL BIG JOKE....but EPA mandated?????? The carbon footprint to make the ethanol is bigger than just burning straight fuel......duh?

NUCLEAR: by far the cleanest energy source, at least feasible one, left. Tree huggers with bad hygiene have unfortunately made sure that no more nuke plants will be built in the US.....even though we had a place called Yucca Mt to store 500 yrs worth of spent rods.

R-12 to R-134A: HHMMMMMM.......the patent is getting ready to expire on R-12, so maybe we can buy off the EPA to all of a sudden find R-12 to cause huge ozone layer holes...and replace it with our NEW formula, R-134A!!!!! Chemical properties being nearly identical not be considered!!!

Looks like decisions are really made with common sense and the environmental impact first!! Lets build a 100K car that nobody wants or can afford!


Edited by NewbombTurkk (02/05/18 01:58 PM)
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